With the Ultimate Fighter Season 13 finale only hours away, join Jon Kirschner as he analyzes the main-event and predicts the winner.
NOTE: Due to the lack of solid bets, we are straying away from the usual format of Bettor Breakdown. This edition will feature one overall tip, and one fight tip. Enjoy!
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Tip: Don’t bet on a fight that features fighters from the live finale’s season.
No matter how good they looked before getting knocked off the show, never bet on a TUF contestant when they get invited back to fight during the finale. First thing you want to take into consideration is their training. Training with elite UFC title contenders (whether it be Junior dos Santos or Brock Lesnar) is a lot different than training with your home camp. It’s very difficult to predict how a fighter’s skill set has advanced since their time on the show. Some may lack drive because they aren’t training with the likes of Brock Lesnar anymore. Some may excel under their home camp because it was set 100% around them.
In the dangerous game of gambling, when it comes to situations like these it’s safer to just stay away from the bet completely and save your money than risk it to win a small gain. Bookmakers usually don’t know what to make of the TUF contestant fights anyway; the odds are always so close together.
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Clay Guida at +210 (Bet $10 to win $21.00) vs. Anthony Pettis at -270 (Bet $10 to win $3.70)
After a five month layoff full of unfortunate twists and turns, Anthony Pettis is ready to return to action tonight. Some would consider his “ring rust” as a reason to bet against him, but the fact of the matter is Anthony Pettis has been working his ass off in the gym and is one of the most calm and contained individuals to step foot in the cage, so I doubt rust will be a factor. Pettis is making his UFC debut against a veteran in the lightweight division, Clay Guida.
We’ve seen Guida evolve before our eyes throughout his four year UFC career. As he’s learned more in his years of training, you could see him implement what he has learned during his fights. First we saw the slug-it-out and wrestle when necessary Clay Guida. Once he became known as an exciting fighter, he slugged it out even more. Then he started training at Greg Jacksons and walked into the fight with a clear game-plan and started using his wrestling to transition into dominant positions and the eventual submission. Tonight, I think we will see all the pieces of the puzzle come together; Clay Guida will walk in as the most complete version of himself to date. Pettis is a serious threat and definitely has a chance at winning, but I think Guida will come out on top here.
Guida is a HEAVY underdog at +210. I haven’t seen underdog odds this good for an established fighter since Sean Sherk outwrestled Evan Dunham at UFC 119. Pettis showed poor submission awareness when he walked into a lot of Ben Henderson’s submission attempts, but he showed resiliency when he escaped every time. Expect Guida to grind Pettis out to a late submission or a decision victory.
