Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Over the past three weeks of NFL football action, I’ve gone 6-8 in Week 4, 8-6 in Week 5, and now 7-7 in Week 6.
I’m looking to get on more of a roll this week against the spread, especially with my locks of the week, where I seem to always go 1-2 since the start of this season.
Thankfully, my head to head Survivor picks have played out perfectly thus far, and the Steelers did me proud with a 28-10 win over the Browns that also managed to cover the 13.5-point spread as well.
Before I continue towards Week 7, I’d like to take this opportunity to tell the Texans (-4.5, won 35-31) and Giants (-10.5, won 28-20) to stick it by failing to cover in Week 6 against the Chiefs and Lions, respectively. Those outcomes were just two more reminders as to the ultra-fine line between .500 and the Promised Land in the parity-driven NFL these days.
But enough of that negativity…
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 6 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 6 ATS: 7-7
WEEK 6 LOCKS ATS: 1-2
WEEK 6 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Pittsburgh over Cleveland)
THIS SEASON ATS: 43-47
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 5-13
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 7 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
SUNDAY:
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) over Jacksonville – I’m going to be quick and to the point this week with most of my analysis. The Jags looked absolutely awful this past Monday night at home, and I just think the Chiefs – who tried to have a rousing comeback in Houston – will be poised for a breakout win to get back on track. Chiefs win 28-17
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over MIAMI – The Steelers’ defense is just too good for interception-prone Chad Henne, and now that Big Ben is back on the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh is even scarier than they were in the four impressive weeks without their starting QB in the fold. Steelers win 21-10
Washington (+2.5) over CHICAGO – Call this a gut feeling. The Redskins have been pretty good this season in some tough matchups, and Jay Cutler still doesn’t have any pass protection. Redskins win 24-20
TENNESSEE (-2.5) over Philadelphia – I am rolling with the Titans with or without Vince Young, mainly because I trust backup Kerry Collins to keep things moving for the Tennessee offense and also because I am not sure how tough the Eagles will be able to play on the road after DeSean Jackson’s grueling injury. Titans win 31-21
NEW ORLEANS (+13.5) over Cleveland – I really wanted to pick the Browns in a backdoor cover this week, but I just can’t figure out how they will travel to New Orleans and do anything productive. Also, the Saints finally look to be back on track after they destroyed Tampa last week. Saints win 35-16
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Buffalo – The Ravens must be fuming after losing to the Patriots in overtime last week. That extra motivation to win after a tough loss combined with their sheer talent advantage over the Bills have me tapping the Ravens as my head to head Survivor pick of the week. Covering the big spread will be an important added bonus, too. Ravens win 27-10
St. Louis (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY – I am going with the Rams because I simply no longer trust a regressing Tampa team that has forgotten what home field advantage means. Do they even remember how to win at this point? Rams win 27-24
*LOCK IT UP: ATLANTA (-3.5) over Cincinnati – The Falcons are much better than they showed last week in Philly. Meanwhile, the Bengals have no idea how to score points, and even with the bye week I think Atlanta has a huge edge in this game. I also think the Falcons will play with the type of bounce-back mentality any good team needs to have at home after losing on the road. Falcons win 30-20
San Francisco (-2.5) over CAROLINA – The Niners proved me wrong last week when they notched their first win against the Raiders and also covered an Albatross-seeming 6.5-point spread. This week, I think they march into Carolina and simply pound a Panthers team that has shown absolutely no life this season outside of their valiant but still futile attempt to upend the division rival Saints. Niners win 21-13
*LOCK IT UP: SEATTLE (-5.5) over Arizona – The Seahawks are just a solid home team, and since they are also coming off a rare road win, I am going to stick with them in this spot, even with the division up for grabs. I also don’t trust Cardinals rookie QB Max Hall in that hostile Seattle environment at all until he proves he can handle it. Seahawks win 34-17
*LOCK IT UP: New England (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO – If the Patriots can beat the Ravens, they can certainly handle the Chargers, regardless of where this game is being played. I just can’t go against Tom Brady when he’s on a roll and out to prove that the Patriots are just as good as the other current AFC contenders. I also know how much he hates the Jets, and he’ll look at this game as a way to hold serve during New York’s bye week. What’s going on with the reeling Chargers, anyway? Patriots win 35-21
DENVER (-6.5) over Oakland – I am extremely uncomfortable with this pick. However, I just can’t pick the Raiders here when they botched a similar spot last week on the road in San Francisco. Also, the Broncos actually played a much better football game than the Jets did last Sunday, losing only at the very end on a (legitimate) pass interference call followed by a LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown run to seal the game for Gang Green. Therefore, I think Denver is going to make it a point to punish the Raiders throughout this contest so that there is no chance of a second consecutive fourth quarter letdown. Broncos win 28-19
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
GREEN BAY (-2.5) over Minnesota – For the first time ever, Brett Favre and Randy Moss will be teammates against the Packers in Green Bay. My hunch here is that the Packers will make it a point to spoil the Vikings’ fun little reunion this week, especially with all eyes honing in on Lambeau Field in this marquee Sunday night matchup. Packers win 31-28
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS – The Giants are a good road team, and the Cowboys have not helped themselves this season while collecting some of the dumbest, most undisciplined penalties I have seen in years. Even if Dallas wins, it will be a field goal game. I just happen to think the points will swing in the Giants’ favor when all is said and done. Giants win 24-21
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
