Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
After last week’s 5-8 humbling record against the spread, I am simply going to chalk it up as one of those off weeks and move forward to Week 9.
Before I do that, I will say thank you to the Kansas City Chiefs for keeping my head to head Survivor picks perfect – at least that’s one area where I’ve been rolling along smoothly all season.
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 8 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 8 ATS: 5-8
WEEK 8 LOCKS ATS: 1-2
WEEK 8 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Kansas City over Buffalo)
THIS SEASON ATS: 57-60
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 9-15
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
Baltimore (Week 7, Win)
Kansas City (Week 8, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 9 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA – I know the Panthers played the Saints tough in New Orleans, but I just have that close call will keep the Saints motivated in this spot. Division rivals or not, this is just too much of a mismatch with a relatively low point spread (under 1 TD) when you’re talking about a momentum-carrying defending Super Bowl Champion visitor. Saints win 27-13
*LOCK IT UP: Tampa Bay (+9.5) over ATLANTA – The Falcons are a good team but the Bucs are no slouches themselves. Tampa is also undefeated on the road so far this season, and that’s just way too many points to pass up. Oh, and I think the Bucs actually win outright, too. Bucs win 24-20
*LOCK IT UP: Arizona (+9.5) over MINNESOTA – The Vikings have had a tumultuous week, first falling prey to the Patriots and then waiving Randy Moss. As bad as Arizona might seem, I just don’t think Minnesota has much fight left in them this season, especially as heavy favorites. They might scrape by here, but they are not going to dominate anyone the rest of the way this year. Vikings win 20-19
Chicago (-2.5) over BUFFALO – I know the Bills have come oh-so-close the past two weeks especially, but the Bears are coming off a bye week and this game is in a dome in Toronto. Some home field advantage. Bears win 17-14
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: NY Jets (-3.5) over DETROIT – When the Jets lost to the Ravens 10-9 in Week 1, they proceeded to reel off an impressive 5-game winning streak. I see this as a similar spot, where they will take last week’s 9-0 home loss to the Packers to heart and get their swagger back in Detroit. The Jets pull away late in my head-to-head Survivor Pick of the Week. Jets win 29-16
San Diego (-2.5) over HOUSTON – The Chargers have done practically nothing on the road this season, but after last week’s impressive win combined with a short week for Houston against their biggest rivals, I think San Diego will have every opportunity to come out on top. They capitalize enough and take it on a late field goal, possibly in OT. Chargers win 24-21
Miami (+5.5) over BALTIMORE – I just can’t fight the Dolphins anymore when they travel, until this little road streak of theirs is stopped. The Ravens could be that team, but it won’t be as easy as simply suiting up and showing up for Baltimore against an increasingly feisty Miami team. Ravens win a nail-biter. Ravens win 28-27
New England (-4.5) over CLEVELAND – This could be a letdown for the Patriots, but Bill Belichick hates Eric Mangini enough to make sure Tom Brady and the Patriots stomp on an inferior Browns team from bell to bell. Patriots win 38-12
NY Giants (-6.5) over SEATTLE – With Matt Hasselbeck ruled out for this game, the whole complexion of this matchup changes. After all, Charlie Whitehurst will now have to make his first NFL start against a fresh Giants defense that is fully rested coming off a bye week. Talk about a hostile environment! Giants win 23-10
*LOCK IT UP: Indianapolis (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA – The Colts as underdogs? I’ll take that pick and run with it almost every time. Colts win 31-28
Kansas City (+3.5) over OAKLAND – The Raiders have steamrolled over two opponents in a row. Will that trend really continue or will the Chiefs knock Oakland back down to reality? I vote for the latter because these two always play each other tough on each other’s turf. Chiefs win 30-27
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Dallas (+9.5) over GREEN BAY – Green Bay beat the Jets 9-0 last week in a very mistake-prone game on both sides. Dallas, meanwhile, showed no signs of life playing behind Jon Kitna. This has been a very unpredictable season, and while the Packers should blow out the Cowboys, I’m just not sold on Green Bay automatically going on a scoring frenzy that out-paces Dallas by 10 points. Packers win 24-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI – The Steelers will rebound on Monday Night Football while the Bengals continue to sputter. Steelers win 24-14
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
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