It is no secret why being marketable is important – it’s what keeps the UFC in business and allows the sport to grow. While marketable doesn’t always equal the most deserving fighter getting his title shot it is what ultimately allows any fight to happen in the first place.
So what makes a marketable fight? The most obvious answer is having two very marketable fighters fight each other. Also just as important is the circumstances that revolve around the fight. Think about the two fights that headlined the two biggest fight cards in UFC history.
It was just announced that UFC 91, which featured Couture-Lesnar, did over one million buys – coming in second behind UFC 66, which featured Liddell-Ortiz 2. In each situation the perfect marketing storm formed with all the elements coming together.
Let’s take a look at the top 7 marketable fights that could happen in 2009. I use the word could because the fights range from already happening to fights that require certain factors play out.
All fights listed have at least a microscopic chance of happening so use your imagination.
I will also predict the PPV buy rates just for fun. While buy rates are affected by the strength of the overall fight card, big numbers are inspired by the main event. Keep in mind these are fights that bring in all fans – not just the hardcore ones.
The Top 10
10. Anderson Silva vs. LHW Challenger
Conveniently, Anderson Silva couldn’t fight in time for UFC 95 and would rather fight in April. That sets him up for a fight with one of the UFC 92 LHW losers. I will let you decide which opponent would give the UFC their best PPV buy rate: Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, Rampage Jackson, or Wanderlei Silva. I am sure we all have our favorites – my vote is for Silva vs. Silva.
PPV buys: 500,000-600,000…This fight could certainly do more buys but we don’t know what kind of PPV numbers Anderson Silva will pull at light heavyweight – hopefully better then he did at middleweight. He has never done more then 400,000 PPV buys but he has also never fighters like the ones listed here.
9. Forrest Griffin vs. Rampage Jackson II
These two fought at UFC 86 with no real co-main event and it did 520,000 PPV numbers. The fight ended in controversy and fans have been clamoring for a rematch ever since. If Forrest gets by Rashad Evans and Rampage gets by Wanderlei Silva then this fight will definitely happen.
PPV buys: 600,000…People would love to see a rematch so it should do better numbers then the first fight did – but would Forrest-Wanderlei do better?
8. Georges St. Pierre vs. Anderson Silva
These two fighters don’t have the mainstream pull of someone like Randy Couture or Chuck Liddell – but put them together and you have a superfight. St. Pierre’s best draw was 525,000 PPV buys at UFC 83 which featured his rematch with Matt Serra. Ironically, Silva’s best draw was around 400,000 at UFC 67 which featured his non title fight with Travis Lutter.
PPV buys: 650,000…Neither of these fighters has ever done this many buys on their own but with the superfight 1 + 1 = 2.5 (not quite 3). If it’s not a middleweight title fight they should break the rules and make it a five round fight.
7. Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva II
Their first fight at UFC 79 drew upward of 700,000 PPV buys. The fight card also featured St. Pierre-Hughes II which definitely added to the numbers, but this was all about Liddell-Silva. A rematch would be a guilty pleasure – who wouldn’t enjoy watching them go at it one more time.
PPV buys: 650,000…This fight most likely happens if Wanderlei loses to Rampage at UFC 92. This time make it five rounds though.
6/ 5. Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir II/ Lesnar vs. Nog
Brock Lesnar is a proven PPV draw. His three fights in 2008 combined for over 2 million PPV buys. Lesnar-Mir 1, at UFC 81, drew around 650,000 PPV buys. Their rematch would be a title fight and both fighters’ marketability has only skyrocketed since. A fight with Nog would also be big – but not quite as huge.
PPV buys: 750,000/675,000…Both of these fights could very well do more. For the first fight to happen Mir will have to beat Nog which I don’t think will happen. A Lesnar-Mir rematch does more PPV buys but, regardless, both fights make the list.
4. Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture IV
A lot of hardcore fans aren’t really interested in seeing this fight – and it seems like neither fighter is either. But most mainstream fans weren’t around for the first three fights. This would be their chance to see the UFC hall of famers go at it before they both retire.
PPV buys: 800, 000…This fight only happens if both fighters end up wanting it – and the UFC makes it worth their while. The fight would work well as both of their farewell fights, or just maybe their next – only time will tell.
3. Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn II
These two fighters might have the most loyal fan base in all of MMA. The PPV buys from Canada and Hawaii alone could carry this fight card. They will most likely get a few more from Mainland USA though. The big question is: will it break the coveted one million PPV buy rate.
PPV buys: 850, 000…While the fight will be huge I don’t see it getting near the 1 million buy rate. It will still be one of the biggest fights in UFC history and could potentially be No. 2 on this list. GSP will win set up the GSP-Silva superfight at the end of 2009. Penn fights Florian.
2. Brock Lesnar vs. Randy Couture II
The first fight did huge numbers – especially with current economic conditions. A rematch could do even better numbers. For this fight to take place two things need to happen. Couture needs to win one or two fights to get another title shot or Brock Lesnar needs to lose against the winner of Nog-Mir which would set up an obvious No. 1 contender fight between the two. The first scenario would obviously draw better PPV numbers.
PPV buys: 1million…I am picking Brock Lesnar to beat Noguiera in the HW tournament. Couture will beat Mir or Gonzaga and get his rematch with Lesnar. Brock wins and Couture retires/or fights Liddell (fight predictions are subject to change).
1. Brock Lesnar vs. Chuck Liddell
I said microscopic right – well this fight might have a better chance then you think. Sure a lot of hardcore fans may cringe but this article is about what would sell the most PPV buys. And that means bringing in mainstream fans. So how does this fight happen?
The UFC hasn’t given up on a Liddell-Couture fight just yet. I think the winner of that fight would be given to Brock Lesnar – whether he wins the mini-tournament or not. So if Liddell and Couture do decide to fight – and Liddell wins – we could be looking at Lesnar-Liddell in 2009
PPV Buys: 1.2 million…No one was giving Liddell a chance against Anderson Silva so do you give him one against Lesnar. Liddell has great takedown defense and could probably interest Lesnar in a stand up fight. Lesnar could easily knock out Liddell, like he knocked out Couture, but Liddell could also knock out Lesnar right? It would be the biggest PPV in UFC history.
-So those are my 10 most marketable fights of 2009. Do you have a fight you think would sell more pay-per-views then one on the list? I would love to hear your match ups. 2009 will be a great year and should easily top 2008.
