Sliced Spread: 2010 NFL Football Week 3 Picks and Predictions

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Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head-to-head survivor picks, and score prognostications.

It’s been a rough start to the season so far, as I have now gone 6-10 ATS in Week 1 and 5-11 ATS in Week 2. This past week, however, I blame the Raiders (-3.5, won H2H 16-14 over St. Louis), Eagles (-3.5, won H2H 35-32 over Detroit), and Redskins (+2.5, lost H2H 30-27 to Houston) for losing their covers very late in their respective matchups. Those three games just prove the point that there’s always a fine line between getting 5 wins and going .500 when picking against the spread.

With that said, there are always silver linings to be found when breaking things down. First, here’s the updated rundown of where I stand after Week 2:

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 2 BREAKDOWN

WEEK 2 ATS: 5-11
WEEK 2 LOCKS ATS: 1-2
WEEK 2 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Green Bay over Buffalo)

THIS SEASON ATS: 11-21
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 1-5

H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)

As for those silver linings, I can point to a few things:

–I was right about Kansas City (+1.5) on the road against Cleveland, with the Chiefs winning 16-14

–I was right about Cincinnati (+1.5) at home against Baltimore, with the Bengals winning 15-10

–I absolutely nailed the Packers (-12.5) pick both ATS and in Survivor, with the Packers absolutely trouncing the Bills 34-7 (my prediction was 38-3).

–And, as a Jets fan, I was happy to be wrong about their chances against New England. It was a very pleasant surprise seeing Mark Sanchez overcome adversity and throw three TD passes en route to a 28-14 Jets win at home that Rex Ryan and company desperately needed to reset their season.

Onto Miami for the Jets, and onto my Week 3 picks and predictions as I try to bounce back again:

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 3 PICKS

Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().

SUNDAY

KANSAS CITY (+1.5) over San Francisco
– The Niners played tough on Monday night against the Saints, but in the end they just couldn’t overtake the defending Super Bowl Champs. They now have to pick up the pieces and head to Arrowhead to square off against a stout Kansas City team, a hot hand that I will keep riding until they cool off. Ultimately, the Niners come out flat on short rest on the road and fall to 0-3. Chiefs win 21-20

*LOCK IT UP / H2H SURVIVOR PICK: NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Buffalo – I expect this to be a blowout of epic proportions, with an angry Patriots team refocusing to destroy the Bills, who just might go 0-16 this season. Patriots win 42-6

TAMPA BAY (+1.5) over Pittsburgh – Most people think that this is a no-brainer, the prevailing thought being that the Steelers will march into Tampa and impose their will on an inferior Bucs team. However, I have a feeling that the Steelers – with either Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich as their starting QB this week – are due for a letdown on the road that will pave the way for a close Bucs win in an ugly contest. Buccaneers win 13-10

Atlanta (+4.5) over NEW ORLEANS – I think the Saints have made it pretty clear that they are primed and ready for a second Super Bowl run. With that said, the Saints are 1-1 ATS in this early season, and I have a feeling that the Falcons will produce enough offense to give New Orleans fits for the second straight week. The Saints win in their second consecutive nail-biter. Saints win 28-24

*LOCK IT UP: Cincinnati (-2.5) over CAROLINA – What really impressed me last week was the Bengals’ defense, which out-performed Baltimore in what was a hardnosed division matchup. With Matt Moore out and Jimmy Clausen in, the Panthers are likely going to look to run the ball and manage the clock. I think Cincy’s defense stays focused and Carson Palmer steps up to connect with his star receivers on a couple of deep bombs, paving the way for a Bengals win. Bengals win 21-12

Tennessee (+3.5) over NY GIANTS – The Giants and Titans both imploded last week. Tennessee committed seven turnovers en route to a 19-11 giveaway loss versus Pittsburgh, and all that needs to be said about the Manning Bowl is this: Colts 38, Giants 14. As a result, I think both teams are going to look to ball control as the key to victory, and so whoever wins will only do so by a close to slim margin. I’ll take the points. Giants win 20-17

Dallas (+3.5) over HOUSTON – I know, I know. Houston came back in rip-roaring fashion to beat the Redskins in OT last week, whereas the Cowboys simply tanked at home against the Bears. Football, however, has a funny way of evening things out in this era of parity, and sometimes you have to go with your gut over the popular trends when picking games. The Cowboys save their season here in a win born out of desperation more than anything else that might seem logical at this moment in time. Cowboys win 27-23

Detroit (+10.5) over MINNESOTA Imagine if Brett Favre and the Vikings fall to 0-3 by losing at home to the Lions? As sweet of a scenario as that is to ponder, I’m merely taking the points here. In this early season, backdoor covers seem to be all the rage, so I’ll chalk this pick up to a late Detroit flurry in an otherwise nondescript affair. Vikings win 30-22

*LOCK IT UP: BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland – Much like the Bills, the Browns are simply on that next level of awful where we might see them as 20-point underdogs sooner than later. Meanwhile, the Ravens are still mad at themselves for losing to the Bengals last week when the Baltimore defense dropped two gift-wrapped would-be picks thrown by Carson Palmer that could have made a huge difference in the game. The vengeful Ravens are going to crush Cleveland in this spot. Ravens win 24-3

ST. LOUIS (+3.5) over Washington – The Redskins suffered a real heartbreaker when the Texans came back to steal a road win in Washington. The Rams are 0-2 but they are a rambunctious 0-2, and I just don’t want to sleep on that fact with St. Louis as home dogs that are getting 3.5 points. Honestly, this has all the makings of a trap game for Washington, and I actually think the Rams take this one in an upset. Rams win 24-21

Philadelphia (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – I really thought that the Eagles were a sure bet to cover what looked like to meager 3.5 points last week, especially with Michael Vick leading the charge against the Lions. Of course, the Eagles won 35-32, and that one really stung me. Originally, I was leaning towards Jacksonville at home, but once Andy Reid came to his senses and named Vick the starter regardless of Kolb’s health, I figured it would be the right move to take another shot at an Eagles cover this week with 1 crucial point back in the bank. Eagles fly high on the road. Eagles win 31-24

Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA – This is my least favorite game of the week to pick. I have zero confidence in Derek Anderson, but at the same time, this week will be the Cardinals’ home opener against a Raiders team that is nothing to write home about either. I’ll take the points in a close call for Arizona. Cardinals win 16-13

Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER – Peyton Manning restored my faith in the Colts last Sunday night by lighting up the Giants for 38 points. After a performance like that, the sensible play here is the one that I will gladly make. Colts win 28-17

SEATTLE (+5.5) over San Diego – I’m not ready to trust the Chargers in hostile environments, and I am not ready to count out the Seahawks at home where they play their best football. Chargers win a shootout. Chargers win 31-28

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

MIAMI (-1.5) over NY Jets – Last week, the Jets scored 18 unanswered points to beat the Patriots 28-14. Of course, prosperity can be a tricky proposition for Gang Green, and the idea of a quiet week just doesn’t seem feasible for this team. Braylon Edwards – who was arrested for DWI in New York City on Tuesday morning – will play this week, though he will not start. More importantly, hamstrung CB Darelle Revis will not suit up to square up against WR Brandon Marshall, and as a result this will likely be the week where he and Chad Henne get on the same page. Why? Because Henne already has a knack for being a huge buzzkill for the Jets, even in this early stage of his career. Dolphins win 21-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

CHICAGO (+2.5) over Green Bay – The Packers head to Chicago on Monday night after two weeks off. Well, Green Bay did play Buffalo last week, but they probably would have expended more energy if they had a bye than they had to exert on the field against the Bills. All kidding aside, this division matchup pitting two 2-0 rivals against each other will be a huge dogfight, and the edge in my opinion goes to a Bears team that must be brimming with confidence after disposing of Dallas on the road. There is also added incentive for the Bears here to get some revenge for last season’s 0-2 record vs. Green Bay, and in the end I think they Bears will simply will want this win more than the Packers do at this point. Bears win 27-22

That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.

See you next week – CB.

CB is an Editor for Pulse Wrestling and an original member of the Inside Pulse writing team covering the spectrum of pop culture including pro wrestling, sports, movies, music, radio and television.