Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
I had a nice rebound week, finishing 9-4 ATS, 3-0 in my locks of the week ATS and scratching out yet another head to head Survivor pick win, thanks to the New York Jets’ late-game heroics that enabled them to pull out a gritty win on the road in Detroit.
Needless to say, I feel pretty good after those results in Week 9, and I just want to keep that positive momentum going as we head to Week 10.
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 9 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 9 ATS: 9-4
WEEK 9 LOCKS ATS: 3-0
WEEK 9 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (NY Jets over Detroit)
THIS SEASON ATS: 66-64
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 12-15
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
Baltimore (Week 7, Win)
Kansas City (Week 8, Win)
NY Jets (Week 9, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 10 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
ATLANTA (-1.5) over Baltimore – That’s right, Thursday Night Football is back again, and so we’ll be treated to an early Week 10 clash between two 6-2 teams that won last week. I am giving the edge to the Falcons at home, but this one can really go either way. The reason I tilt towards the Falcons is because Matt Ryan just seems to shine in Atlanta’s friendly confines. Falcons win 28-24
SUNDAY:
*LOCK IT UP: TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Carolina – With Matt Moore, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart all out for Carolina, the Panthers will have to reply on Jimmy Clausen, Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton instead. I think Tampa takes out their frustrations on the Panthers here and the Bucs simply dominate like they should in this spot. Bucs win 27-10
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over Cincinnati – I want to like the Bengals as 7.5-point dogs, but I just don’t have the heart to go against the Colts coming off a tough loss. Peyton Manning is too good to let this one slip away. Colts win 31-20
Detroit (+3.5) over BUFFALO – I know Matthew Stafford is seriously injured, but Shaun Hill is no pushover. Therefore, I can’t suddenly expect the Bills to a) win as favorites; and b) win as favorites by more than a field goal. Lions cover even if Buffalo gets an elusive win; I just happen to think 0-9 is in the cards for the Bills. Lions win 23-20
Minnesota (-0.5) over CHICAGO – Say what you want about the melodramatic Vikings, but that was just an impressive comeback win last week against Arizona. With all of the turmoil surrounding Minnesota, I’m sure it’s easy to make a case for the Bears to roll at home this week. Last I checked, however, the Bears still have no offensive line, and the Vikings defense could really open up the floodgates here against Jay Cutler. At the end of the day, I just see the Vikings pulling it off yet again. Vikings win 29-26
CLEVELAND (+2.5) over NY Jets – While the Browns smashed the Patriots last week, the Jets found a way to leave Detroit with a win to keep my Survivor picks record perfect on the season. I just can’t pick the Jets in this matchup because they haven’t played good football in about a month, and in that same timeframe the Browns have beaten the daylights out of the Saints and the Patriots. Now that’s momentum. Browns win 24-21
Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE – This is a very tricky game between two 4-4 teams that I just can’t seem to figure out on a week-to-week basis. I’m going with the team I think has more overall talent, begrudgingly, in a shootout. Texans win 35-31
Tennessee (-0.5) over MIAMI – Plainly and simply, the Dolphins got smacked around by the Ravens last week. I like the road warrior Titans coming off their bye week, especially now that they are armed with what should be a motivated Randy Moss now that the dust has settled from the Minnesota debacle. Titans win 28-19
Kansas City (-0.5) over DENVER – The Chiefs are simply better than the Broncos, and with a virtually even spread my choice is easy on this one. Chiefs win 27-17
*LOCK IT UP / H2H SURVIVOR PICK: NY GIANTS (-14.5) over Dallas – Thankfully, I still have the Giants available as a Survivor pick, otherwise I’d likely have to go with a Tampa team I don’t completely trust. I can see this one getting very ugly very early, just like it did in Seattle and Green Bay last week. Giants win 30-9
ARIZONA (-3.5) over Seattle – I have no confidence in the Seahawks after I saw them get dismantled by the Giants. Also, Arizona must be seething after letting the Vikings steal away what would have been an impressive road victory. I like the Cardinals to rebound as Seattle fails to show up. Cardinals win 26-12
*LOCK IT UP: St. Louis (+6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – I love the Rams as undervalued, underappreciated underdogs in San Francisco. They are clearly the better team and Sam Bradford has really impressed me this season. Rams take it. Rams win 24-17
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
New England (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH – I know the Patriots looked awful last week against the lowly Browns, but the Steelers don’t generally blow out good teams. I expect this to be a spirited effort on both sides, and so I’ll take the Steelers by a field goal and a Pats cover. Steelers win 31-28
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Philadelphia (-2.5) over WASHINGTON – Will Donovan McNabb come back after Washington’s tumultuous two weeks off with any motivation to make Mike Shanahan look good? Will Michael Vick and Andy Reid let the McNabb-led (for now) Redskins sweep the season series against the Eagles? Well, with Philly’s huge win over Indy, I think the pendulum will swing in their direction in this extremely intriguing Monday night matchup. Eagles win 32-21
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
