In the business side of the film industry, audience maximization is about bringing in the entire family. The industry phrase “four quadrant” refers to men and women over 25 and under it. The goal is to maximize the audience by bringing in the entire family, not just one segment. It explains a lot as to why many films try so hard to appeal to everyone for a profit as opposed to merely trying to make the best possible film regardless of audience appeal. And with the formal announcement of the UFC on Fox, the big thing being speculated on now is who’ll comprise that first big card on Fox. And for good reason:
The first big UFC card will be the first, last and best chance at convincing a larger audience to follow MMA in general and the UFC in particular.
But it also brings up an intriguing problem for Dana White and company. How do you follow it up without delivering a show that’s not nearly as high profile in talent? And how do you stack a show but without putting every single major drawing fighter on the card, to leave something more for the second and third Fox shows? Easy enough: by making sure to satisfy the four quadrants of nearly every great MMA show.
The key thing is that you can’t overly load up the first show on Fox to the point where it hurts business for the rest of the year. But you also can’t throw out guys who’d comprise the bulk of the card for an “Ultimate Fighter” finale, either. Joe Silva has a tricky situation here as now he doesn’t just have his bosses at the UFC. He now has the brass at Fox to satisfy as well. So he has to balance the line between a card for the ages that effectively wipes out a handful of PPV’s and one that no one would watch as a free TV card. Right now the UFC is still a company that makes the bulk of its money from the PPV market and they’re going to make sure that area of business isn’t gutted for the sake of four televised events.
Fox is not committing to nearly $100 million a year and network broadcasts of the UFC for “UFC: Unleashed” and a series of cards that normally would be carried on the Versus network, either, so a delicate line has to be balanced. So the question remains: Who do you put on a show for the UFC’s debut on broadcast television? Outside of the half dozen or so matches that’ll air on Facebook of young talent and crafty veterans, you’re going to need to sell four fights to bring in the casual viewer.
The first quadrant to satisfy is that of the future world champions. You’re going to need a couple fighters who are strong prospects, maybe a year or two away from challenging for a title. At this point Zuffa brass will be identifying the guys who will be the next Jon Jones (in terms of potential) and this is the perfect place to establish them without feeding them to a champion before they’re ready. Who to place in this spot?
Rory McDonald vs. winner of Pascal Krauss/John Hathaway
This feels like the right fight for the two hour broadcast the UFC is likely to put on. All three men are talented prospects and one imagines two, if not all three, will end up in title contention in the future.
The second quadrant you’ll want to grab is that of the veteran fighter. A couple of fighters who have been around and are names, but not on the way down in their career, will make for a good fight and put another foot forward. This will also help you appeal to your hardcore audience and allow Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg to discuss the evolution of the sport in the past couple years from guys who’ve been there to see it. Who to place in this spot?
Tim Kennedy vs. Ed Herman
Both are colorful personalities and Kennedy’s story, the Army Ranger who fights in his free time, makes this one easy to sell on an undercard. Neither is high enough in the rankings to be needed to draw in crowds but both are good enough fighters that one could end up in the mix for a title shot with another win after this.
The third quadrant you’ll need is a fight with the dreaded phrase “title implications.” Leading up to your main event, you’ll want a fight that’ll determine (or get close to determining) the next challenger for a world title. You’re going to have to burn an important fight that could headline a PPV, or be the co-main opposite a bigger fight. Who to place in this spot?
Loser of B.J Penn/Carlos Condit vs. Loser of Georges St. Pierre/Nick Diaz
Most likely you’re looking at Nick Diaz vs. Penn or Condit, both of which could be great fights, but GSP after losing his belt against Condit or a third time against Penn are compelling matchups. Condit, Penn and Diaz are always in exciting fights and a combination of two of them to get back in the title hunt will make for some fireworks.
The last fight quadrant to satisfy, and the only way to headline your first event, is going to be with a title fight. There’s no other way to headline your first foray into broadcast television. Who to place in this spot?
Winner of Cain/JDS vs. Alistair Overeem
There’s something about a ring announcer talking about the “Heavyweight Champion of the World” that sends chills down the spine. Nothing feels bigger than when the heavyweight champion, the baddest man on the planet, is defending his title. And who better to challenge the winner of the top two heavyweights in the world than the man proclaimed to be in their company? If Cain wins you have a great story about the son of immigrants who worked his way to the top of his profession. If JDS wins you have a narrative about a champion from the sport’s birthplace. Either way the matchup against Overeem is a main event but not one that’ll be expected to draw a million buys on PPV in the near future.
Neither is established as a draw outside of hardcore fans and what better way to do so than on Fox? Cain and JDS are both talented fighters who have matured through the UFC. Overeem is the reigning world champion of K-1 and an MMA world champion himself in two companies. Whoever wins becomes an instant star.
