Considering that Thiago Alves (17-7: 11 KOs, 1 SUB) has only fought twice since the dawn of 2009, and lost both of those contests, he still remains a fascinating character who never bores and always has multiple subplots following him around. On Saturday at UFC 124 he steps into the cage against John Howard (14-5: 6 SUBs) in a fight that could potentially see him once again catapulted to the top of the division or have him packing his bag for the minors a la Gerald Harris. The UFC has never been kind to fighters who drop three matches in a row and even though his losses were to Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch, a loss this weekend could leave The Pitbull in a very vulnerable state. Making the whole situation even thornier is that he still considered by many to be the #3 welterweight in all the world. How is that even possible for somebody who hasn’t won since 2008? On the other hand would Dana White be crazy enough to release somebody who is held in such high regard by the media?
Then we have that other little piece of business that involves Alves’ brain, its AV malformation, and the subsequent surgery that took place to correct the condition back in March. Still he’s stuck with his chosen career path despite knowing that getting punched in the head is a major component of it, and on Saturday he will be ducking some of the most dangerous fists in the business. Howard himself is coming off a loss as back in August he and Jake Ellenberger were putting on a fantastic show until the ringside physician cancelled it due to horrific swelling around Howard’s eye. He was losing the fight up to that point but the stoppage deprived him of any chance of staging a comeback. That was his first Octagon loss after racking up 4 victories in his first 4 fights with the company, and as punishment (?) his level of competition was ramped up and he gets his first crack at a top 10 opponent.
This is expected to be the opening showdown on the PPV portion of the card and one suspects that the UFC sees this as a possible high octane, Fight of the Night candidate between two guys who like to bang. Making the situation even more delectable are the iron chins that these guys carry with them. Both are nearly impossible to finish (doctor stoppages not withstanding) and I see this slugfest going the distance. Alves may have the less attractive record and the more substantial losing streak but he also has more on the line. This is Howard’s first time on a PPV main card and nobody will fault him for melting under the spotlight. Alves seems to be slightly more talented and better suited to this matchup so I’m picking him but I expect the fight to be a lot closer than his -285 betting line would indicate.
Pick: Alves via decision
