MLB News: Why the Giants will win the World Series

Don’t you hate it when a guy makes a prediction without any scientific or mathematical basis—a prediction on a whim, more or less—and runs with it, sticking to it no matter what? Me too, but that is exactly what I am doing here.

Well, not exactly. I did do some very basic mathematical finagling to help me determine my prediction, but it is not based on some super-complicated formula or anything. I just looked at the teams’ basic regular season outputs in home runs, runs, winning percentage, et cetera and gleaned my guess, er, prediction from that. Then again, maybe I shouldn’t be using regular season statistics to gauge the postseason. Whatever.

Now, why do I think the Giants will win the World Series? Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Giants had a better pitching staff than the Rangers, with a team ERA of 3.36 to the Rangers’ 3.93. In addition, the Giants had the second-best bullpen ERA in the big leagues at 2.99—the Rangers ‘pen ERA was 3.38. Pitching wins ballgames, so it seems like the Giants have the upper hand. Though if the Giants’ pitching staff is that much better, then they should be able to win it in less than seven games…

…but to counter the Giants better pitching staff, the Rangers have the better hitters overall. While the Giants posted a team OPS+ of 95 (meaning they were below average), the Rangers posted a team OPS+ of 102 (meaning they were above average, though barely). Sure the Giants have sluggers like Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe (whose bat has been pretty silent this postseason), but the Rangers have Vladimir Guerrero and—oh yeah—Josh Hamilton. With that said, however, the Giants offense isn’t putrid or bad or anything—it is still pretty formidable and, though it isn’t better than its adversary’s, it won’t crumple like a used tissue against the opponent, either.

Overall, I believe pitching will prevail, though just barely. The 2010 Fall Classic will be fought valiantly by both teams to the very end—with the team from San Fran coming out on top.

Tags: , , , , ,