It’s a little ridiculous how dominant Manny Pacquiao has been lately. He sent De La Hoya into retirement and hit Ricky Hatton with a left hand that killed more than a few brain cells. He barely broke a sweat against Clottey, beat Antonio Margarito’s face into something that only slightly resembled a human being’s, and probably would have torn Mosley apart if Mosley had bothered to put up a fight. The last time Pacquiao was seriously challenged was in his 2008 bout against Juan Manuel Marquez. Now that Marquez and Pacquiao are scheduled to meet for a third time, Pacquiao better be ready.
After all, it could be argued that a single round cost Marquez victory in both fights.
In their first fight, Pacquiao absolutely destroyed Marquez in the round one. As soon as the bell rang, Pacquiao unloaded on Marquez with a flurry and sent him sprawling to the ground. Once the action resumed, Pacquiao rushed Marquez again with the same result. By the time round one was over, Pacquiao had knocked Marquez down three times and looked to be on his way to an easy victory. However, Marquez was able to rally back and nullify Pacquiao’s offense with precise counterpunching for the remaining rounds. In the end, Marquez had turned what looked to be a quick defeat into a draw.
In eleven of the twelve rounds of the rematch, the fight appeared to be dead even. Pacquiao was landing, but so was Marquez. In the fourth round, Marquez made a terrible mistake and tried to slug with Pacquiao; Pacquiao caught him with a hook and sent him to the canvas. Marquez was able to quickly recompose himself and avoid a repeat of the first fight’s opening round. It didn’t matter. Even though Marquez was able to rebound and counterpunch effectively, his single mistake was enough for Pacquiao to earn a controversial split decision victory..
Certainly these fights illustrate how dangerous Pacquiao is. But they also show that Marquez can defeat Pacquiao by using a defensive strategy and minimizing mental errors.
Stylistically, Marquez matches up very well with Pacquiao. Marquez is a very technical fighter with excellent counter striking. Pacquiao is at his best when he is able to force his opponent into a slug fest. Because Pacquiao throws every punch with bad intentions, he has a tendency to get wild and leave himself open. In both fights, Marquez was able to exploit this weakness to great effect. Pacquiao, at times, looked frustrated by his inability to get through Marquez’s counter striking. In a third fight, Marquez simply needs to stick with already worked.
It wasn’t a lack of a skill, but mental errors that cost Marquez both earlier fights. In the first fight, Pacquiao’s early onslaught caught him off guard and he wasn’t able to compose himself until the round was over. In the second fight, Pacquiao was only able to knock him to the canvas when he abandoned his defensive game plan and attempted to get aggressive. One mistake is all it takes for a fighter with Pacquiao’s speed and power to do serious damage. In their upcoming fight, Marquez needs to keep his focus and not let Pacquiao overwhelm or bait him into going punch for punch.
Of course, the two previous fights don’t tell the full story of Pacquiao v Marquez III. Unlike their previous bouts, this fight will be held at a catchweight of 144. Marquez’s only fight heavier than 135 was his tepid performance against Floyd Mayweather. He came into that fight looking softer, weaker, and slower than he ever had at a lower weight. Pacquiao, however, has had success fighting at a heavier weight. He is 7-0 in his most recent fights, of which one fight was at held at light welterweight, five at welterweight, and one at super welterweight. Although he’s not a large man by anyone’s standards, Pacquiao has the musculature to successfully compete at the heavier weight classes. This could prove to be the key factor when he fights Marquez.
Pacquiao has been so good as of late that it seems impossible for him to lose, but there’s no question that Marquez has the tools needed to defeat him. Ultimately, I think the outcome of this fight hinges on two factors: Marquez’s ability to keep Pacquiao away with effective counterpunching and Marquez’s ability to fight at a weight heavier than 135. If Marquez can avoid the mental errors that cost him the first two bouts and successfully navigate the move up to 144, Pacquiao may end up on the losing side of a decision. If he can’t, then it’s time to start looking towards Floyd Mayweather Jr again.
