UFC 98: Preview & Predictions

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This, my friends, is a show for the hardcore fan.

The main event is one of the most interesting fights in years, but it also features two guys who can suddenly bore a mainstream audience to death without warning.

You’ve got Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes, a fight that was heavily anticipated two years ago. Now, it’s just a matchup between two fading fighters making one last grasp for some kind of relevance.

The undercard is filled with fighters from the Ultimate Fighter series, but not the winners.

Just for fun, though, let’s take a look at what UFC 98 was SUPPOSED to be. You know, before all the injuries.

UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

or:

UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Rashad Evans vs. Rampage Jackson

Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes
Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Wilson
James Irvin vs. Drew McFedries
Yushin Okami vs. Dan Miller
Houston Alexander vs. Andre Gusmao

That’s quite the card, huh? Too bad it didn’t happen.

What we’re left with is a show that is probably going to be a good show from a fight standpoint, but may not do so well from a marketing standpoint. I know plenty of people that are interesting in the main event, but that’s mostly due to the inherent hatred of Rashad Evans that seems to run rampant through UFC fandom.

I mean, people HATE this guy, and I can’t understand why. He’s a knockout artist, he’s undefeated, he has some charisma, and he’s defeated a few legends in dominating fashion. Yet for whatever reason, people love to hate him, and that might be the key to selling this show: “buy it to see Machida destroy this idiot!”

This show marks the first time I’ll be attending a UFC show for fun instead of business, and I’m excited about it. I’m going to sit back, enjoy the fights, and be a fan instead of someone who has to analyze this stuff for a living. You might be better off if you do the same.

UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
RASHAD EVANS vs. LYOTO MACHIDA

Ninety-nine percent of you probably know that UFC 98 was supposed to be headlined by a major rematch between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir, a fight that would unify the UFC Heavyweight championship. That fight, which is one of the most anticipated in UFC history, was moved to UFC 100 in July when Mir was injured/faked a knee injury in order to avoid a world-class beating. The best part about that story is that the news was announced two days after tickets went on sale to the UFC Flght Club members and two days after I’d purchased tickets, flights and hotel rooms for myself and 5 friends.

While Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida doesn’t have quite the same cachet for mainstream UFC fans as Lesnar vs. Mir did, it’s actually a far more intriguing matchup for hardcore fans of the sport.

Machida thus far has been completely unsolveable, a puzzle that appears to have no answer. In a sport that is constantly evolving, Machida has melded karate with the typical elements of mixed martial arts to create a style that is completely unique.

It’s also completely maddening to his opponents; all you have to do is go back to see his fight with Tito Ortiz to see the frustration I’m speaking of as it boils to the surface, evident on Tito’s face and visible in his body language as the fight progresses.

Try as he might, Ortiz simply cannot close the gap between he and Machida, he cannot take him down and keep him there for his patented ground and pound. He’s willing to take some punishment for the chance to land strikes on Lyoto, but Lyoto lands counter-punches and then vanishes in the blink of an eye. Ortiz simply cannot land anything, and it’s frustrating him to no end.

Many of Machida’s fights follow this exact script. He takes very little damage when exchanging strikes with his opponents, and even though there are no quantifiable stats to back up the claim, he may very well be the least-damaged fighter in UFC history. People call him “elusive” and they call him “boring”, but in truth, there’s only one thing Lyoto Machida truly is: effective.

Rashad Evans is also a counter-puncher, albeit with a focus more on power punching than his opponent. His brutal KO of Chuck Liddell with an overhand right served as a warning sign, a testament to the kind of power Evans has in both hands. And he’s fast, too; granted, Chuck Liddell is not the best barometer for speed in the business right now, but it’s noteworthy that the punch from Evans appeared to be traveling at least twice as fast as the one Liddell threw at the same time.

Ultimately, we could be in store for a very tactical and slow-paced battle in this main event. As noted above, both men are tactical counter-punchers, and I don’t believe that either man is going to press the action to the point where he could get caught by a well-placed punch or kick. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to see a boring fight. On the contrary, I think this fight could end up as one of the most interesting battles of 2009, at least from the perspective of a hardcore fan.

Rashad Evans has had quite the run since joining the company through The Ultimate Fighter, but I think the magic ends at UFC 98. Lyoto Machida is too polished, too tactical, and just flat-out great as a fighter. He’s also come to grips with the idea that you have to entertain the fans while also winnings fights, and I think he’s going to finish Evans in dominating fashion in this fight. If Evans does solve the Machida Problem, then he deserves to be called one of the absolute best in the world, regardless of weight class. But he’s not going to.

PREDICTION: Lyoto Machida by TKO, round three

MATT SERRA VS. MATT HUGHES

When it comes to building up a fight, a slow build is often far more effective than just throwing two guys together. But there’s a slow build, and then there’s Serra vs. Hughes, a fight that is far past its expiration date.

Originally scheduled for December of 2007, the fight was postponed after Serra injured his back in training and was unable to compete. Hughes instead faced (and was destroyed by) Georges St. Pierre for the interim welterweight championship. When Serra recovered from his injury, he too faced St. Pierre, with the same results: another dominating victory from St. Pierre.

And here we are, in May of 2009, a full seventeen months after the original fight was scrapped. The question is, does anyone care at this point? Does anyone even remember what made the grudge between Hughes and Serra so compelling in the first place? And after brutal losses to a combination of Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves, does any even care about either guy as a fighter?

Regardless of the grudge or the build up, you’re still left with an interesting fight in terms of the clash of styles. Hughes is a power wrestler, a throwback to the days when being strong in wrestling would almost always negate anything your opponent could throw at you. But Serra is well-versed in jiu-jitsu, one of the best grapplers in the sport, which would seemingly negate any major ground advantage Hughes would possess.

I think Serra has what it takes to defeat Hughes and sending him riding into retirement. The obnoxious New Yorker defeated Georges St. Pierre with strikes, but I think he’s going to submit Hughes in the second round. If Serra does retire (as he’s hinted at over the past few weeks), then he’ll retire a happy man.

PREDICTION: Matt Serra by submission, round two

DREW MCFEDRIES VS. XAVIER FOUPA-POKAM

Pokam is stepping in as a replacement for James Irvin, who became the latest injury casualty of a seemingly cursed UFC 98 card. That’s unfortunate for Drew McFedries, who couldn’t have pulled a tougher replacement fight and will likely end up on the business end of a Zuffa cutting spree after losing this fight.

McFedries is a fun fighter who tends to go for the spectacular knockout at the expense of everything else, but Pokam’s muay thai game is nearly unmatched in mixed martial arts. Pokam last fought on April 18th against Denis Kang, a bout he lost, but McFedries isn’t even remotely the caliber of fighter that Kang is. I think Pokam is going to score a TKO victory on this one, and I think he’s going to do it in the first round.

PREDICTION: Xavier Foupa-Pokam by TKO, round one

DAN MILLER VS. CHAEL SONNEN

Hey look, another UFC 98 fight that was affected by injury. You’re shocked, I know. Miller was originally slated to face (alleged) middleweight contender Yushin Okami on this card, but an injury to Okami resulted in Sonnen taking the fight.

Miller is riding a strong win streak with victories over Jake Rosholt, Matt Horwich and Ryan McGivern. He’s a very strong submission artist facing a guy who has suffered the majority of his losses via submission.

I like Sonnen. I really do. But I don’t like him in this fight. I expect Miller to submit Sonnen, most likely in the second round.

PREDICTION: Dan Miller by submission, round two

SEAN SHERK VS. FRANK EDGAR

True story: in my current career mode game on UFC Undisputed 2009, Frankie Edgar has reigned as the UFC Lightweight Champion for about four years. He beat BJ Penn around the beginning of 2010 and has never lost the belt, beating Sherk, Penn, Florian and more on multiple occasions.

I don’t know if that has anything to do with the fight on Saturday night. I doubt it.

The good news surrounding this fight is that Sean Sherk passed his pre-fight drug test, which makes three negative tests in a row for the former champion. He’s also in the middle of a career re-invention, somehow turning himself from a horrific, boring lay and pray wrestler into a striker with the shortest arms in the history of the sport.

Sherk is good. He’s really good. But Frank Edgar is the king of the decision, and if Sherk decides that he would rather go to his old game plan of laying on top of his opponent and smothering them to death, then I think Edgar will have a chance of pulling off the big upset. I’m picking this as my big upset of the night, since I don’t consider Matt Serra beating Matt Hughes to be an upset of any sort.

PREDICTION:
Frank Edgar by decision

BROCK LARSON VS. CHRIS WILSON: Wilson by decision
PAT BARRY VS. TIM HAGUE: Barry by TKO, round two
PHILLIPE NOVER VS. KYLE BRADLEY: Nover by submission, round two
KRZYSZTOF SOSZYNSKI VS. ANDRE GUSMAO: Soszynski by submission, round two
YOSHIYUKI YOSHIDA VS. BRANDON WOLFF: Yoshida by decision
DAVE KAPLAN VS. GEORGE ROOP: Kaplan by decision