It’s time for part 2 of my (still late) NBA Draft and Off-Season Coverage. You can find Part 1 Right Here, covering the Southeast Division, including the always controversial Miami Heat. Today we’ll be covering the Atlantic Division.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have serious problems. They currently have six guys under contract, one of whom, the injury prone Jermaine O’Neal, can be a true center. The price of keeping their big 3 together is that they are already over next year’s likely post-lockout salary cap and can’t really bring in help. With that in mind, they drafted JaJuan Johnson and ETwaun Moore. Johnson is a big, more a natural 4 than 5, who won’t be a star, but should be a good role player with good length who can stretch the floor a bit. Unless strength comes, despite his shot and athleticism, he’ll just be good, but at least he’s a good player who should learn to play Celtic defense quickly. Joining Johnson, his college teammate at Purdue, Moore is a wing defender. What Moore isn’t in an athlete, he is in an on-ball defender and shooter. He should be a reasonable approximation of what Marquis Daniels gave the Celts before injury. I’m of the opinion that the Celtics missed big in not taking Jeremy Tyler, the young athlete with maturity issues that could have been mentored by KG into being a major star. With salary cap restrictions, Danny Ainge apparently decided that depth for one more run was more imperative than a potential boom or bust pick for the long run.
Where this leaves the team as a whole is, well, a step or two short of elite. They’ll have to stretch financially even further to have a properly competitive bench with Glen Davis and Delonte West free agents, and Jeff Green a restricted free agent. In almost any scenario, this necessitates the aging big 3 and injury prone Rajon Rondo playing big minutes – not a recipe for success for an older team. Kevin Garnett proved against the Heat beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he could not bring it every night anymore, while Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are still effective, neither is go to anymore. Rondo makes life easier for all three when he’s healthy and right in the head, but there’s no telling which Rondo shows up.
Luckily for Boston, KG and Allen come off the books after next year, when the team should be able to either re-sign them on the cheap and rebuild around them, or chase a new A-List star to pair with Rondo and Pierce. Unfortunately for Boston, Dwight Howard, the jewel of free agency, seems to have no interest in Bostin, but, still, Danny Ainge is a good enough GM and Doc Rivers a good enough Coach that they should be able to scrounge up enough to be competitive. Please note, however, that competitive is not elite, and Boston seems to lack a real way to return to a championship level without Rondo becoming a superstar.
New Jersey Nets
The Nets first round pick went to Utah for Deron Williams, along with last year’s first rounder Derrick Favors, but a later pick in the draft might have still gained them their starting 2 guard of the future at #25. Marshon Brooks seems an awful lot like the Atlanta Hawks’ Jamal Crawford – a 6’5 shooter/scorer with questionable shit selection who can provide instant offense. While that likely isn’t needed in the starting lineup where Anthony Morrow is one of the best (and most overlooked) shooters in the NBA, as well as a competitor on D, off the bench, with Sasha Vujacec a free agent, Brooks can immediately come in off the bench and put it in the bucket to keep the second team afloat. In time, with his worse decisions curtailed by the leadership of legitimate superstar point guard Deron Williams, Brooks could become more than bench scoring and be an integral part of a winning team. With the #36 pick, the Nets again duplicated a free agent in Jordan Williams, who, like free agent starting 4 Kris Humphries is a good rebounder who will compete hard on defense. Interestingly, though, where Humphries is undersized, Williams is actually pretty big and merely needs to get into better shape to really become a force. He can already space the floor and has a decent inside game – this seems like a steal of a pick.
Of course, as late picks, neither man may work out for the Nets, with Jordan a far riskier pick than Brooks, but that hardly seems a problem. Even with the weakness at the 3 and 4 (Travis Outlaw is not so much good anymore), the team has cornerstones at the 1 and 5, the latter being Brook Lopez. Brook had seemingly stopped developing with Devin Harris at the point, but was back to being devastating with Deron on the court, and, moreover, may just be a stopgap. The Nets real endgame is apparently aiming to pair Dwight Howard with Deron Williams. That would necessitate letting Brook walk, but even if Dwight doesn’t come in, Brook and next year’s #1 aren’t a bad backup plan.
Next year’s draft looks to be absolutely stacked, with the Nets seemingly likely to be bad again. They probably won’t be #3 pick bad, but even at around #7, most project a Jared Sullinger or Austin Rivers potential star to be available. Best case is that pick and Brook go to Orlando to pair Dwight and Deron, a finals level combination at the 2 toughest positions on the floor to fill. A likely solution is to keep Brook and the young star to pair with Deron and develop a team capable of toppling giants like the Heat and Bulls (not as farfetched as you might think).
All of this leads to worst case. Worse case is that heading to Brooklyn, Deron Williams leaves, and the Nets have nothing to show for the assets that ended up being Favors and Enes Kanter. The Nets would still be in strong salary cap condition, in Brooklyn, with a few young building blocks, but the franchise would be set back years. It’s an interesting time to be a Net fan, with the franchise’s future on the shoulders of one of the top 3 point guards in the game.
New York Knicks
The Knicks make no sense. In their big Carmelo Anthony trade with Denver, they made Landry Fields untouchable instead of Danillo Gallinari. Gallinari seemed to be a budding star – a shooter who could space the floor for Melo and Amare Staudemire, but was still traded away to keep Fields, who looked like a rebounding, defending, shooting role player that could contribute around guys who needed the ball in their hands. Not six months later the Knicks decided that Fields couldn’t be that guy and start for a contender and drafted a player who does the same things as Fields with more athleticism and less of a shot in Iman Shumpert. May I just say, huh? Especially with such a glaring need for size, this makes zero sense. Sure the Knicks took Josh Harrellson in the sound round, but a player that unathletic doesn’t fit in Coach Mike D’Antoni’s system and will likely not make the team. D’Antoni, by the by, really needs to hire a defensive coordinator already.
The Knicks do, however, seem to just be waiting and hoping Chris Paul, the third of the famous wedding toast to a new big 3, does join them to pair with Carmelo and Amare. With Paul, the smartest and most efficient PG in the game, it’s easy to see Melo and Amare hitting new heights, but contending for a title? Traditionally, that’s impossible without some kind of defense and a 5 who can at least take up space. The Knicks, lacking that, are a huge question mark. They have too much talent to miss the playoffs, but too many holes to get past the Bulls and Heat of the world. Is that good enough for New York? I have no idea how this team, in the CBA, supports a hard cap. It just guarantees mediocrity.
Philadelphia 76ers
What the Knicks didn’t do, the 76ers did in grabbing Nilcola Vucevic, a center who’s floor is someone like Memet Okur, a good starter, and who’s ceiling is like Marc Gasol. Assuming the haul back for Andre Igoudala is good and they re-sign Thaddeus Young, this is a team with depth built to play together. Evan Turner despite a weak rookie year can still easily be a star and will produce. Jrue Holliday is extraordinarily young and still improving on what is already around top 10 production. Young and Lou Williams are the top bench duo in the league. That’s a team reminiscent of the championship level Pistons with development and a couple more pieces.
There are problems, though. First and foremost, the East is tougher than it used to be. It remains to be seen if anyone can be a championship caliber star on this team, and if that is still entirely necessary. Further, they’re so good, it’ll require extreme luck to draft such a star. Why not sign one? Elton Brand, a solid player, but a shell of his former self, is too expensive for too long. An amnesty clause in the new CBA would alleviate that, but, barring that, they look to be a tough first-second round exit for the next few years. Much like NY, in a city this tough, that won’t be enough. Luckily for 76ers fans, they have more talent and options at more places, and can be less constrained by the choices of superstars and the new CBA. The question becomes whether it’s easier to build a championship system and insert stars or to build around championship players and insert role players. Neither option is a sure thing, but young players tend to improve, and I like Philly’s odds.
The Toronto Raptors
Jonas Valanciunas appears to have been a controversial pick, but, as one of the very few potential franchise talents in this draft, I’m unsure I see why. He’s a true center who consistently dominates competition on his level and has show the athleticism, skill, and work ethic necessary to get better. Sure, he won’t come over for one year, but all that means is the Raptors get to be terrible again and in the running for someone like Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, or James McAdoo.
Meanwhile, adding to franchise talents to this roster could be a huge win for Toronto. They have a lot of shooters, so Jose Calderon, a true point, isn’t a bad fit to help everyone develop, and he fills the slot for Jerryd Bayless, the team’s likely PG of the future. DeMar DeRozan has a great work ethic and excellent athleticism. He’s already a very good scorer and now can spend a year developing the rest of his game. Ed Davis is an athletic 4 who looks like he can start and plays hard enough to be a defensive force, as well, while James Johnson has the look of a solid starter, and, long-term, a very good reserve who can do a lot of things. That’s quite the talented core that it would be easy to see develop into a contender if they kept together, especially with Dwayne Casey as their coach.
Conspicuous in his absence during the discussion of building blocks is Andrea Bargnani. The former #1 pick has become a volume scorer who doesn’t rebound or play defense. Many will still argue he can become Dirk Nowitzki, but Dirk always rebounded and gave more effort than this. Casey’s biggest job is to figure out what he has in Bargnani. It’s unlikely he’s every worthy of his #1 pick, but properly utilized, with draft picks and if Jonas becomes a beast center, he can be a #2 option on a good team. He just needs to defend and rebound at a respectable, if still subpar level. Worst case, he’s a reasonably valuable trade asset, but, if he’s more, watch out; Bargs is a match up nightmare for the better Eastern teams.