Rashad Evans has had such a resounding amount of bad luck with opponents and injuries that it’s almost comical. Waiting for Shogun Rua’s knee to heal, Rashad’s title shot went to Jon Jones after a training camp injury to Evans forced him out of the fight six weeks beforehand and the rest (as they say) is history. Now, with word of Phil Davis’s knee injury three weeks before UFC 133, Evans has a new opponent and one of the two fighters on his record he doesn’t have a win against: Tito Oriz.
It’s an opportunity for both to avenge what was scored a draw but Ortiz would’ve won, as Ortiz was rightfully scored two of three rounds but a bizarre point deduction on a first offense for a fence grab on Ortiz made the final scores 28-28. And for seemingly everyone involved it’s a win, as UFC 133 goes from a lackluster main event to one with some sizzle, except for Evans.
Ortiz’s a winner in all of this because he gets a second opportunity in as many months to continue his path towards regaining a title he lost years ago. His draw with Evans is something he always pointed to as proof that his decline wasn’t ability related, more injury related, and now he gets to avenge it. He does have only three weeks to prepare to face one of the best in the light heavyweight division but he’s done it before and Rashad hasn’t changed all that much since then.
Ortiz walked out of the Bader fight without a scrape and a three week turnaround will be much more about maintaining his conditioning and weight more than anything else. Ortiz was legendary for his conditioning at one point and claimed to have had the best camp of his career to this point. He also prepared for a fighter with similar abilities to Evans. Ryan Bader may not be as good as Evans, or have as good of cardio, but he has a similar style.
One imagines the difference in training for wrestlers isn’t as great as if Ortiz was stepping in as a last minute replacement against Lyoto Machida or Shogun Rua. Preparing for high level wrestling is something he’s already done and as such he won’t be facing a drastic style change in his turnaround between fights.
He also is coming off a resounding victory and is remarkably more confident than before; he thinks he can win and has done it recently. You can’t discount the ability of a fighter’s mindset to dictate his ability to pull off an upset, especially after such a resounding victory.
Dana White and the UFC come out as big winners here, too. Why? Because if Dana White can convince someone like Tito Ortiz, with whom he’s always had a contentious and cantankerous relationship, to step in on short notice then he’s done something remarkable. It gives him leverage over his roster of fighters; it’s going to be harder to decline a short notice fight for those with higher profiles if White can point to Ortiz taking a fight on short notice without an extended haggling session or higher money demands like Lyoto Machida allegedly wanted.
With everyone else winning, it would seem that Rashad Evans should be winning as well right? The problem is that now Evans goes from fighting a talented prospect taking his next big step up in competition to a fighter trying to resurrect his career in dramatic fashion. Losing to Phil Davis would’ve hurt his career to some extent but you can also point to his rise in the same way as the victims of Jon Jones streak through the light heavyweight division to Rua. In the end it doesn’t hurt as much because you’ve lost to someone who’ll be on top of the division in the near future.
Losing to Ortiz, on the other hand, sets him back more than losing to Davis ever could. Evans has waited over a year for a fight, for what he thought was going to be for a title, and getting a surging Ortiz at the moment is bad timing. He’s a substantial betting favorite and anything short of a dominating win at this point as to be a letdown. Ortiz is a step up in name recognition but has to be considered (at this point) to be a step down in competition because we don’t know if the Bader win was a fluke or a revitalized former champion finally healthy enough to resume his mantle as one of the best in his division.
This is the sort of fight that’ll go a long way in solving that riddle. If Ortiz can defeat Evans, or give him three rounds of a highly contested affair, he’s a winner. Another three round war with Ortiz, no matter the outcome, will result in more headlines about Tito’s resurgence than Evans still being one of the top five in the division.
The pressure is on Evans now as nothing short of a dominant win over an old rival will keep the headline away from his opponent.
