It was only a few years ago that the NL Central looked pretty good; the Cardinals were always in the mix, the Cubs would battle right there with them, and the Astros always had their say in the standings. Over time, Milwaukee improved to be part of the mix.
This year though, it’s a different story:
| Team | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 20 | 14 | .588 |
| Reds | 19 | 15 | .559 |
| Brewers | 15 | 19 | .441 |
| Cubs | 15 | 20 | .429 |
| Pirates | 14 | 20 | .412 |
| Astros | 12 | 21 | .364 |
With only 2 teams above .500, the division looks pretty weak. Only the AL Central can match this.
Let’s look at each team…
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are the favorites here, as they boast 2 of the 3 Cy Young finalist and the reigning MVP. The problem has been the hitting; they are very inconsistent. Matt Holliday is not playing up to his monster contract. Brendan Ryan is showing that last year was a fluke. There are plenty of uncertainties on the bench. Factor in Felipe Lopez’s DL stint, and these hitters don’t look very deep.
The rotation has been great, other than Kyle Lohse. Lohse looks like his normal self, other than that fluke year in 2008 that got him paid. The bullpen has plenty of question marks as well, starting with closer Ryan Franklin. Last season, Franklin was the top closer for the first 4 months of the season; he was horrible for the remaining 2. We’ve heard everything from his lack of closer stuff to mis-use early in the season.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are in second off a 5 game winning streak and a 7-3 record in their last 10.
Joey Votto has been carrying the offense; he’s got 8 homers and 24 RBIs in 34 games. The catching tandem of Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez has been more productive that people anticipated.
Their problem has been with the starting pitching. Rookie Mike Leake is the only starter with an ERA below 4; he and Johnny Cueto are the only ones under 5. Leake was drafted last year and skipped over the minors to land a spot in the rotation. Homer Bailey is starting to put it together, but they’ll need more out of Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang if they want to take the division.
Milwaukee Brewers
The offense has been pretty good, lead by Ryan Braun. They are in the top 5 in Hits, Doubles, Triples, RBIs, Walks, On Base, and Slugging.
Surprisingly, Casey McGehee is leading the team in home runs and RBIs; based off his track record, I wasn’t expecting a repeat of last year.
As expected, the starting pitching hasn’t been division winning. The top 3 have been good (Gallardo, Wolf, Bush); the remaining 2 spots have not been. Chris Narveson (3 starts, 5.06 ERA), Jeff Suppan (2 starts, 6.41 ERA), and Doug Davis (7 starts, 7.56 ERA) have the Brewers thinking about other options.
They are also struggling out of the bullpen. Closer and future HOFer Trevor Hoffman has 4 blown saves and a 12.00 ERA. Key addition and set-up man LaTroy Hawkins has 3 losses, 2 blown saves, and a 9.26 ERA.
Chicago Cubs
The favorite punching bag of Cardinal fans have struggled pretty much the whole season.
Their hitting has been middle of the road. Alfonso Soriano is doing OK, but he’s still not the player he was when he signed his current contract. Marlon Byrd has been better than expected. The problem has been the corner infielders. Derek Lee is hitting .229 and Aramis Ramirez is hitting .159.
This has sparked the Cubbies to promote top prospect Starlin Castro. He’s started well for the team, but many fans are worried that they pushed him up to quick, a la Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Mark Prior, Rich Hill, etc. Only time will tell.
Their pitching has been the same. Outstanding performances from Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva have been overshadowed by struggles of Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. The bullpen has been good, anchored by Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The surprising part of the Pirates season is that they are not in last place. Andrew McCutchen has been the lone bright spot on offense; he’s showing speed, power, and patience.
The next best hitter is Andy LaRoche, who’s hitting .286 with 3 homers. They have everyday second baseman Akinori Iwamura hitting .169; his paycheck is keeping him in the line up at this point.
The pitching is worse. 8 pitchers have made starts for the team, with only Ross Ohlendorf and Brian Burres pitching respectable. Closer Octavio Dotel is 6 for 8 in save opportunities and is sporting a 7.43 ERA.
Houston Astros
Things are bad in Houston, and things don’t look like they’ll be improving.
The line up is one of the worst in baseball; they rank last in hits, runs, RBIs, average, on base, and slugging (and second to last in homers). Their top hitter is starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez. They have no regulars batting over .300; only Geoff Blum and starters Rodriguez and Felipe Paulino are hitting above .300.
The pitching looks as bad. The top of the rotation has looked good (Oswalt and Myers), but starters 3-5 are a whopping 3-13 with a 5.47 ERA.
The bright spot has been closer Matt Lindstrom; he’s 8 for 8 in save opportunities and 13:3 K:BB ratio; part of his problem in the past has been his control, which has looked good this year.
Outlook
I don’t think the division is as bad as it looks, but wouldn’t be surprise to see the standings finish this way. I think the Brewers and Cubs will both start playing better, while the Cardinals and Reds play at the same level.
