As you’ve seen over the years, I’m a huge Cardinals fan. As you’ve also seen, I like to take teams and plan their off-season moves. I think every year, I do this with the Cardinals. Well, this off season will be no different.
The Cardinals have quite a few guys coming off the books: Rick Ankiel, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Khalil Greene, Matt Holliday, Jason LaRue, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz, and Todd Wellemeyer. I figure they have about $44MM coming off the books (including $4MM that was paid to Adam Kennedy for playing with Oakland).
The roster currently stands like this:
C – Yadier Molina
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Skip Schumaker
3B –
SS – Brendan Ryan
LF –
CF – Colby Rasmus
RF – Ryan Ludwick
Bench – Julio Lugo
SP – Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse
RP – Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes, Trevor Miller, Jason Motte, Blake Hawksworth
These 15 guys I consider locks for the roster; I figure that LaRussa would like his typical 7 man bullpen, so that leaves 5 men for the bench.
For the bullpen, I’d make a few changes. Kyle McClellan, in my opinion, is wasted as a reliever. I’d send him to Memphis to be stretched into a starter since he’s got 4 decent pitches. Brad Thompson should be non-tendered (instead he was released today); he has one pitch and doesn’t throw it all that well. I’ll address the last 2 spots later.
For 3B, they should let David Freese and Allen Craig battle it out; one will start and the other will be a bench player. That solves 2 spots, as Craig can also serve as 4th outfielder. For back up catcher, have Matt Pagnozzi compete with Bryan Anderson; Anderson should have the position though, since he’s a better hitter. The 5th outfielder will be another competition between rookies Jon Jay, Shane Robinson, and almost rookies Nick Stavinoha and Joe Mather. Jay has the best ability of the group, and he’d be my choice. The last roster spot will be addressed at the end.
The current payroll is currently $50.339MM, before arbitration raises. Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, and Brad Thompson (who was released after I wrote this) are the arbitration eligible players; I figure they’ll make a total of $9MM (around $5MM for Ludwick, around $3MM for Schumaker, and around $1MM for Thompson). That leaves payroll at roughly $40MM, so they’ll have about $35MM to work with; I’m figuring they will start the season with a payroll of $95MM. With the guys added above, that knocks out another $2MM or so.
My first move is to sign a left fielder. As much as I’d like Matt Holliday to return, Scott Boras is quickly pricing him off the team. Boras has been in the media recently comparing Holliday to Mark Teixeira, another one of his clients. The Cardinals need to make an offer, but they won’t be in the same range as the big market clubs. I’d go no higher that $75MM over 5 years; Holliday is a good player, but look at the other big contract for similar players (Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells are 2 good examples). Someone like the Yankees or Mets will throw more money at him.
Instead, I’d take that money and focus it elsewhere. To replace Holliday in left, I’d sign Bobby Abreu to a 2 year, $16MM deal. Abreu is still worth the money, works well with younger players (which many of the Angels players attested to this past season), and would be a good hitter to complement Pujols.
The next place I’d give some of the Holliday money is to Billy Wagner. I have no faith that Ryan Franklin will revert to his first half form. He’s great as a set up guy, not as a closer. Wagner has mentioned retirement, but I think we could sign him for a 1 year, $8MM deal; the team is a contender, so that could entice the fireballer. Plus, he’d be a good guy to work with Jason Motte, Eduardo Sanchez, Francisco Samuel, and Fernando Salas.
The next move I’d make is to sign Ben Sheets. When healthy, he’s one of the top pitchers in the NL. He’s coming off a lost season, so he’d sign reasonably to prove he’s healthy. I’d give him a 1 year, $6MM deal with a mutual option for 2011. It’s pretty much a low risk, high reward deal in my mind.
For the 5th rotation spot, I’d be willing to give John Smoltz a chance at taking it; he’d have to compete with Mitchell Boggs, P.J. Walters and Jaime Garcia for the spot. One will start, one will move to the bullpen, and two will be in Memphis. My guess would be Boggs and Smoltz with the Cardinals and Garcia and Walters with the Redbirds (Garcia is the future, but I want to make sure he’s complete healed and pitching well before I’d hand him the rotation spot).
For the final spot, I’d target minor league free agents to see if I can find another Ludwick. One requirement is the player must play multiple positions. Andy Gonzalez is a possibility; he’s a shortstop by trade, but can also play second and outfield. Tony Graffinino is a veteran that can play anywhere on the infield; Tony’d be sure to trying him in the corner outfield. Jeff Salazar can play the corners. There will be plenty more available as we get closer to the season. Of the ones listed, I’d be more inclined to try Tony Graffinino. The other option is to take someone in the Rule V draft; it’s tough to tell who’s going to be available in a month time.
My roster would then look like this:
C – Yadier Molina
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Skip Schumaker
3B – David Freese
SS – Brendan Ryan
LF – Bobby Abreu
CF – Colby Rasmus
RF – Ryan Ludwick
Bench – Julio Lugo, Allen Craig, Bryan Anderson, Jon Jay, Tony Graffinino (or Rule V pick)
SP – Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz
RP – Billy Wagner, Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes, Trevor Miller, Jason Motte, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs
I’m possibly going to be doing these for other teams; if there is a team that you’d like to see covered, leave a comment or send me an e-mail.
