Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
It was definitely an eventful Week 12 in the NFL with some teams like the Bears rising to the occasion while others like the Steelers and Browns squeaked by over lesser opponents to avoid looking like league-wide turkeys during Thanksgiving week.
You can tell things are heating up around the NFL just by looking at this:
Moving forward, I look for more tempers to flare up during what should be an intense Week 13 as we head towards true NFL regular season crunch time in December.
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 12 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 12 ATS: 9-7
WEEK 12 LOCKS ATS: 3-0
WEEK 12 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Browns over Panthers)
THIS SEASON ATS: 92-84
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 19-17
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Tennessee (Week 1, Win)
Green Bay (Week 2, Win)
New England (Week 3, Win)
New Orleans (Week 4, Win)
Indianapolis (Week 5, Win)
Pittsburgh (Week 6, Win)
Baltimore (Week 7, Win)
Kansas City (Week 8, Win)
NY Jets (Week 9, Win)
NY Giants (Week 10, Loss)
Dallas (Week 11, Win)
Cleveland (Week 12, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 13 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Houston (+9.5) over PHILADELPHIA – I sense a shootout with the Eagles out-gunning the Texans at the end. Eagles win 33-27
*LOCK IT UP: Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT – I’m jumping on the Bears’ bandwagon following last week’s impressive win over the Eagles. I trust in the Bears’ defense to keep this potential trap game in check. Bears win 24-17
Washington (+7.5) over NY GIANTS – Donovan McNabb has a habit of playing the Giants tough, and the G-Men are still too shaky and depleted for my taste to blow anyone out, let alone a division rival. Giants win 23-20
New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI – I believe that SI Sportsman of the Year Drew Brees and the well-rested Saints will jump on the Bengals early and often, Sports Illustrated cover curse be damned. Saints win 30-17
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Buffalo – The Bills have put up some valiant efforts this year, including last week’s OT loss to the Steelers. With that said, the Vikings seem reinvigorated and I love them in this spot at home in the dome. Vikings win 27-16
San Francisco (+9.5) over GREEN BAY – I know the Packers generally play their best at home in December, but something tells me the Niners are going to keep this one just a little bit closer than the oddsmakers think. Packers win 28-23
Cleveland (+4.5) over MIAMI – The Browns and Dolphins are two enigmatic teams this season. With slight reluctance because I don’t fully trust Cleveland’s pass attack, I’m taking the points as I see a field goal game either way. Dolphins win 24-21
TENNESSEE (-2.5) over Jacksonville – Kerry Collins should be back behind center for Tennessee this week, and that alone should be enough for the Titans to put forth a more balanced effort at home against the Jaguars. I don’t like that the Titans are favored at all, but I also can’t get caught up in last week’s debacle in Houston either. Titans win 26-21
Denver (+9.5) over KANSAS CITY – I have loved the Chiefs in many different spots this season, including last week in Seattle. However, division games can be tricky propositions and I think Denver will keep things interesting until KC pulls away late. Chiefs win 31-27
*LOCK IT UP/H2H SURVIVOR PICK: SAN DIEGO (-13.5) over Oakland – The Chargers are surging while the Raiders are sinking. Enough said. Chargers win 35-13
*LOCK IT UP: Atlanta (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY – I love the Falcons on the road this week in Tampa, especially since the Bucs don’t always defend their home field very well against better teams. Anyone else remember that Steelers route earlier this season? I sense something similar here. Falcons win 34-14
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Carolina – I’ll take the Seahawks over the Panthers by less than a touchdown this week, regardless of last week’s results. Seahawks win 28-19
Dallas (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS – This goes against my normal intuition, but Dallas just might sneak out of Indy with a huge win as they play the role of December spoilers while trying to build some kind of momentum for next season. Cowboys take it. Cowboys win 28-24
St. Louis (-2.5) over ARIZONA – I’ve liked the Rams with Sam Bradford at the helm almost all season, and I definitely have been slipping up by picking the mediocre Cardinals way too often lately. That stops now. Rams win 27-12
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over BALTIMORE – The Steelers played down to the Bills’ level last week and escaped Buffalo with a win. I think they play up to the Ravens’ level this week and also escape with a win, perhaps in overtime again. Steelers win 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
NY Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND – Maybe this is just the Jets fan in me speaking, but I think the Jets will prove they belong in the Super Bowl conversation by knocking off the Patriots in what is easily the Monday Night Football game of the year. The Jets’ defense will do enough, Mark Sanchez and his receivers will come up big and Brad Smith will even throw a touchdown pass. Since I’m dreaming big, why not? Jets win 31-28
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
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