It’s a battle of two legendary fighters, two warriors and two of the greatest the fight game has ever seen. It’s also a battle that seems to be coming about six years too late.
Randy Couture is 46 years old and is almost certainly nearing the twilight of his legendary career. He’s as close to a folk hero as the mixed martial arts community may ever have, a fighter who defies the odds that are always stacked against him. He usually performs the best when the odds are stacked against him and when he’s given zero chance against his opponent. We witnessed it against Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga, two fighters who were supposed to be more than Couture could handle.
We didn’t witness it against Brock Lesnar, however. Couture gave Lesnar more than anyone else the current champion has ever fought, but Lesnar’s size, speed and rapidly-evolving skillset proved to be too much for Captain America.
But you could basically take everything I wrote about Randy Couture in the above paragraphs and apply it to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He’s an absolute legend in the sport and perhaps the second greatest heavyweight in history. He has the ability to endure horrific beatings and pull off the dramatic win like nobody’s business.
But those horrific beatings endured at the hands of Bob Sapp and Fedor Emelianenko have quite possibly resulted in the shortening of Nogueira’s career. He’s only 33 years old, but he’s taken so many brutal beatings over the years that he’s probably operating with the body and brain of a much older man. The performance against Frank Mir last December shouldn’t be used as the indicator of Nogueira’s current talent level, because Nogueira shouldn’t have been in the cage that night; he’d recently endured a hospital stay for a staph infection and was battling an injured knee. But simply looking at Nogueira gives you the impression that he’s nearing his expiration date as a fighter.
For Randy Couture, the key to this fight is to keep it off the ground. Couture is a fantastic wrestler, but going to the ground with a submission specialist like Nogueira isn’t the best tactical move no matter how good your wrestling base may be. Couture will look to keep the fight standing, working his greco clinch against the cage to tire Nogueira and set up boxing combos. His striking game is superior to Nogueira and can be used to his advantage, even if he doesn’t have the power to KO the former PRIDE champion with a single punch.
A Couture win in this fight could mean a light heavyweight title shot against Lyoto Machida or a fight with Anderson Silva. Yes, Couture wants to fight both men, and a big win in this fight will likely make it happen.
Nogueira is walking around at 230 pounds, the lightest he’s been for a fight in years. His camp says he’s much faster and lighter on his feet than he’s been in years, and that the extra speed has greatly contributed to his striking game. That remains to be seen. I firmly believe that Nogueira’s best chance of winning this fight is to get it to the ground and work the kind of sweeps he used against Tim Sylvia to set up a submission. He’s incredibly dangerous off his back and can secure a submission at any point in the fight, no matter how long it goes.
And you know what? I think he’ll do it. I believe Nogueira will overcome the odds in this fight yet again and defeat Randy Couture, most likely near the end of the second round or the beginning of the third round, by a submission. I don’t know where he’ll go from this point forward, but he’s getting one last upset victory to add to his resume.
PREDICTION: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by submission
