NBA Log: Draft and Offseason Outlook Northwest Division (OKC Thunder, Trailblazers, Jazz, Nuggets, Wolves)

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The East is done! Click here for the Atlantic Division, here for the Central Division and here for the Southeast Division. Today, we’ll be going West with the fascinating Northwest Division.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are stacked. Everyone cried for them because of the untenable Carmelo Anthony situation, but they now go two deep at every spot and have a shot at having gotten back a star in that same deal. Let’s go position by position, starting with the easiest to discuss, the point guard.

Ty Lawson has proven his awesome college-to-NBA projection isn’t a fluke. The speedy point guard has a lot of Tim Hardaway in him and consistently is improving. Don’t judge him on the playoffs, either, as he was banged up. That, because of his diminutive stature, is the real issue. Of course, the Nuggets, naturally, go two deep at every spot. Andre Miller will capably back up Lawson, and as he’s good enough to start for a playoff team, that’s a ton of insurance. Miller’s pace, pass and drive based game has aged quite well, and he can be effective in almost any amount of minutes.

The 2-guard starting currently is restricted free agent Arron Afflalo. Afflalo, a lockdown shooter and knockdown defender, should draw a good deal of interest, but with right to match, looks to remain a Nugget unless someone goes crazy. Backup JR Smith, an unrestricted tree agent, is more likely to fly the coup, but the presence of another restricted free agent, Wilson Chandler makes that more palatable. Chandler is a great young piece at only 24-years-old. He can play anywhere from the 2 to the 4, cover effectively, shoot or drive, and even finish. He’s one the Nuggets would be crazy to let go and if re-signed, he can get good minutes backing up at the 2 and the 3. Should anything go wrong, the Nuggets drafted a player ready to come in and play at the 2 and 3 as well, Jordan Hamilton is ready to play now and reminds some of Joe Johnson.

At the 3 is the Nuggets potential star Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari is 6’10” and only 22. He is already a near elite shooter who is absolutely elite at getting to the line. With those skills and his size creating mismatches at the 3, he should be impossible to cover as he learns the league. Everyone says the Nuggets need a star, but a guy who can get to the line in clutch situations and is a near 90% free throw shooter can operate as a star for a team this deep.

Kenyon Martin, finally a free agent as his absurd contract has expired, is the incumbent 4. It wouldn’t shock me to see him brought back for his intensity and defense, but the numbers never matched up with his talent and with Afflalo, Chandler and the Center to re-sign, he could be a casualty of the cap. Luckily, then, the Nuggets got Kenneth Faried a fierce defender and potentially top tier rebounder in the draft. With Gallo and Chandler able to play 4, as well as Al Harrington, who’s still an effective scorer and defender, the position is well manned.

Center is the only spot that cans top Denver from being a real contender next year. Nene is a free agent. The Nuggets and he seem to be amicable to making a deal, and this is one that must be pursued with all fervor. Nene is a very good offensive player who shoots an extremely high percentage and anchors the defense. If he leaves, this team is a likely first round exit – if not, they are perhaps 1 year away from real contention. The reason they can even survive his departure for the playoffs is Birdman Anderson who is a great energy/defensive presence, Kafa Koustos, a serviceable in spot time big, and Timofey Mozgov who showed flashes of being a good rotation 5. The center by committee approach would likely keep the Nuggets out of the elite, but at this point nothing but utter disaster with injuries can keep them from being extremely dangerous.

Minnesota Timberwolves

There are two major questions that surround the Wolves. We’ll address the first, the draft, immediately. While I can see the argument for either Valanciunas or Kanter, Derrick Williams was, in fact, the right pick. He, with his energy, rebounding, and, especially scoring, creates a ridiculous mismatch for anyone on any opposing team. Kevin Love and Williams can both play inside or out, but opposing teams can in no way cover both inside at once. That forces doubles, rotations and mismatches, all of which allow open shots for the others on the outside and cutters access to the basket. Some claim incumbent 3 Michael Beasley offers the same thing, but he plays at a slower pace and is more likely to freeze the ball. What they have now could be dynamic. Beasley can either be a top scorer off the bench, backing up both Williams and Love, or moved for talent at the 2 guard spot, with draft pick Malcom Lee seemingly unlikely to make the team. This is, logically, the best course with Anthony Randolph seeming reborn in Minnesota and able to handle Beasley’s spot. Backup 4 Anthony Tolliver, a solid player, seems likely the odd man out, getting limited, spot minutes.

The Wolves are so loaded at the 3, their other two small forwards seem likely to get the majority of the time at the 2. Wesley Johnson will be the starter at the 2. An athletic 6’7″, he has all the potential to be a true star, at least on the defensive end. His shot isn’t terrible, but needs work. David Thorpe seems to believe that if he dedicates himself to driving and defense, he can be a near-star. With Rubio getting him the ball in the right spots, and adding in learning the league defensively, I expect next year to be a big breakout for Johnson. Martell Webster will back Johnson up and is himself a big talent looking for a role. He isn’t, however, great at the 2, so Wayne Ellington and Lazar Hayward seem likely to get some time. A trade for one bigger asset from all of these small ones makes even more sense.

Center is still Darko Milicic, a good backup center, getting paid good backup money. Against the bigger 5’s, he’ll get a ton of minutes. If not, he’ll play 20-ish minutes a game, then Love will man the 5, with Randolph/Beasley and Williams at the forward spots, causing match-up nightmares.

Finally, we come to point guard. After two disappointing (the system and injuries fault as much as his own) years from Johnny Flynn, he’s gone, and, finally, Ricky Rubio is here. Rubio figures to score nothing and shoot terribly, but his translated European stats suggest he’s already top ten in assists and steals, as well as a top rebounding guard in the league. With that in place, as he learns NBA offenses and defenses, as he’s only 20, he will blossom into a star. The talent and court vision are simply too much for him not to. He’s extremely similar to a young Jason Kidd, and likewise going to a team with a lot of talented parts that he will help make fit. Luke Ridnour, not quite good enough to start, is still a very effective backup who has helped Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings to a great rookie year.

The second big question, and last thing to discuss when talking about the Wolves, is the head coaching situation. Kurt Rambis, for years, forced a triangle on a team where it didn’t fit to his players detriment. Word is that now he’s out and the Wolves are looking for a new coach. They absolutely must pick someone with a strong offensive pedigree who can develop young talent. A proven track record in these things, even without a ton of wins, will be more than worth it not only in progress the players make, but their increased values as assets to consolidate and trade. That’s what the Wolves are right now – a ton of young assets that need the proper coach to help them gain value and, when properly assembled over time, vaulted into contention.

Oklahoma City Thunder

If this team doesn’t make the Conference Finals again, at least, it’s hard to imagine Coach Scotty Brooks invited back. This is the most talented team in basketball right now. Their 3-big rotation of Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison is among the best in basketball, and defensively second to none. Perkins, a year further from injury, should be back to shutting down big 5s. Ibaka is a block and rebounding machine who is finding his offense. Collison does every little thing you’d ask of a player and just helps win basketball games. When you add in Nazr Mohammed a big with title experience, it just gets unfair. Even if Mohammed leaves, that’s still a ton of talent with Cole Aldrich, a pretty damn good young player, right there.

The backcourt is locked up with dynamic talent that fills various roles. Russell Westbrook, for all the insane criticism he took during the playoffs, is extremely comparable to MVP Derrick Rose, is still improving, and might eventually be one of the best all around 1s in the league ever thanks to his incredible learning curve as he becomes a point guard on the fly. Backing him up is pure point guard Eric Maynor who could be on the block with Reggie Jackson, a combo guard similar to Westbrook having been drafted. Jackson is the same kind of athletic freak Westbrook is and can likely cause fits playing with him in the backcourt, especially defensively given the length, speed and tenacity of both. Add in Thabo Sefolasha as a shut down 2, since they don’t need offense there, and you have absolute dire straits for opponents on defense. On offense, of course, you have the favorite for sixth man of the year, the man perhaps best suited to run the offense, James Harden. Harden is a throwback 2, in that he’s athletic, but plays slow, letting the game develop and come to him as he reads the defense. He is, thanks to his shot and intelligence, absolutely impossible to guard, especially when on the court with Wesbtrook and Durant.

Ah, Kevin Durant, the two time scoring champion and consistently improving monster of a player. At 6’9, the slender Durant has great size for the 3, can score with anyone, and is just absolutely scratching his potential at only 22-years-old. He needs to improve his defense – it’s good now, but not yet consistently great – and become better at moving without the ball… but this is a scorer and a player who, if you’re lucky enough to have him, nearly guarantees contention with proper coaching. Adding this much talent around him is absurd. Expect this team, at worst, in the conference finals again.

Portland Trailblazers

If Greg Oden had panned out and Brandon Roy not gotten hurt, this team would be just as deadly as the Thunder. Oden is now a restricted free agent, but the Blazers seem likely to re-sign him. If he loses weight and retains strength, he can still be a dominant defender in the game. Alas, it’s sadly too late for Roy to remain a superstar. The injuries have taken their toll and while he will still be good, maybe even great as a sixth man, he was arguably a top ten player and those days are gone. His salary is now an albatross.

Somehow, though the GMs are fired rather than thanked, the Blazers remain a very good team. For that to continue though, thanks to Oden’s questionable health, free agent center Marcus Camby must return. Without him, the defense is, essentially, sunk, though the offense will still be very good.

Much of that is thanks to LeMarcus Aldridge. Despite not getting the credit, he was arguably better than Kevin Love or Blake Griffin over the entire year and has become a real go to star player, finally. Great wing play, no doubt, played a role in opening up his game, and Nic Batum, Wesley Matthews and Gerald Wallace need to be credited for hitting their shots, keeping pressure on the defense, and playing stellar D themselves.

The guy responsible for getting everyone the ball in the right spots will be a new player, Raymond Felton since he was traded for Andre Miller and a pick. Felton is far younger, faster, and a better shooter. He might not be the distributor Miller is, few are, but he’s not that much worse, and a far better shooter and defender. His new backup will be Nolan Smith, a man not expected to go until the mid-second round, but a winner who could find an Anthony Carter like place in this league.

It’s hard to see the Blazers, as currently constituted, without Oden and Roy producing commensurate to expectations, really contending, but they remain a deadly playoff team with great management who are able to defy expectations with quality at every position around their one star. That mix was enough for Dallas this year, so it’s not out of hand to believe that Portland has a shot, if a long one, going forward.

Utah Jazz

Like the Wolves, the Jazz are collecting assets. However, the Jazz are doing it far more quickly and efficiently. They just lost their Hall of Fame Coach and All Star point guard, but already seem to have moved beyond.

Much of that is thanks to the draft. The Jazz crowded their frontcourt with Enes Kanter, but Kanter is an excellent 5 prospect who has shown he can play physically against top talent. Adding in an athletic slasher who can score or dish like Alec Burks gives the Jazz an embarrassment of assets with major star potential. Let’s look further.

Along with Kanter and Burks, the Jazz have the player who is only 20 and would have gone #1 in this draft, Derrick Favors. Favors reminds of a young Antonio McDyess, and his athleticism, developing shot, and understanding of defense are coming along very quickly. Al Jefferson, a slow 4/5, is a beast inside and young enough to figure it out like Zach Randolph has. While not stars, CJ Miles and Gordon Hayward are excellent wing role players who can score in bunches as they learn defense. That’s a ton of young talent with veterans Paul Millisap, a great, if undersized scorer and rebounder at the 4, and Mehmet Okur a good floor stretching 5, left over to help the team stay competitive.

The only real hole, in fact, is the point guard spot. Devin Harris has proven that he isn’t great at helping young bigs develop, getting them the ball in their spots, and he’s actually actively bad at creating easy baskets. The Jazz were hoping, with the pick that became Burks, to replace him, but as is, they at least have plenty of talent to be able to trade for a point guard that can help their team grow.

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Glazer is a former senior editor at Pulse Wrestling and editor and reviewer at The Comics Nexus.