The final weekend of the NFL season is upon us and it’s the time of year that we all wait for…the playoffs. They’re just around the corner. And I love this time of the year for another reason: playoff scenarios. Hearing commentators and announcers stumble over all the different scenarios that could play out is just as entertaining as watching the New Year come in.
There’s a huge cluster of teams in the AFC that still have a chance to make it in. The Colts have locked in the number one seed, in addition to San Diego, who holds the number two. After them, the 10-5 Patriots and 10-5 Bengals fight for the numbers 3 and 4 seeds. All four teams have won their divisions.
Now it gets a little complicated…Currently, the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets have the five and six seeds, respectively.
The Broncos can win and they’d need a little bit of help. With a Denver win, 1) the Jets and the Ravens or the Steelers would have to lose or 2) the Broncos win and the Jets loss with a Houston win, or 3) a Broncos win and a Ravens and a Steelers loss or a Texans win. But if they lose, they’d need still more help. If they did lose, Baltimore would absolutely have to lose, because Baltimore owns the tiebreaker over Denver.
For the Jets, it’s very simple: win, and they’re in. The Jets play the Bengals on Sunday Night Football and may not face starters for the Bengals.
The teams that are currently on the outside looking in are the Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Dolphins, and Jaguars. The Ravens can win and they’re in, as they own the tiebreaker over the Broncos. This could be a “trap game” as the Raiders have beaten the Eagles and the Bengals at home this season. It’s difficult for teams from the east coast to travel to the west.
As for the Texans, they have to win. The Texans must win their faceoff with New England, who also may rest starters with their playoff spot secured. To get in with a Texans win the Ravens and Broncos would both need to lose.
The scenarios for the teams get less and less likely as we progress through the mess of teams.
The Steelers need to win and have two different ways to get in. One, they need to win and have the Texans, Jets, and Ravens lose. The second way is for them to win and have the Jets, Ravens, and Broncos lose. This team has been struggling this year. Losses to Cleveland, Oakland, and Kansas City really have kept this team out of the playoffs. The Steelers need a miracle.
Speaking of miracles, these next two teams need supermiracles to get into the playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins need lots of help after winning, if they can beat the Steelers. The Dolphins need to win and for the Jets, Ravens, Texans, and Jaguars to lose. The game could come down to the 4th quarter. Ben Roethlisberger, quarterback of the Steelers, would seem to have the edge over Chad Henne, quarterback of the Dolphins, if this happened. Henne’s 4th quarter QB rating is one of the lowest in the league, while Big Ben is one of the best clutch QB’s of recent memory. Bill Parcells has done an amazing job in turning this team around from going 1-15 just two years ago. Last year may have been a result of an easy schedule, but this team has turned around and they may be in the playoff race year in and year out for years to come.
The last team that’s still alive in the 2009 race for an AFC Wildcard spot is the Jacksonville Jaguars. As the Dolphins had an easy schedule last season, the Jaguars’ schedule has been similar in easiness this season, although games against the Dolphins, Colts, and Patriots in the past three weeks have held them back from controlling their road to the playoffs. The Jaguars absolutely have to beat the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday. IF the Jags WIN there are five scenarios that could play out for them to get in…you should go to the bathroom first before I start.
1) Steelers, Ravens, Broncos, and Texans all lose. 2) Steelers, Ravens, Broncos, and Jets all lose. 3) Steelers, Ravens, Texans, and Jets all lose. 4) Steelers, Broncos, Texans, and Jets all lose. And finally, 5) Jets, Broncos, Texans, and Ravens would all have to lose.
The playoffs in the NFC are much more clean cut than the races in the AFC. The playoff teams are set.
New Orleans owns the number one seed in the conference and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Saints have been fading down the stretch, losing to the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
The Flipadelphia Eagles (reference to It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia anyone?) can clinch the NFC’s number two seed and a first round bye with a win over Dallas. Philly looks like one of the more dangerous teams heading into the playoffs. The Eagles and McNabb may be headed to yet another NFC title game.
The number three seed is the Minnesota Vikings, who have faded as well. They had the number two seed until last week, after they lost to the Chicago Bears and the Eagles won their game. They can get the number two seed back if Philly loses and they beat the Giants who were eliminated last week by also losing to Carolina.
The Cardinals have an outside shot of getting a first round bye, but it’d take a win by them over the Packers plus losses by the Eagles and Vikings. Arizona had lost three straight before playing the Lions and Rams in the past two weeks.
The Packers and Cowboys are the wildcard teams, although, Dallas has way more to play for than the Packers. The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win over Philly, but can also clinch a first round bye if the Vikings and Cardinals lose.
