BOX OFFICE FORECAST: Final Destination 5 To Be Tops This Week

Four new mainstream releases are being ushered into theaters this second weekend of August. Final Destination 5, The Help (which was formally released on Wednesday), 30 Minutes or Less, and Glee the 3D Concert Movie all hit the big screen, and with the exception of The Help look to target teenagers first and foremost. Which makes sense. Summer is winding down and school is about to start; Hollywood wants to squeeze every last bit of disposable income out of their greasy palms before they learn how to solve a quadratic equation.

But with their entry into the marketplace, it means less eyes will be glued to comedies like Friends with Benefits and The Change-Up. Oh, and you also have Cowboys & Aliens which was a mediocre mash-up that couldn’t be a good standalone western or sci-fi film if it tried.

Last week’s number one, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, outperformed expectations with a $54 million gross. Some had pegged it to net an opening of $38 million at most. With some of the bigger theater chains reserving at least two screens for Final Destination 5‘s opening, as opposed to a singular screen for Glee, look for the fifth entry in the horror franchise to come close to matching the opening weekend numbers of the previous installment The Final Destination (yes, I know there isn’t a number four present in its title – don’t ask). Considering that the film has been getting more than a 50/50 split from critics (our own Robert Saucedo seemed to dig this latest DTM = Dead Teenager Movie) that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. These are geared for the teenage crowd and horror films and franchises seem to be front loaded to begin with. The last one managed a franchise best $186 million worldwide. Even the least successful in the series, Final Destination 2, finished with $90 million.

Since The Help opened on Wednesday, its weekend numbers could slip. Still, the beloved book of book clubs and Oprah fans should be able to have a slow build of success all the way through August and into September. You can bet that older audiences who want to avoid the riff-raff at night will take in showings in the middle of the week and allow the dramedy some consistent numbers.

30 Minutes or Less‘ arrival comes just as restricted comedies have started to peter out. It fails to capture the edge that Zombieland had a few years ago and should make around $45 million overall. Consider it a sophomore slump for director Ruben Fleischer. I’m sure he’ll knock his next project (Gangster Squad) out of the park. He better, because with the amount of talent involved (Sean Penn, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, etc.) you know studio Warner Bros. would just love to have another gangster-type film get some Oscar love.

So now we get to the short straw only for it to be Glee the 3D Concert Movie. As a hit series on Fox, the high-school set comedy-musical has already grown long in the tooth. With multiple CD releases, hundreds of thousands of music downloads on iTunes, a spin-off reality TV series/recruitment tool to find new singers (The Glee Project), it’s stretched to the gills and has already peaked in terms of viewers and market saturation. Now it’s on the decline and this 3D release will most likely spell its further demise. Face it, Glee‘s arrival on TV and promotion came at the right time. But this type of release is only for the fans to begin, and isn’t likely going to recruit new “Gleeks.” Still, you just know that its rise in popularity is why Hollywood decided to remake the likes of Footloose and Dirty Dancing.

Now, for my not-so-accurate box office predictions:

10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $6.8 Million