Before I look at a pair of surprising conference finals, I would like to say something about the NBA draft lottery, which took place on Tuesday night. And just a disclaimer, this is not a guide on how to rig it. I doubt the NBA would want any part of rigging the lottery. I can only assume that this is the reason why I had to watch two different demonstrations of how the lottery machine works on the same half hour special.
Rather, I would like to talk about how to solve the obvious issues with the lottery (or the John Wall sweepstakes, if you prefer). I know that the lottery is in place to prevent teams from tanking their seasons to get the top picks. That’s a worthy cause. But there is an issue. The Nets finished with 12 wins last season. The T-Wolves finished with 15. The third worst team, Sacramento, finished with 25.
Consider those numbers. Again, I see the purpose of the lottery, but I also think that the NBA draft should give the best young talent to the weakest teams. In this draft we have a clear top two: John Wall and Evan Turner. This season we had an obvious bottom two: New Jersey and Minnesota. But neither of those players will be drafted by either of those teams. I think there is something wrong.
Here’s a solution: if a single team wins fewer than fifteen games, they get the top pick. If two or more teams finish under fifteen wins (which is relatively uncommon), they have their own lottery (and their own half-hour ESPN extravaganza), with the worst team having slightly better odds of winning. This prevents upstart teams from snatching the #1 pick from the bottom feeders (as in the examples below)
Consider the examples from the past several drafts. In 2008, the Heat finished with a pathetic fifteen wins, but they lost the lottery to Chicago, who had a 1.7% chance of winning. This still feels wrong to me. Instead of drafting Derrick Rose, a rising superstar, they picked Michael Beasley. Let’s just say that the 2008 draft worked out poorly for Miami. In my system, Miami gets the top pick, which makes sense because they were the worst team.
A second example. The 2005 Atlanta Hawks (a dreadful team) finished with 13 wins. Despite being the worst team in the NBA, they had to pick second because the fickle draft lottery awarded the number one pick to the Milwaukee Bucks, a 30 win team. In case you don’t like math, the Hawks lost the lottery to a team that finished 17 wins ahead of them. That should not happen, and it would not happen under my system. It’s only logical.
The 1997 Vancouver Grizzlies finished with 14 wins. They lost the lottery to the 20 win Spurs, who were only a poor team because of injuries to key players. The Grizzlies missed out on Tim Duncan and watched as he won four rings with San Antonio. The Grizzlies ended up moving to Memphis and 13 years later are still mediocre. I’m not saying that Duncan would have won four rings in Vancouver, but still, it’s undeniable that the lottery dealt the Grizzlies a harsh hand.
I could go on, but you all see my point. If a team clearly is deserving of the top pick, why torture them by making them sweat out a lottery? If two teams are clearly the weakest, why not award one of them the number one? Let’s let the worst teams get the best picks. Think of the fans who sat through a truly miserable season and just want to believe again. They deserve this.
Now this system would not be perfect. Perhaps teams will tank more heavily in order to win fewer than fifteen games. I maintain that a team would have to try from the season’s onset in order to tank this badly, thus making it not much of an issue. I know this system has issues, but I’m nonetheless confident that is better than the current lottery. The highest picks should go to the worst teams. It’s just what makes sense.
Moving on the the Eastern Conference Finals. Somebody call the paramedics and save the Orlando Magic. This is absurd. I was so sure the Magic were going to win the East, I called it even before Boston and Cleveland finished their series.
I was somewhat tentative about this once resolute prediction after the Celtics’ terrific game six against the Cavs. I knew the C’s would put up a fight, but I still thought the Magic would be better. But after Orlando laid down and died (at home, twice), I’m thinking the Celtics will win this easily. Maybe in four games.
I’m still trying to figure out how this happened. Is it that Orlando is much worse than we thought, or that Boston is much better than we thought? I say it’s some combo of the two.
Clearly we overestimated the Magic. The Bobcats obviously were an unworthy opponent. The Hawks were just as bad. Perhaps all it took was a real opponent to take down the once bullet-proof Magic. They’re headed to Boston down 0-2, and they have no excuses. If they get swept, they are just as disappointing as the Cavs.
However, I think the Celtics are as responsible for their improbable 2-0 lead. At the onset of the postseason, they appeared to be a tired, banged up team that limped to the playoffs after a scorching start. Guess who was wrong? The Celtics have come together and are playing more like the team that started 23-5 than the team that finished 27-27.
So, I’m formally withdrawing my prediction (again). The Magic will not win the East. Boston looks too hungry, too tough, too experienced. They will not blow four of five with three games at home. They will move forward to the finals.
Fortunately, my Western Conference champion is still going strong. The Lakers, winners of eight in a row, dropped 252 points on the Suns and grabbed a 2-0 series lead. The Lakers have a clear size advantage that Phoenix simply cannot surmount. The Suns are a good team, but the Lakers are simply better. Against a weak defensive team, L.A. has averaged 126 points and 57% shooting in their first two games. They are simply too good for Phoenix.
Considering the seemingly open and shut nature of this case, I’m going take a minute to talk about Kobe Bryant. I find it frankly amazing that I have yet to give Kobe his much deserved attention. I think it says something about the LeBron-Kobe rivalry that Kobe is still dominating while LeBron is taking an early vacation.
I think that Kobe-LeBron debate has to be put on hold for now. The facts are clear. Kobe has a more complete game than LeBron. He’s a better clutch performer. He’s a much more successful playoff performer. And he plays with a competitiveness that LeBron cannot even approach.
In an interview with Rick Reilly last year, when asked how badly he wanted a ring, Kobe said, “Beyond your comprehension. I’m obsessed. It keeps me awake at night.” Dramatic? Perhaps. But it also shows Bryant possesses an unbelievable competitive fire. He was absolutely desperate for a ring last year, and I’d say he’s close to that level this year.
LeBron? Not the same. LeBron wants to amaze the fans. He wants to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine. He wants to be on Sportscenter’s top plays. He wants to be a global icon unlike anything any other athlete has been.
But does he want to wins a bushel of titles? I don’t know if he does. I know he’s been on limited teams his entire career, that’s not the issue. It’s more the fact that he seems to accept losing as part of basketball. But Jordan refused to lose. Kobe still refuses to lose. That what sets them apart from the rest of the ubertalented superstars.
LeBron is the best athlete in the NBA. He has the most talent. He’s the most entertaining. Despite the fact that he’s ringless after seven seasons, he’s the face of the NBA. But Kobe is the superior player. He has the more polished game. He controls the flow of a game better than LeBron. He’s a better shooter. He’s probably a harder worker. And he is undoubtably a better competitor.
LeBron is brilliant. But Kobe is far from done. He has the best team, appears likely to capture his fifth championship, and is an unparalleled competitor. LeBron is the biggest personality, and the King of the NBA. But Kobe is still the best player. He will play until he cannot play anymore. He will win until he cannot win anymore. And he will dominate until he cannot dominate anymore. Watch out LeBron. Kobe is not done yet.
