UFC 119 Preview Part Three: Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

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There are certainly more similarities than differences between these two fighters. Both have name value and bring strong MMA records into the Octagon with them. Both also have very limited experience inside the UFC. Bader was the Ultimate Fighter Season 8 light heavyweight tournament winner (under coach Minotauro Nogueira ironically enough) and since then has gone 3-0. Nogueira had a lengthy and storied career in PRIDE where he went 8-2 and notched victories over Alistair Overeem  (2, to be precise) and Dan Henderson. From there he played around in Affliction and Sengoku before finally joining his brother in the UFC in November of last year. He has claimed two victories in two fights beating Luiz Arthur Cane and Jason Brilz. Both are also trained for ground combat more so than standup combat although Nogueira has made something of a radical change in approach in recent years. Throughout the early stages of his career he won nearly all of his fights via submission or decision but during the seven match win streak that he is currently on four of them came via KO or TKO.

Still the most noticeable and important difference is the seemingly opposite directions that their careers are headed. Bader is an all out stud shooting his way to the top of the UFC’s crown jewel division. If he were competing in a less competitive division (say, oh I don’t know, Middleweight) he would be on the cusp of a title shot. In his last outing at UFC 110 Bader ran over Keith Jardine though I suppose that victory means less now than it did at the time. When Jardine wanted to stand up Bader outboxed him and when it was time to move the fight to the mat Bader did so at will keeping him there without much effort at all. Bader’s background is wrestling and at Arizona St. he compiled 120 wins and was a 3 time PAC 10 champion. He is one of the purest dual threats in the game today and will work all of his skill sets against Nogueira this Saturday.

Nogueira meanwhile has the appearance of somebody who is about to leave their peak years behind. He’s 34 years old (7 years the elder as someone might say) and is starting to wear out. We last saw him at UFC 114 against Jason Brilz and even though he got the W, and even though it got Fight of the Night, it wasn’t a pretty sight. Nogueira spent a good portion of the fight plodding around the cage, taking a pounding and then attempting a counter. The decision was split and controversial but it did prove that even if he isn’t throwing wild offense he can still do enough to convince the judges of his merits. There have also been reports coming out of Brazil that this training camp hasn’t been the greatest for him. He has seemed unfocused and unmotivated. That’s not to say that that isn’t a smoke screen being thrown up by the Noguiera’s but it is hardly something that I find surprising.

Even though in that fight with Brilz Nogueira took more of a pounding (at least on my scorecard) he never seemed to be in danger of being finished. Bader is a step or four up in competition and I think he will come closer to finishing the fight but I think the mythical Nogueira guard is just too good for him to get through. I expect this fight to take place about 75-80% on the ground, the majority of that with Bader in a dominant position. Nogueira will do some damage and probably win a round but I’ll stick with the favorite here to simply be too much to handle. There have been whispers about this being a title eliminator match but I think we all know that this division isn’t going to clear up any time soon. What to do with the winner of Machida/Rampage or Jon Jones? And the next title match isn’t even going to take place until March or so when Shogun’s knee clears up. Too bad for Bader but possibly good for us because it could potentially set up a true title eliminator in Bader vs. Jones. I guy can dream right?

Pick: Ryan Bader via decision