Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Last week was a bellwether week for me this season. Not only did I notch a sterling 9-5 record ATS to bring my season tally back up to .500, I did EXACTLY what I set out to do by nailing my three locks of the week and my head to head survivor pick. Therefore, I would like to say thank you Atlanta, Seattle, and New England for locking things down so I could lock them up, and also kudos to Baltimore for helping me avoid Survivor Pool catastrophe even though I was dead wrong on the Ravens covering that big 13.5-point number over those pesky Bills.
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 7 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 7 ATS: 9-5
WEEK 7 LOCKS ATS: 3-0
WEEK 7 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Baltimore over Buffalo)
THIS SEASON ATS: 52-52
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 8-13
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
Baltimore (Week 7, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 8 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
SUNDAY:
DALLAS (-6.5) over Jacksonville – Say it with me, “IN JON KITNA WE TRUST”, at least for one week anyway, at home against the lackadaisical Jaguars. Cowboys win 31-20
Washington (+2.5) over DETROIT – The Redskins did right by me last week with a tough road win in Chicago. The Lions can be a very tricky home team this week with Matthew Stafford coming back, but I think Donovan McNabb will ultimately stand tall in Detroit. Redskins win 20-16
*LOCK IT UP: Green Bay (+6.5) over NY JETS – The Jets have proven to be the class of the AFC so far this season. However, the Packers are gritty and I just have a feeling they will fight tooth and nail to play up to the Jets’ caliber in this spot. This will be a close game that the Jets pull out, but I just can’t see the margin of victory more than 3 points on either side. Jets win 24-21
ST. LOUIS (-3.5) over Carolina – Congrats to the Panthers for notching their first win of 2010 last week. I really don’t like making a call on this game, but the Rams are a better team than we are all used to seeing in recent years, and that counts for something against when defending home turf against a 1-5 team that still has some old cobwebs to shake out. Rams win 28-17
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: KANSAS CITY (-7.5) over Buffalo – The Bills gave it all they had in Baltimore last week, coming up short in overtime to remain winless. Earlier this season, after losing to New England 38-30, the Bills proceeded to get pummeled by the Jets 38-14 the following week. I think the Chiefs capitalize in a similar situation here, making this my survivor pick of the week. Meanwhile, Buffalo falls to 0-7, shamefully. Chiefs win 35-21
*LOCK IT UP: Denver (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – I was originally leaning towards San Francisco this week, until I remembered that a) the game is being played in London, NOT in San Francisco; and b) David Carr is starting for the Niners, NOT Alex Smith. No matter how horrid the Broncos looked last week, they will pull this one out overseas. Broncos win 20-13
*LOCK IT UP: CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Miami – Last week, the Dolphins suffered a real tough loss in Pittsburgh when they were on the wrong side of one of the wackiest plays (and instant replay calls) in recent memory. Will Miami be able to put “the fumble recovery that wasn’t” out of their heads as they travel to Cincinnati? Perhaps, but I think the Bengals pick them off here anyway, now that Cincy’s offense seems to be back on track after Carson Palmer’s 412-yard, 3-TD performance last week. Bengals win 30-21
Tennessee (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO – The Chargers might play desperate enough to beat Tennessee at home in a must-win situation, but I am not picking against these road-warrior Titans until they show signs of letting up. Titans win 31-28
Seattle (+2.5) over OAKLAND – Oakland put up Tecmo Super Bowl like numbers against the Broncos last week, scoring a whopping 59 points. There has to be a letdown after that, and the Seahawks are starting to grab my attention no matter where they play. Seahawks win 24-23
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) over Minnesota – Ankle injury or not, I know Brett Favre wants to play this game and help Randy Moss get some revenge against a Patriots team that just discarded him. I just don’t think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will let that happen. Patriots win 33-27
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over ARIZONA – Tampa narrowly escaped with an 18-17 victory over the Rams last week, while Arizona lost a battle with Seattle that left QB Max Hall concussed. Hall is not ruled out for Sunday, but I like the Bucs anyway. Buccaneers win 17-14
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Pittsburgh (+1.5) over NEW ORLEANS – The Steelers got lucky last week while the Saints were trounced by the Browns in a shocker. I think the Steelers’ defense returns to their true form faster than the Saints’ offense does. Steelers win 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over Houston – The Texans finally beat the Colts earlier this season. I just can’t see lightning striking twice in one year on Peyton Manning’s watch. Colts win 33-20
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
