Jon Heyman of SI.com has listed his 22 players he expects to be in trade rumors at the deadline. I’ll look at each one, give my favorite to land them, and give the odds that they are traded.
Note – the odds are of the them being traded, not to the specific favorite.
1. Jake Peavy, Padres, SP: Heyman lists the Cubs and Brewers as potential targets. There could be others, but I don’t expect him to be moved until after the season. The Cubs ownership issues and the fact that the Brewers don’t have any nearly ready pitching prospects are the two main reasons.
Favorites: Cubs
Odds: 100-1
2. Matt Holliday, A’s, OF: Beane has said and shown in the past that he’ll keep a player to get draft picks if he doesn’t like a package. I think a contender will bite and make the deal. The Mets need extra offense now that Delgado is sidelined and their outfield would be better with him added.
Favorites: Mets
Odds: 2-1
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners, SP: This is Mark Teixeira part 2 – the Mariners will deal him, but get nowhere near what they gave up. The Cubs would be a good fit if they don’t get Peavy. They have some prospects and aren’t afraid to trade them in hopes of ending their misery.
Favorites: Cubs, if they don’t get Peavy
Odds: 4-1
4. Cliff Lee, Indians, SP: If Cleveland doesn’t rebound, look for Lee to be traded. He’s coming off a career year and teams will be more willing to get him than Bedard – Lee has an $8MM option for next year. The Brewers were successful at getting a Tribe ace last year, and they need someone that will stablize their rotation for a penant run.
Favorites: Brewers
Odds: 3-1
5. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners, SP: Washburn has been decent this year, so his value may be higher than last year. The Mariners won’t get much, but they’ll get something. The Reds would be a good fit. They can take on a little payroll, have a few spare parts to move, and are close to competing this year.
Favorites: Reds
Odds: 3-2
6. Jon Garland, Diamondbacks, SP: Garland is what he is – a guy that gets innings, but little else. He’s perfect for the back of a rotation of a contender. He also has an option for next season, so if he pitches well, he’ll have more value. The Angels are already familiar with Garland and need help with their depleted rotation (even with Santana and Lackey coming back).
Favorites: Angels
Odds: 5-1
7. Mark DeRosa, Indians, 3B: DeRosa is off to a slow start, but his versatility would fit well with many teams. The Cardinals are a prime example. They are getting little production from shortstop or third base; he’d be a good fit.
Favorites: Cardinals
Odds: 3-1
8. Aubrey Huff, Orioles, 1B: Huff is an underrated players, as he can play the corners (IF and OF). There are a lot of teams that would like to add his bat to their lineups. The Mets have the most glaring hole at first base, and he could move to the outfield once Delgado comes back.
Favorites: Mets
Odds: 5-1
9. Jose Valverde, Astros, CL: The Astros need to overhaul their farm system and this is the first piece that can help them do that. The Rays have the pieces and the need, so they’re a logical fit if they get back into contention.
Favorites: Rays
Odds: 3-1
10. Jason Giambi, A’s, 1B: Giambi can still hit fairly well but can’t field. Who needs a DH more than the Red Sox right now? They also have the guys to get a deal done.
Favorites: Red Sox
Odds: 7-1
11. Garret Atkins, Rockies, 3B: People still question Atkins’ ability to hit outside of Coors field, which is a valid concern. Still, a team like the Rangers would be an ideal fit for this slugger.
Favorites: Rangers
Odds: 10-1
12. Adrian Beltre, Mariners, 3B: Beltre is still a great defender, and a move back to the NL could help his bat. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Francisco was still interested. He’d be a nice fit and could move Pablo Sandoval to first.
Favorites: Giants
Odds: 7-1
13. Huston Street, Rockies, CL: There are still questions about Street’s ability to close, but the experience makes him a likely trade target. The Rangers always need good pitching, so moving him close to the Longhorns may help revive him.
Favorites: Rangers
Odds: 8-1
14. Russ Springer, A’s, RP: Springer can still pitch in small stretches and some contender will be wanting his experience. KC could use a boost in the bullpen and they wouldn’t have to give up much.
Favorites: Royals
Odds: 6-1
15. Russell Branyan, Mariners, 1B: The Three True Outcome hitter is showing the promise he had as a prospect. Don’t be surprised to see someone make a grab for him. I think he’s be perfect in Florida, where he could see time at both corner infield spots.
Favorites: Marlins
Odds: 10-1
16. Nick Johnson, Nationals, 1B: Johnson is off to a hot start, so the Nationals would be stupid not to move him. The Angels are always looking for additional hitters; a platoon of him and Kendry Morales could keep Johnson fresh.
Favorites: Angels
Odds: 10-1
17. Orlando Cabrera, A’s, SS: Cabrera is still a decent defender and has had success in the post season. The Cubs current rotation of infielders may be over-exposed if they play too much. He makes a lot of sense, and Beane has dealt with Hendry before.
Favorites: Cubs
Odds: 25-1
18. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers, OF: No one will want to make this deal. He’s got an expensive vesting option, so that would kill almost any deal. Still, if he were dealt, I’d see the Rangers as a possibility.
Favorites: Rangers
Odds: 100-1
19. Jermaine Dye, White Sox, OF: Dye is probably not be moved either, as the White Sox are expect to compete. So, if he’s going to be dealt, I could see the Reds checking in on him. They called in the off season, and they can’t expect Laynce Nix to continue to hit.
Favorites: Reds
Odds: 500-1
20. Roy Oswalt, Astros, SP: He’s mentioned in trade talks every year, but it never happens. This year will be the same. I could see the Red Sox dealing some of their young arms if he does become available.
Favorites: Red Sox
Odds: 1000-1
21. Brian Giles, Padres, OF: Giles is definitely on the decline, but he can still take a walk. If the Red Sox want insurance for JD Drew, they will probably call like the did last year.
Favorites: Red Sox
Odds: 25-1
22. Lance Berkman, Astros, 1B: It’ll never happen, but this could make sense. Look at what some big names have landed in the past. I think the Rangers would make a serious run at him, but they’d have to give up at least 1 pitching and 1 catching prospect.
Favorites: Rangers
Odds: 1000-1
