It’s early in the season, but never too early for power rankings.
These aren’t your typical rankings; I look at record, run differential, and farm system. I weigh the scores on all 3; record makes up half the score, the run differential makes up a third of the score, and a sixth of the score is from farm system.
For Run Differential, I use the Pythagorean Theorem formulated by Bill James to see what a teams record should be; you can predict how well a team should be playing by this. In theory, a team should be in about the same range for their Pythagorean Record as their true record.
Rank | Team | Record | Pythagorean | System | Total | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 30 | 3 | 51 | |
Defending NL Champs look like the could repeat. | ||||||
2 | Minnesota Twins | 28 | 28 | 9 | 50 | |
The Twins were one of the favorites of the Central, and looking like it early on. | ||||||
3 | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 1 | 49 | |
The Giants are off to a hot start; improved offense looks good right now. | ||||||
4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 27 | 19 | 27 | 49 | |
A surprise start here; don’t expect it to last though. | ||||||
5 | STL Cardinals | 26 | 26 | 6 | 45 | |
The Redbirds look strong out of the gate; Brad Penny looks good after 2 starts. | ||||||
6 | TB Rays | 24 | 21 | 22 | 45 | |
The Rays look solid early on; rank is high due to strong system. | ||||||
7 | NY Yankees | 25 | 24 | 8 | 44 | |
The Defending Champs are in second, but should be in first by the end of the month. | ||||||
8 | Oakland Athletics | 22 | 27 | 7 | 42 | |
Strong pitching and some decent hitting have the A’s looking good early on. | ||||||
9 | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 16 | 24 | 42 | |
The Tigers should be there with the Twins when all is said and done; they’re off to a strong start | ||||||
10 | Texas Rangers | 18 | 25 | 19 | 41 | |
Rangers are looking up at the A’s right now, but could move up after a couple of weeks. | ||||||
11 | Florida Marlins | 21 | 15 | 29 | 41 | |
Another good start by the Marlins, but can they continue throughout the season? | ||||||
12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 20 | 22 | 14 | 39 | |
This is somewhat surprising, due to the many questions with the team, including ace Brandon Webb being on the DL | ||||||
13 | Colorado Rockies | 19 | 23 | 13 | 39 | |
Tied with the D’Backs for second; have a better run differential though. | ||||||
14 | Atlanta Braves | 17 | 18 | 21 | 36 | |
Atlanta has started with a winning record, due to the effect of rookie Jason Heyward. | ||||||
15 | LA Dodgers | 15 | 17 | 23 | 34 | |
The Dodgers look lost; too many pitching questions. | ||||||
16 | Boston Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 26 | 31 | |
A slow start for the BoSox, even with the better defense; I expect them to pick it up. | ||||||
17 | Cincinnati Reds | 16 | 8 | 25 | 30 | |
Negative run differential with a .500 record; they should improve. | ||||||
18 | KC Royals | 13 | 11 | 28 | 30 | |
A 4-5 start seems good for the Royals; they are on pace for 72 wins. | ||||||
19 | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 9 | 18 | 23 | |
After the Cubs rough first series with the Braves, they’ve played OK. | ||||||
20 | Chicago White Sox | 8 | 20 | 4 | 23 | |
Another under-achieving team; they should end up above the Royal. | ||||||
21 | Milwaukee Brewers | 12 | 10 | 10 | 22 | |
The Brewers pitching looks suspect, like many predicted; unfortunately one culprit is ace Yovani Gallardo. | ||||||
22 | NY Mets | 6 | 14 | 17 | 21 | |
Is John Maine really as bad as he’s pitching? The team is under-achieving at this point | ||||||
23 | Cleveland Indians | 4 | 7 | 30 | 19 | |
The Tribe is living down to potential at this point. | ||||||
24 | Washington Nationals | 10 | 5 | 15 | 18 | |
5th worst run differential in baseball; on pace for 115 losses. | ||||||
25 | San Diego Padres | 5 | 12 | 16 | 18 | |
The Padres are almost neutral in run differential; if they keep it up, they could finish close to .500. | ||||||
26 | Seattle Mariners | 7 | 6 | 20 | 18 | |
The Mariners are hurting without Cliff Lee; they’d probably be hurting with him too. | ||||||
27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |
No real surprise here, as they are working on building a system like the other successful small market clubs. | ||||||
28 | LA Angels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | |
Many predicted their downfall, but not to this degree. | ||||||
29 | Houston Astros | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | |
Last team to win a game in the majors; they look pretty lost. | ||||||
30 | Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | |
A horrible start for the O’s; may have closer issues with Mike Gonzalez. |