Ultimate Fight Night 25: Shields vs. Ellenberger Preview Part Five: Bettor Breakdown

Bout: Court McGee (-165 Favorite) vs. Dongi Yang (+135 Underdog)
The Bet: Bet on Yang Dongi defeating Court McGee (Bet $10 to win $13.50)

This is the perfect underdog situation; why the odds aren’t even is baffling to me. To my knowledge, the only reason why the bookies are favoring McGee in this bout is solely because he is “undefeated” in the UFC, finishing his opponents in two consecutive fights. The fact that Dongi Yang lost by decision, a very close one might I mention, is the only blemish on his record. Yang returned to the octagon the following year and knocked out his opponent in impressive fashion. Court McGee doesn’t really adapt to situations well, he just sticks to his game plan and makes it work. Yang, on the other hand, adapts to any situation he’s in and that will help him in a fight against a “grinder” like McGee. Yang is no stranger to the ground at all, and he is the more strategic striker in this bout. Throw in the fact that McGee is coming back from a knee injury that put him on the shelf for a year and you’ve got an easy decision to make. Take advantage of the bookies just looking at Wikipedia to decide the odds for this bout and place some money on Yang.

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Keep a record of your past bets.Keeping a record of your past bets is something that will really help you out. You can document your bets in anything from a little black notebook you can keep in your back pocket to a Microsoft Excel sheet. The categories you should record is the situation (Example: Yang Dongi over Court McGee), the odds, the amount of money you bet and how much money you won off that bet. Whether it’s because you want to track how much money you are up/down or if you want to notice if you are developing a reoccurring pattern when it comes to your bets, these documents can aid you in the long run.

Keep the betting to a minimum during free UFC events.
Free UFC events on Spike TV, VERSUS and now FOX is a win-win for the promotion and diehard fans. Free events is basically a long infomercial for the UFC pay-per-view; it gets the casual watcher’s attention and tries to draw the customer to buy the next event. For the diehard fan, you get to save the $60 you’d spend on a high-definition broadcast and use that money towards gas or lunch for the following week. When it comes to free events, keep the betting to a minimum. Maybe bet $15 or $20 and use the potential winnings to get yourself even more gas or to treat yourself to a couple of drinks the next time you have to drop the big money on another UFC PPV.

MMA Math is unreliable and you should never consider it as a factor when betting.We used math when it came to solving arguments about who would win dream boxing matches or MMA matches. It’s the classic “ABCA” theory. The formula is as followed: “Fighter A beats Fighter B. Fighter B beats Fighter C. Therefore, Fighter A can and will beat Fighter C”. Although math is often reliable, there are too many variables in mixed martial arts that affect the outcome and they will make the previously mentioned formula unreliable. If it was reliable, BJ Penn would have defeated UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94. (BJ Penn beat Matt Hughes. Matt Hughes beat Georges St. Pierre, but Georges St. Pierre beat BJ Penn.) Of course you’ll want to bring up fight history while studying for a bet, but don’t make it your only factor.
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Bout: Jake Shields (-185 Favorite) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+155 Underdog)
The Bet: Bet on Jake Shields defeating Jake Ellenberger (Bet $10 to win $5.41)

The free event is keeping your pockets a little more padded and you have some extra cash to spend throughout the week… now is the time to bet on a favorite. It’s not often I suggest that you bet on a favorite because the risk of double the money you are trying to gain just sounds foolish to me in a sport like MMA where anyone has a puncher’s chance. Jake Ellenberger has been on quite the tear lately, winning three of his last four bouts by knockout. It’s impressive, but this is his first step into the deep end of elite competitors in the UFC. I understand that Shields’ style may not be the most exciting to watch but he’s got a takedown drag-em-out style that very few can survive. Ellenberger is an aggressive fighter with dangerous standup skills but it’s proven that he tends to flounder on his back. If Jake Shields can take Dan Henderson down, I don’t think he should have any trouble taking Ellenberger down. I wouldn’t bet on this fight ending inside the distance, but I do think it’s safe to go with Shields here for a little extra cash.

**Disclaimer: The betting advice in this column is only a suggestion. If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem, please visit www.ncpgambling.org. Remember, play with patience and intelligence or don’t play at all.**