Ultimate Fight Night 25: Shields vs. Ellenberger Preview Part One: Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Previews, Top Story

Like so many fights on this card the betting line that is currently live (MacDonald +235) is far more lopsided, in my opinion, than it deserves to be. I get that people like Alan Belcher (16-6) and view him as an actual, well, talent who, despite his 16 month stint on the bench, can still make a charge towards Anderson Silva’s title. I’m not one of those people, in fact, I don’t even see him getting back his opponent, Jason MacDonald (25-14), this Saturday night. We could, if we wanted to, point at the very recent example of Luke Rockhold as somebody who came back after an insane layoff and looked sharper and more dangerous than ever. But I would counter and remind you that Rockhold had shoulder trouble whereas Belcher is coming back from a detached retina. It’s a dangerous condition that required immediate surgery for him and nearly ended his career. Plus it is not something you ever fully recover from and is an injury that has been able to very successfully wage psychological warfare on the fighter who had it.

In MacDonald he finds somebody who has never bee mistaken for a contender. His record is kind of ugly and his performance inside the cage has always been an up and down affair. At 36 age is a factor for him and I do wonder if his left leg will ever be 100% sturdy again after the UFC 113 break. But we should remember that that freakish break is the cause of his only loss in his last five fights and that in his comeback fight at UFC 129 he steamrolled Ryan Jensen and submitted him in just over 90 seconds. He’s not stupid enough to sleep on Belcher’s ground game but at the same time he knows that ultimately he wants this to be a grounded fight. If there is an established MMA choke out there MacDonald has it in his arsenal and has more than likely used it to secure victory at some point. He’s also outmatched physically so he’ll have to utilize technique and game plan to come out ahead.

I will admit to possibly being overly cautious when it comes to guys returning from lengthy stays on the bench and I know that I’m going against the grain by picking against Belcher but to me he just has too many flaws and a guy like MacDonald knows how to exploit them. Jason Day, loser of 5 out of last 6, not only knocked Belcher out but also dominated him from bell to bell. And all it takes is one slip up from a rusty Belcher and MacDonald will put him to sleep.

Jason MacDonald via 2nd Round Submission