UFC 125 Preview Part Three: Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva

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The third main card fight at UFC 125 pits two light heavyweight fighters that have been plagued by health problems throughout 2010, with Brandon Vera (11-5; 7KO, 1SUB) and Thiago Silva (14-2; 11KO, 2SUB) squaring off.

Brandon Vera has long been a frustrating fighter, the one time surefire heavyweight prospect having long lost the confidence and explosiveness that saw him win his first four UFC fights. Ever since he lost back-to-back fights to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum, Vera has struggled to regain his previous composure and form. This has remained the case even after moving down in weight to 205Ibs, with both Keith Jardine and Randy Couture outpointing him in close, awkward fights. Both fights highlighted a key flaw in Vera’s game, an inability to stamp his tactics on a fight and so avoid playing into the hands of his opponent. A flaw that is surely linked to Vera’s notorious lack of mental focus and discipline.

Both weaknesses were on display in his last fight when Jon Jones punished Vera for taking him lightly. Vera would offer little resistance as Jones quickly took him down and complacently relied on a laxily applied guard to stifle his opponent’s ground and pound. A viscious elbow to the face would end the fight and indeed end Vera’s 2010 with the force of the blow breaking Vera’s orbital bone in three places. A once again humbled Vera now looks to reestablish himself at UFC 125.

Thiago Silva last stepped into the Octagon almost exactly one year ago, facing Rashad Evans at UFC 108 on January 8th 2010. Silva would have no answer to the superior wrestling of Evans in the first two rounds only to almost steal the fight at the end, rocking Evans after catching him with numerous punches in the third round. Unfortunately Silva lacked the gas tank to fully capitalize and Evans was able to escape with a 29-28 decision victory. The reason why Silva lacked the energy late on was soon revealed with the news breaking that he had three herniated discs in his back. A comeback fight at UFC 117 was cancelled due to these ongoing problems with his back. As for Vera, UFC 125 marks a welcome return from injury.

To me this fight is Thiago Silva’s to lose, as the Brazilian not only has the mental strength that Vera lacks but also packs real power in his punches. And the threat that his hands pose will only be magnified in Vera’s head by the fact that Vera is returning from facial surgery. With Vera having got the worse of standing exchanges with the likes of Randy Couture, I just cannot see him being able to keep Silva out for three rounds. Silva usually finishes fights early and I see him doing the same at UFC 125 and in doing so bringing to a close the disappointing UFC career of Brandon Vera.

Pick: Thiago Silva by 1st TKO

A Comics Nexus original, Will Cooling has written about comics since 2004 despite the best efforts of the industry to kill his love of the medium. He now spends much of his time over at Inside Fights where he gets to see muscle-bound men beat each up without retcons and summer crossovers.