One stat in baseball that drives me nuts is the Quality Start. I like it in theory, but it’s flawed in its current inception.
A quality start is one where a starting pitcher will go at least 6.0 innings and gives up 3 earned runs or less.
The stat was created by John Lowe, who worked for the Philadelphia Inquirer, back in late 1985. His reasoning:
>A pitcher gets credit for a quality start any time he allows three earned runs or less in a start that lasts at least six innings.
The foremost attribute of this statistic is that it shows exactly how many times a man has done exactly what his job is — pitch well enough for his team to have a chance to win.
Like I said, it’s good in theory. Here’s the flaw – that would be a 4.50 ERA; that’s far from quality, in my opinion. Rob Neyer (subscription required) played with some numbers in 2006 about the the win percentage of quality starts; pitchers who are credited with a quality start have a win percentage of .674. That’s pretty good and tracks what Lowe wanted to see, but the name isn’t right.
I’d like to see either one of 2 things happen:
1. Change the name. This won’t happen though, since almost nothing changes in baseball.
2. Change the qualification of a quality start. Why not change a quality start to 2 ER over 6.0 innings; that would give you an ERA of 3.00. How about 3 ER over 7.0 innings; that’s an ERA of 3.43.
One thing Neyer does point out that only 9.2% of quality starts in 2005 had the pitcher going 6.0 and giving up 3. That’s not a lot, but it still factors in.
A good argument for extending the innings to 7.0 is that your starter gives you a better chance to win than a reliever; 99% of the time, a reliever was a failed starter at some level in their career. The next best option after your starter is the closer, so using as few pitchers as possible to bridge the gap would ensure the best chance of winning.
So, I decide to look at Zach Greinke and his quality starts. As the definition stands now, Greinke has 26 quality starts out of 32 (pretty impressive). In those starts, he was 14-4 with a 1.52 ERA.
| Date | Opp | Final | W | L | IP | ER | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-Apr | White Sox | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 18-Apr | Rangers | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 24-Apr | Tigers | 6-1 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 29-Apr | Blue Jays | 11-3 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 | 2 | 2.57 |
| 4-May | White Sox | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 9-May | Angels | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 8.0 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 15-May | Orioles | 8-1 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.29 |
| 21-May | Indians | 3-8 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 2 | 3.00 |
| 26-May | Tigers | 6-1 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 1 | 1.00 |
| 31-May | White Sox | 4-7 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 3 | 3.86 |
| 11-Jun | Indians | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 3 | 3.70 |
| 23-Jun | Astros | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 28-Jun | Pirates | 3-2 | 1 | 0 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.86 |
| 3-Jul | White Sox | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | 6.0 | 2 | 3.00 |
| 8-Jul | Tigers | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 6.0 | 3 | 4.50 |
| 18-Jul | Rays | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.29 |
| 24-Jul | Rangers | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.29 |
| 29-Jul | Orioles | 3-7 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 2 | 3.00 |
| 8-Aug | Athletics | 12-6 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 | 3 | 3.86 |
| 14-Aug | Tigers | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 25-Aug | Indians | 6-2 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 2 | 2.25 |
| 30-Aug | Mariners | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 5-Sep | Angels | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 11-Sep | Indians | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.29 |
| 22-Sep | Red Sox | 5-1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 27-Sep | Twins | 4-1 | 1 | 0 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.29 |
| Total | 14 | 4 | 189.2 | 32 | 1.52 | ||
If you change quality starts to 6.0 innings and 2 ERs, he loses 4 quality starts (5/31 vs CHW; 6/11 vs CLE; 7/08 vs DET; 8/08 vs OAK). With those removed, he’s 13-3 with a 1.11 ERA.
If you change quality starts to 7.0 innings and 3 ERs, 7 quality starts get knocked off his record (4/08 vs CHW; 5/21 vs CLE; 6/28 vs PIT; 7/03 vs CHW; 7/08 vs DET; 7/29 vs BAL; 9/22 vs BOS). If you take way those starts, he is 13-2 with a 1.25 ERA.
Whichever way you pick, he had a strong season.
I think the 7.0 innings and 3 ERs is the way to go; the ERA for that is closer to league average and 7 innings isn’t too much to ask of a starter.
