UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez- Preview and Predictions

Features

After winning season one of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2005, many believed that Sanchez was destined for UFC gold.  With six straight wins in the Octagon, “The Nightmare” was well on his way to earning a title shot in the 170-pound division before hitting roadblocks in back-to-back defeats to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch.

Since those losses, Sanchez has dropped down to the lightweight division and racked up two extremely exciting victories over top contenders, Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida. Sanchez will now have the opportunity to fulfill his destiny as he takes on Penn for the UFC Lightweight championship at UFC 107 in a bout that could go down in history as the greatest 155-pound fight of all time.

Also featured on the card, former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir will collide with heavy-handed striker Cheick Kongo in the co-main event plus a lightweight battle between Kenny Florian and Clay Guida.

Make the jump to check out the preview and predictions of this weekend’s card.

Main Event
UFC Lightweight championship

B.J Penn vs. Diego Sanchez

Despite a dominant defeat at the hands of current UFC Welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94, Penn is still one of the greatest athletes in this sport. His recent submission victory over Kenny Florian at UFC 101 is further proof of that.

Penn may seem out of shape and bloated when competing in the welterweight division but at 155-pounds, “The Prodigy” has the gas to go all five rounds and outwork any opponent.

However, Penn has yet to face a fighter such as Sanchez who will be able to charge forward with relentless aggression for the duration of the bout. Sanchez is the energizer bunny of the UFC since he possesses the ability to constantly attack at a ferocious pace and never tire.

It will be interesting to see how the champion responds to Sanchez’s pace and diverse attack. Sanchez is known for his powerful takedowns and brutal ground and pound but Penn’s takedown defense for the 155-pound division is legendary. Even if by some chance Sanchez takes Penn down, Penn is extremely dangerous off his back.

Believe it or not, Sanchez may prove to have an advantage standing up rather than on the ground. Penn is a lethal striker but he relies almost entirely on his boxing where as Sanchez is a much more versatile striker. On the contrary, Florian was considered a better all-around striker than Penn and “The Prodigy” easily picked him apart with beautiful boxing technique that Florian had no answer for.

Expect to see Sanchez come out and try to overwhelm Penn but to no avail. Penn will overcome the wildness of Sanchez and once his timing is right he will drop Sanchez and finish “The Nightmare” for the first time in his career.

B.J Penn by third round (T)KO

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo

Mir’s ultimate goal is extracting revenge on current Heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar and Kongo is in his way of accomplishing that. Mir believes that Kongo is nowhere near being in his league, claiming that the French kick-boxer has way too many holes in his game and is “irrelevant”.

Kongo will be looking to shut Mir’s mouth up and climb his way back into title contention with a victory over a former champion. Some are dubbing this fight as a classic, “striker vs. grappler” contest but that isn’t the case at all as Mir’s stand up game has improved drastically over the years.

While Kongo is certainly an elite kick-boxer, Mir will not be a fish out of water by any means in the stand up department. Kongo’s only chance of winning this fight is to steer clear of Mir’s ground game and hope to knock Mir out on the feet but unfortunately for the Frenchman, he does not possess the takedown defense to keep the bout standing.

Look for Mir to weather the storm on the feet before somehow taking the fight to the ground and sending a message to Lesnar and the rest of the division with a bone-snapping submission hold.

Frank Mir by second round submission

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

Ironically, both fighters lost to both Penn and Sanchez respectively in their last appearances in the Octagon. Florian was dominated by Penn where as Guida put up a valiant effort losing a decision in a memorable war with Sanchez. Now they will look to earn their way back up the rankings on the path to a title shot with a victory over the other.

Resembling a modern day caveman with the wild hair and crazy persona, Guida will look to put the pressure on Florian with his explosive wrestling base and overwhelming aggression.

In the past we have seen Florian dominated by a wrestler, when he fought Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but that fight was almost four years ago. “Ken-Flo” has evolved dramatically since that fight and has developed into one of the fiercest competitors in the lightweight division.

Florian will pick Guida apart with crisp striking technique and if the fight hits the ground he will also control the positioning with his elite Jiu-Jitsu attack before locking in a submission to force the caveman to tap out.

Kenny Florian by third round submission

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce

Originally Fitch was set to square off with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106 but an injury from Almeida cancelled the bout. Fans were excited when the UFC announced a long anticipated rematch between Fitch and Thiago Alves at UFC 107 but once again, Fitch’s opponent pulled out from an injury.

Fitch will now take on Pierce, who despite being an exceedingly talented fighter, is relatively unknown in the eyes of the fans. Fitch is widely recognized as either the second or third top welterweight contender in the world so a loss to an unknown fighter such as Pierce would be devastating for him.

In Pierce’s UFC debut, he took on Brock Larson at UFC Fight Night 19 and defeated him by unanimous decision. Much like Fitch, Pierce is an accomplished wrestler but Fitch’s wrestling is on a much higher level, especially inside the Octagon.

This will either come down to two wrestlers cancelling each other out, or Fitch will completely dominate with his takedowns and ground control. Either way Fitch will come out victorious in a bout that may generate a few boo-birds from the fans.

Jon Fitch by unanimous decision

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

This fight will mark “The Head-Hunter’s” first appearance in the Octagon since defeating Gilbert Aldana at UFC 57 in 2006. Buentello was originally signed to square off with Todd Duffee but Duffee has pulled out with an injury and the UFC’s very own version of gumby will step in to take his place.

They don’t call Struve “The Skyscraper” for nothing, he truly is one of the tallest/lankiest heavyweights ever to step foot inside the Octagon. Standing at 6’11, Struve is like a giant Octopus on the ground and would have a definitive edge over Buentello on the mat.

Struve will be in some serious trouble if he is unable to take the fight to the ground. He doesn’t have the best chin in the world and Buentello hits like a mack truck, which spells a recipe for disaster for Struve on the feet.

Don’t expect much ground work as “The Head-Hunter” will catch Struve off guard and finish in the first round in a successful return to the Octagon.

Paul Buentello by first round (T)KO