HBO serves up this year’s first pay-per-view and it’s a huge crapfest. Miguel Cotto and Kelly Pavlik are both looking to rebound from their first career loss in Saturday night’s co-feature event. Neither man is taking much of a risk in his comeback and it makes for a lackluster feel going into the event. In this split-site doubleheader, Miguel Cotto will fight Michael Jennings in New York while Kelly Pavlik defends his titles against Marco Antonio Rubio in Pavlik’s hometown of Youngstown, Ohio.
Miguel Cotto vs. Michael Jennings (WBO Welterweight Title)
Money Line: Cotto -1500; Jennings +750
Miguel Cotto was on quite a roll before his thrilling loss to Antonio Margarito last year, a fight that now has a plaster-like cloud hanging over it. Now Cotto has a chance to regain a welterweight title after Paul Williams vacated the WBO version. He will be doing so against Michael Jennings, a mystery of a welterweight that will be taking his first fight outside of the United Kingdom.
Fight Prediction
Trent: Come on, really? Michael Jennings isn’t even a household name in the Jennings household. I can’t pretend to know anything about Michael Jennings. Miguel Cotto is a bruising warrior coming off of a tough loss. It may not matter if we know who Michael Jennings is going into the fight because we may not be able to recognize him after the fight. Cotto is going to bludgeon this chap and finish things for good in the 5th round.
Corey: In his first fight since being annihilated by Antonio Margarito, who may or may not have loaded his gloves to get the job done, Miguel Cotto is taking on Britain’s Michael Jennings, who is a virtual unknown on the world circuit but is usually described as a stylish boxer with little pop. Thus, he’s the perfect opponent for a guy like Cotto, who’s coming off his first knockout loss. Cotto should walk through Jennings in a fashion similar to his fight with Carlos Quintana, also a slick boxer, over two years ago. If Jennings can’t hurt Cotto, Cotto is definitely going to hurt Jennings and get him out of there under 8 rounds; call it round 7.
Kelly Pavlik vs. Marco Antonio Rubio (WBO/WBA Middleweight Title)
Money Line: Pavlik -900; Rubio +550
Kelly Pavlik is trying to rebound from a light heavyweight loss to Bernard Hopkins in making his second defense of his middleweight titles. Pavlik is a fearsome puncher with a blue-collar background that has endeared him to Midwestern America. Marco Antonio Rubio is a veteran Mexican middleweight that is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak. Rubio is an aggressive counter-puncher that has a chance to beat Pavlik if Pavlik hasn’t shaken off the funk from the Hopkins fight.
Fight Prediction
Corey: Kelly Pavlik likely won’t have as easy a night as Cotto because his opponent, Marco Antonio Rubio, can take a good shot. The trick for Pavlik will be to catch Rubio with a shot he doesn’t see coming – something Pavlik generally doesn’t do well but something that will serve him well to learn to do after being exposed as a one-dimensional slugger in his last fight out, a loss to Bernard Hopkins. The fight should be a fun little war while it lasts, but, unless he manages to catch Rubio with a sneaky shot, it will probably take Pavlik around 8 rounds to wear down and stop Rubio as well.
Trent: Did the Hopkins fight do more damage to Pavlik’s career than just handing Pavlik his first loss? If Pavlik comes out and fights Rubio with the same focus and drive he had before the Hopkins fight then he will have no problem with him. If Pavlik has lost his edge, then it will be a long night for him. My gut is telling me that once Rubio lands some shots that Pavlik will back off. My gut also told me to polish of that bag of Doritos so it’s not really the best decision maker. I’m going against my nacho cheese laden gut and taking Pavlik. He won’t get his magic back so quickly so I’m looking for a decision victory.
Fight odds from Bodog.com
