Drafting versus Free Agent Signings

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Reports are circulating that all 30 teams are interested in Dominican phenom Miguel Angel Sano. Sano will be 16 in May. Scouts are estimating that he could receive a signing bonus in excess of $3 million.

While the kid has talent and potential, is he worth $3MM? Teams think so.

I’m not questioning the kids talent, but rather the ability to mature into a MLB caliber player. Teams spend a fortune on scouting Central and South America and how many of these kids actually become MLB superstars?

Draft vs. Free Agent
I’m curious to see which is safer for baseball teams. Many teams have no problem throwing large signing bonuses at their first round picks, but the risk, in my opinion is less.

First off, college and high players play at a higher level. You know a kid like Steven Strasburg will have a better chance of succeeding in the Majors because he’s been dominating higher competition than Sano has seen. Even high schoolers have less risk – U.S. High School ball is very organized and competitive. Baseball in the Dominican is not that far along.

Another reason there is less risk is the age question. College and high school players rarely have forged birth certificates. When was the last time you heard about one of them being older than they truely are? Free agents from Cen/South America have more issues with reliable ages and names. The Washington Nationals are the most recent team to be burned by this when they signed Esmailyn Gonzalez, who was believed to be 19. Gonzalez is actually Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo and is 23 years old. The Nationals signed him for $1.4MM. If they would have passed on this and paid Aaron Crow, the 9th overall pick from this past draft that didn’t sign, they would have been much better off.

Of course there is supposed to be less age controversies due to the U.S. Patriot Act, but there’s always a way to get around this – it’s like steroids. Now there are also questions about some foreign born players who play college ball, but they are rare and hard to prove.

Finally, there is less chance for cultural conflicts. I’m not saying this is a big issue, but moving to the U.S. from another country is a big change, especially for a teenager. Also, the language barrier is one that is hard to overcome. It’s also a problem that ties into steroids – foreign players don’t know which supplements have banned substance in them because they can’t read the labels (or so they say). One way teams work around this is by having their foreign teams – the Dominican Summer League for example. The players get to play in their region and gradually get moved to the U.S.

One benefit of signing these kids is they are pretty much a clean slate. Kids that play in the U.S. have coaches that shape their game. The kids from other countries are more raw; their talent can be shaped to how an organization sees fit. Sano, a shortstop, has the opportunity to be molded into what his future team wants – defense first, on-base minded, etc, while a player like Pedro Alvarez can only really improve on what he already knows.

Conclusion
The safest bet for large bonus money is drafted players, but either way, there is risk involved. With more teams relying on foreign scouting, I don’t expect large bonuses to 16 year olds to stop.