Don’t Bet The Rent Money On Marquez

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As September 19th draws near, the Juan Manuel Marquez bandwagon seems to be picking up steam.  Whether it’s from trainers, promoters, or boxing writers, people are not so sure Floyd Mayweather will keep his undefeated record for much longer.

Oscar De La Hoya said so in his weekly blog over at Ring Magazine. Here are some snippets:

I feel Marquez’s style is well-suited for Mayweather.

Marquez is not a slow fighter at all; he’s faster than people think.

I also feel Marquez won’t respect Mayweather’s power at all because he’s been in there with hard punchers. I’ll tell you one thing: Mayweather does not hit hard.

But De La Hoya isn’t alone in his sentiments. HBO sports programming head Ross Greenburg thinks Marquez can pull it off as well. In an interview with Newsday.com, he had this to say:

“There are certain people in boxing who will tell you that there has never been a boxer who has been able to adjust like JMM can during a fight.”

“Look at the Diaz fight. He was getting beat and then he took him out. He’ll also fight in rounds six through 12 as if he is fighting in the first 30 seconds of the fight, fresh as a daisy.”

These sentiments are also starting to spread to boxing writers as well.  Gabriel Montoya at Maxboxing had this to say in his weekly mailbag about the fight and Mayweather’s recent drama:

I’ve been pretty upfront about Marquez’ chances (slim and none and slim left town) but after hearing all this, I am starting to turn the corner a little bit. Juan has a giant Mexican chip on his shoulder coming into this bout.

Now before you go betting your hard earned rent money on this fight, let me bring you back to reality.  De La Hoya is a promoter. You can throw what he said out of the window. He is trying to sell a fight that isn’t selling well. Part of that is the belief by many fans that Mayweather is too big and too good for Marquez to defeat.

With that perception, it’s hard to get people to spend their money on this fight. Why would Mexican fans spend their money to see their fighter being set up to lose on Mexican Independence day?

De La Hoya coming out saying he thinks Marquez will defeat Mayweather should be taken with a grain of salt for that purpose alone. If his words can help convince people Marquez can pull off the upset, they will be more inclined to tune in to watch it.

As for Greenburg, he is fighting the same battle De La Hoya is, on behalf of HBO. He knows as well as anybody that fans need to believe the fight won’t be one sided.  24/7 was created in part, just for that reason. It was a platform to spark your interest in the fight, and that cannot be done if the fight looks like a mismatch.

HBO therefore can give you whatever impression they want you to have during the series.  One can bet they won’t give you the impression that this is a Mayweather “tuneup” fight.

As for Montoya’s claims, they hold some validity. With all the drama swirling around Mayweather recently, you have to wonder how it’s affecting his training. He also points out he gave Marquez slim to no chance to begin with.

I’m sticking with Mayweather by UD or late stoppage. You can forget about De La Hoya claiming Marquez will be fast. Zab Judah was lightning fast, and Mayweather beat him. Marquez possesses nowhere near that level of handspeed. His speed will not affect Mayweather.

De La Hoya said Mayweather doesn’t hit very hard. That’s easy coming from someone who campaigned at Middleweight for the latter parts of his career. Marquez was shook up by punches from feather fisted Juan Diaz, and Mayweather certainly hits a lot harder than that.

Greenburg lauded Marquez’s ability to remain fresh during a fight. Since when was Mayweather known to not finish strong. In fact, that’s one of the main staple of his game. He starts slow, and comes on as the fight progresses and he adjusts.

Mayweather has had his share of drama lately. First his uncle decided to join the Ike Turner fan club. Then someone in Mayweather’s entourage allegedly shot someone with a gun that may have been his. Rumors are circling that he doesn’t look good in training camp.

Don’t believe the hype. Mayweather at eighty percent will still beat Marquez. He is bigger, stronger, faster, younger, and better defensively than Marquez. Even if Marquez is able to get the best of him, he will be able to adjust later on.

If Marquez comes at him, look for him to lose some early rounds. As the rounds progress, he will find his rhythm. If Marquez presses too hard, Mayweather will bite down, walk him down, and knock him out.

If Marquez attempts to box with Mayweather, look for him to potshot and try to out-cute Marquez for twelve rounds.  Marquez proved to be there for straight punches against Juan Diaz, and he ate many in the early rounds. Look for him to eat those punches late against Mayweather, and they will be harder and quicker.

Marquez can win this fight, but he most likely won’t. Don’t let the spin machine fool you. This fight is still a Mayweather tuneup. Save your rent money for things like um, say, the rent.

contact me at bryantrafford@yahoo.com