UFC Preview Part Six: Weight Matters For Shane Carwin and Kenny Florian

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It’s appropriate that UFC 131’s two headline bouts take place at opposite ends of the weight spectrum as both Kenny Florian and Shane Carwin will have been thinking of little other than their weight over the past few months as they try to revive their career with the MMA equivalent of a full body makeover.

Most dramatic is Carwin’s, with the former heavyweight interim champion looking like a new man after dropping over twenty pounds in a bid to improve his conditioning. It’s an extreme response to his performance against Brock Lesnar at UFC 116 where with the undisputed title in his grasp his body seized up at the four minute mark. There has to be a question mark over whether the problem was Carwin’s physical conditioning or his match pacing. Having no experience of going beyond four minutes in any of his twelve previous fights expended a huge amount of energy trying to secure the early victory and the energy dump that followed may have been more an inditement of his overly aggressive tactics than him being overly heavy physically.

Likewise doubt can be cast on Kenny Florian’s justification for his move down to featherweight. Remarkably this will be the fourth division that Florian has fought at inside the Octagon, although admittedly that includes an early campaign at middleweight necessitated solely by his desperation to get onto the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Despite having been a middle-sized fighter at 155Ibs he has claimed in the past few months that he often felt outmuscled by bigger lightweights such as Sean Sherk, BJ Penn and most recently Gray Maynard. A more skeptical interpretation would be that Florian struggled against those fighters that could outwrestle him and deny him the space to work his technically fluid grappling and Muay Thai.

Such dramatic changes will necessitate a change in their fighting style. Carwin’s game  has been  about using his power and size to first bully and then demolish his opponents, will dropping the bulk lead to him having less strength in the clinch/takedowns and less power behind his punches. Is the improved speed and conditioning worth sacrificing that strength and power, particularly against a fighter in Junior Dos Santos who is both faster and lighter than him? Florian on the other hand has tended to be the smaller man, using his speed advantage to beat his opponent to the punch. Now he will be the one stepping into the Octagon as the bigger, slower man. Can he successfully adjust his fighting style to not only make the most of his newfound strength advantage but also avoid being caught out by the speed of his Diego Nunes?

With so many questions about their ability to thrive after making drastic changes to their bodies, it’s impressive that the UFC has put these marketable fighters in against such strong opposition. Junior Dos Santos and Diego Nunes both train at the legendary Black House gym and so form part of the impressive stable managed by Ed Soares that includes legendary Pride FC mainstay Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and current world featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Both Dos Santos and Nunes are looking to send a message by beating their more famous American opponent, Dos Santos that he is ready to challenge for the heavyweight title and Nunes that he’s marquee fighter who belongs on pay per view.

Whatever your thoughts about the changes Shane Carwin and Kenny Florian have made to their bodies, one cannot deny that each man is make a huge gamble by making in preparation for what are make or break fights. Indeed it would not be unwarranted to say that should either man lose on Saturday that it be the last time either one is seen this high up the card again. Carwin has not only past the always crucial milestone of his thirty-fifth birthday but has recently had extensive surgery on his back. While a victory will earn him a guaranteed title shot against Cain Velasquez, a second consecutive loss would see him fall from championship contention with relatively little time left in his career to claw his way back. As Florian prepares his mind must wonder back to his conversation with Dana White on the set of MMA Live where the UFC President said that a convincing win over Nunes may earn him the next title shot against Aldo. However he must also be aware that an unsuccessful debut at 145Ibs would only cement his reputation as somebody who chokes in the biggest matches.

Both Shane Carwin and Kenny Florian have the skills to defeat their opponents in Vancouver. Both have a range of skills that make them more versatile than their opponent. Carwin as a former NCAA Division II champion should have the edge in wrestling against a Dos Santos who has never even faced a wrestler in the UFC. And while Carwin lacks the technical finesse of Dos Santos when it comes to boxing, he does have the power punches that Dos Santos lacks. Meanwhile Kenny Florian is a genuine all-rounder against anybody other than an elite wrestler, with the grappling, takedowns and striking to cause most fighter serious problems. Pound for pound these two skills should earn the two Americans clear victories over their Brazilian opponents. But the truth is that weight matters in mixed martial arts, and if Carwin and Florian have misjudged their dramatic diets then they will fail to perform to their full potential at UFC 131.

A Comics Nexus original, Will Cooling has written about comics since 2004 despite the best efforts of the industry to kill his love of the medium. He now spends much of his time over at Inside Fights where he gets to see muscle-bound men beat each up without retcons and summer crossovers.