Fans and media are still pondering the scheduled UFC 103 main event between former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin and Affliction refugee Vitor Belfort that will take place at a catch-weight of 195 pounds.
The very fact that it is at a catch-weight makes some scratch their heads because it is hard to gauge the ramifications of the matchup.
Let me attempt to clear the air a bit.
Indirectly it will have a huge impact on not one, but two weight classes – the 185-pound middleweight division and the 205-pound light heavyweight division.
The Franklin/Belfort fight was originally slated to be Franklin/Dan Henderson 2, however, it was pulled due to some backlash from fans and media who had seen Henderson win a split decision over Franklin at UFC 93 just a few months prior.
Their UFC 93 bout was a closely contested fight but “Hendo” was the clear cut winner (except on the 30 – 27 rogue scorecard posted by one of the judges in favor of Franklin).
The other two judges both scored it correctly at 29 – 28.
Why should Henderson have to beat Franklin again and risk a loss when he is in his late thirties and on the verge of another title shot?
It was not worth the career risk for him at this stage. He shouldn’t have to fight Franklin again and now he won’t have to thanks to the UFC.
Enter former UFC light heavyweight champion and current middleweight contender Vitor Belfort who was pulled from the Affliction rubble and promptly signed, sealed, and delivered back to the UFC.
He was instantly tabbed to fill in opposite Franklin in the main event at UFC 103.
Depending on the outcome of this fight on September 19 in Dallas, Texas these two men could go in very different directions and create a ripple effect.
Let’s start with Rich Franklin.
If he is able to win he will next take on a legitimate contender at the light heavyweight limit where he intends to finish out his UFC career.
Thiago Silva comes to mind as a possible future opponent.
If Franklin is willing to wait a while other possibilities would open up including the Randy Couture/Brandon Vera UFC 105 winner (fight is unconfirmed at the moment), Tito Ortiz if he is able to defeat Mark Coleman at UFC 106, or Jon Jones if he is able to defeat Matt Hamill at the TUF 10 Finale.
On the other hand, if Franklin loses the possibilities are also endless including Forrest Griffin, Keith Jardine, or the Lyoto Machida/Mauricio Rua UFC 104 loser.
For Belfort a loss would mean he gets thrown back into the middleweight heap to take on a mid-tier opponent in a few months.
Conversely, a win would propel him forward as a legitimate title contender in the crowded middleweight division currently ruled by fellow Brazilian Anderson Silva.
Belfort himself would not get the next crack at Silva because he hasn’t been around long enough and the UFC needs to build his brand up a bit more before he gets his chance.
Either Dan Henderson or Nate Marquardt will receive the next title shot.
Other middleweights who could complicate the middleweight conundrum in the near future include Yushin Okami, if he is victorious at UFC 104 against Chael Sonnen, and Yoshihiro Akiyama who won his much anticipated UFC debut over Alan Belcher at UFC 100.
The UFC has many avenues to pursue going forward but let me take a gander into my octagon-shaped crystal ball for a minute.
Here’s the forecast:
Expect Dan Henderson to fight Anderson Silva next but the same outcome to occur as their first meeting back at UFC 82.
Expect Nate Marquardt to also get a title shot against Silva but he’ll have to wait until 2010.
Expect Vitor Belfort and Rich Franklin to be a slugfest with Belfort recording the TKO victory due to his superior hand speed and crisper boxing skills.
Expect the victorious Belfort to take on Yushin Okami in late 2009 or early 2010.
Expect Rich Franklin to fight Mauricio Rua in early 2010.
Most importantly, expect it to always be complicated and subject to change.
