2 Guys NFL Week 3 Picks and Preview

Detroit Lions+1 at Dallas Cowboys

Fitta’s Take: This spread was originally at 6.5 but has dropped fast since one may assume people like Lions in this situation. I really don’t know how you couldn’t. I’ve thought of every possibility how Dallas could win this year. Unless of a fluke or detrimental injury, it cannot happen. Lions are red hot right now, while Cowboys are limping into this game. Lions’ defense of line should be easily able to cause havoc on Tony Romo, because Cowboys’ o-line is weak and inexperienced. And on the other side of the ball, Lion’s offense should be able to really shred Dallas’ weak secondary. Fortunately for that secondary, they haven’t had to face top-notch QBS until now. If they did, they could be looking at 0-3
instead of 2-1. Although this game is going to knock them down to .500, creating a lot of panic in Dallas. Tony Romo might be one of the toughest QBS in the game and might have more passion than most, but one day reality has to sink in and hit Jerry Jones in the face saying the truth and that is Tony Romo simply isn’t great nor will he ever be great. In fact, this entire team isn’t great – and until they fix that, they’re just a mediocre team whose constantly over hyped.

Fitta’s Pick: Detroit Lions+1

Glazer’s Take:  As good as Romo is right now, he has no offensive line.  Without that, he was at risk to the Redskins who, while good, have nowhere near the pass rush of the Lions.  Sure the Dallas defense will keep them in it, but with the Lions getting 1 and winning outright, it won’t matter.  Calvin Johnson on one bomb along with some great defense and good ball control will be enough for the win for Detroit here.  Also, don’t be surprised if Romo has to go out due to injury here.  If you got your bet in a 6.5, you’re loving life right now.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Detroit Lions +1
New Orleans Saints-7.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Fitta’s Take: The spread is a bit high, but rightfully so. Nobody can stop New Orleans’ offense right now. Furthermore, if anyone is going to stop them, it’s not going to be a Jack Del Rio team; that’s for sure.  I really like what the rookie is doing for the Jags already, though. Just by watching him, you can tell he has elite written all over him already. However, he still needs to grow and mature; Jaguars’ defense isn’t as good as Saints’ defense is. Expect Saints to confuse him and get some easy turnovers and expect Saints to score on nearly every drive.

Fitta’s Pick: New Orleans Saints-7.5

 

Glazer’s Take:  The spread is really low for these teams.  The Jags, with their young and/or terrible QBs won’t be able to handle the Saints blitz.  The Saints can put up points on a good defense, on any defense, and will, of course, do so again.

 

Glazer’s Pick: New Orleans Saints -7.5

San Francisco 49ers+9 at. Philadelphia Eagles

Fitta’s Take: Eagles are going to be hungry after losing to straight games after being projected to be the dream team. It really seems like they’re buying into their own hype, as they’re comparing themselves to the
Miami Heat. What sucks about this the most is their coach isn’t a cocky or bad guy. In fact, he’s the opposite. Andy Reid is a really great coach who hasn’t had luck yet in the post-season. Whether it’s with Eagles or another team, he deserves to win a ring for his contributions to the NFL. This isn’t the year I don’t believe, though. The Eagles don’t look that impressive to me. They’re are too many flaws in their depth-chart. The two biggest are their defense stopping the run and
Michael Vick, who has struggled this year and hasn’t managed to stay healthy. Frank Gore should have a field day running on this weak defense. However, Eagles will eventually stick more men in the box,putting the game into Alex Smith’s hands. Expect Eagles to win a close one here.

Fitta’s Pick: 49ers+9

Glazer’s Take: Are the damaged Eagles going to blow anyone out right now?  The 49ers have a very good defense that can at least frustrate the banged up Eagles and their bad line.  That leaves us with a defensive game, and since defensive games are rarely high scoring, I’d usually take the points… but! Well, the 9ers can’t handle wideouts, which the Eagles have plenty of, no matter who’s throwing.  Alex Smith is terrible at pressure, which the Eagles bring plenty of.  And the Eagles are getting killed on the ground, and the 9ers are mediocre there.  With something to prove, they will surprisingly cover.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Eagles -9

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams+2.5

Fitta’s Take: Rams aren’t as bad as you think they are and Redskins are coming off a tough loss. A desperate Rams team at home getting points sounds pretty good in this situation, plus the fact Redskins had a short week.

Fitta’s Pick: St. Louis Rams+2.5

 

Glazer’s take:  Redskins coming off a short week and tough loss surely seem primed to fall back to the pack, but they won’t here.  The Rams have show one thing over the course of the early season – they do not have the offensive weapons to hang with any decent defense.  If the injured Giants were able to handle them, and they’re pretty much dropping everything Bradford throws at them without a running game, the Redskins can keep this low scoring, play into their gameplan, and win.  The Rams also can’t handle the run –a  problem against a pound-it-out offense like the Skins.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Washington Redskins – 2.5

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (PK)

Fitta’s Take: I said before the season started that the Titans would be a solid football team. Aside from them forgetting to show up against the Jags, they’ve been just that. They’re becoming an unsung complete team who has the ability to do just about anything. Never fall asleep on a sleeper team. On the flip side, Browns are lucky to be in the spot
they’re in right now. They haven’t shown enough of anything to be considered a threat. A 5-11,6-10 year is bound to happen to them. Although they have home field advantage against a team that has shown inconsistencies this year in some departments (a la the first game), there is nothing there for me to take the Browns’ side on this game.

Fitta’s Pick: Titans

 

Glazer’s Take: The Titans might still win their division.  Chris Johnson is too talented to play like this all year, while the Browns are just mediocre.  In fact, I struggle to really think of a spot besides special teams the Browns are better than the Titans.  Hasslebeck should be able to handle the Browns pass-rush and the Titans need the win after last week, so they will simply handle a lesser team.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Titans

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals+3.5

Fitta’s Take: Who is everyone picking? The Bills. Why? Because they’ve heard how great they’re comeback was against the Patriots. Who is losing? Everyone who takes the Bills. Taking the Bills in this situation is a rookie mistake. If anything, don’t touch it. If you want to make a risky but pro-skilled bet you take Bengals in this situation. Think
about it – the Bills are hearing how great they are – and most likely as unsuccessful as they’ve been in past year, they’re believing their own hype. Meanwhile, Bengals have been silent and focusing on their goal of the week – beating the Bills at home. What makes this pick easier is getting the points and seeing the Bills travel on the road where they haven’t been the last two weeks while the Bengals play their second straight home game.

Fitta’s Pick: Bengals+3.5

Glazer’s Take: The Bills would be due for a letdown, but they match up just a bit too well with the Bengals for me to worry about that.  The Bengals can pressure the ball, but Fitzpatrick has excellent coverage, and the run game has been top notch.  No, to win here, the Bengals are going to have to score, and it remains unclear how they’ll do that against a Bills team that doesn’t pressure the quarterback, but can force some turnovers.  If Tom Brady had trouble not getting picked against the Bills, Dalton will have trouble.

 

Glazer’s Pick: The Bills -3.5
Minnesota Vikings-2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

Fitta’s Take: Vikings are a frustrating 0-3, while the Chiefs are bad 0-3 team. All Vikings have to do is finish this game. Going up against the Chiefs might not be hard to do so. Don’t let their close game against SD fool you. They’ve had their way with SD for a while now, so a close game wasn’t out of the imagination.

Fitta’s Pick: Vikings-2.5

Glazer’s Take: The Vikings play everyone close, then lose.  Well, those were really good teams that was happening with.  The Chiefs at this point are not a really good team and the Vikings are flat out much more talented and significantly better.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Vikings -2.5
Carolina Panthers+6 at Chicago Bears

Fitta’s Take: Bears need a big win. Here is a perfect place to rebound and get it. They should win this one easily at home.

Fitta’s Pick: Bears-6

 

Glazer’s Take: I really want to take the Panthers here, but Newton will turn the ball over against the Bears defense.  He will have terrible field position.  Can he overcome that?  Usually, he has a shot, but this is a prideful veteran Bears team playing for their season at home.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Bears-6

Pittsburgh Steelers+3.5 at Houston Texans

Fitta’s Pick: Everyone loves Texans it seems. Well, except me. I like the Steelers in this game. I don’t care how poor they match up or how big Andre Johnson is going to be against the weak secondary or how Texans are going to be
able to get to Big Ben or even how poorly they played against the pathetic Colts….the Steelers play games ugly but close (albeit the Ravens this year). I expect them to do just that – and at the very least – cover the spread.

Fitta’s Pick: Steelers+3.5

 

Glazer’s Pick: The Steelers are still too good for the Texans.  The Texans can’t pressure Ben enough to take advantage of the Steelers’ weak offensive line and can’t cover Mike Wallace downfield enough to stop the offense, particularly if the Steelers get the running game going.  It’s also notable that the Steeler D, particularly Polamalu, will have something to prove… not a good time for the Texans.

 

Glazer’s Picks: Steelers +3.5

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks+4.5

Fitta’s Take: Falcons haven’t impressed me one bit this year. No, their win at home wasn’t impressive against an Eagles team who threw the game away in case you were wondering. Seattle is a tough place to play and Falcons seem out of whack once they have to travel. So the points and home are the winner here.

Fitta’s Pick: Seahawks+4.5

Glazer’s Take:  I’ve been telling Fitta every week that when in Seattle, this has been an elite Seahawks team.  Now, without Hasslebeck, I don’t expect them to be as good, but getting 4.5?  I think they can cover that, even if it’s on a backdoor score.  The Falcons are a far, far better team, mind you.  If Michael Turner goes off, well, then you lose this one, but Seattle is good enough at playing within themselves and keeping this close that they’ll at least cover.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Seahawks +4.5
New York Giants-1.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Fitta’s Take: Tough game to pick. It really could go either way. I think this is one of those games where it’s so close that the slightest edge helps – that being home field advantage. Not to mention that the Giants are always known to shoot themselves in the foot with stupid mistakes. A noisy crowd can always do that.

Fitta’s Pick: Cardinals+1.5

 

Glazer’s Take: I’m ready to just say the Giants are way, way better than I thought.  The Cards don’t have the defense to really trouble the physical Giants, while the banged up Giants have been dominating and bullying everyone with their defense, somehow.  The Cards probably aren’t good enough to stop that, especially on offense where they can’t cover top receivers like Hakeem Nicks.  On D, Kolb throws off his back foot too much and will get himself into trouble.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Giants -1.5

Miami Dolphins+7.5 at San Diego Chargers

Fitta’s Take: If Miami has any dignity left, they play Chargers close here and try to pick up a win. If they get blown out, they better pack it in and Tony Sparino better pack his suitcase and Chad Henne’s as well. Come on Miami, you’re better than 0-4. Show it against the San Diego Overrated Chargers.

Fitta’s Pick: Dolphins+7.5

 

Glazer’s Take: The Dolphins can and will run on the Chargers, but it won’t matter.  Whatever else the Chargers are, they have an elite quarterback in Phillip Rivers.  The Dolphins neither have much of a secondary or can really put pressure on a QB.  Rivers, with plenty of time, will make the Dolphins have to pass.  His team can’t defend the run, but is good against the pass and, well, Henne under pressure has been a problem for the Dolphins.  I’d be a lot more comfortable without that half-point against me, but the Chargers are still the pick here.

 

Glazer’s Pick: San Diego Chargers -7.5

Denver Broncos+12.5 at Green Bay Packers

Fitta’s Pick: No love for the Broncos I see. Hmm, interesting. Boy, I hate big spreads in the NFL. Teams are so evenly matched in the NFL despite what the records say – so anything could happen. I’ll go with the Packers only because they’re the much better team and two touchdowns doesn’t seem that hard to do when you have so many weapons on offense.

Fitta’s Pick: Packers-12.5

 

Glazer’s Take: The Packers are better than the Broncos in absolutely every way, but this will be closer than most think.  First, this Packer team wins, but they get conservative with a lead and will let the Broncos stay a bit closer than most would like.  Further, without Nick Collins and with both Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews banged up, the Broncos offense should be good, particularly once the Pack have a big lead and stop risking their most important defensive contributors.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Denver Broncos +12.5

New England Patriots-5 at Oakland Raiders

Fitta’s Take: Rebound anyone? Yeah, of course. Patriots lose a heart breaker and now are challenged by a team. What happens – you know what happens so don’t be shocked when it happens. The Patriots are going to blow out the
Raiders. You don’t think Bill and that defense is tired of hearing about McFadden? Remember last year when the Browns beat the Patriots? Do you also remember what happened the next week? Patriots steam rolled the Steelers. Good luck Raiders; you’ll need it once a pissed-off Patriots team comes rolling in.

Fitta’s Pick: Patriots-5

Glazer’s Take: I finally pick the Pats for them to lose outright.  Such is life.  I think I’ll stick with the now angry, supremely talented team over the Raiders who seem to be congratulating themselves a bit too much for beating the Jets.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Pats -5
New York Jets+3.5 at Baltimore Ravens

Fitta’s Take: This spread says trap, but aren’t the Ravens a better version of what the Jets are? So why should they have any problems beating them? I don’t know other than maybe Rex Ryan has done his homework.

Fitta’s Pick: Ravens-3.5

 

Glazer’s Take: These are two superficially similar teams, in that they both have a strong defense and prefer the run, but the way their defenses are strong is very different.  The Jets are great against the run (hasn’t shown statistically this year, but give it time) and rely on Revis against the pass, particularly downfield.  That works to their advantage, since Flacco has a big arm, and the rest of the Jets, particularly the excellent linebackers can stuff the run and the check down game.  The Ravens are great at pass rush and the run, but struggle against the pass, especially mid-yard gains.  Ladanian Tomlinson should, then get a lot of burn here.  In the end, the Ravens are a more talented team, the Jets a better coached one, and in a defensive battle, I’ll take the team with the better coaching to expose opponent weakness.

 

Glazer’s Picks: Jets +3.5


Indianapolis Colts+10 at TampaBay Buccaneers

Fitta’s Pick: Arguably the worst team in the NFL gets a Sunday night game and now a Monday night game? Couldn’t they switch games to make them more watchable? Does anyone want to see a 10 point spread MNF game? I didn’t
think so. Colts only covered their spread because the Steelers played some sloppy football. If they took a knee every play on offense after they built their 10 point lead, they would’ve easily won the game and possibly covered.

Fitta’s Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-10

 

Glazer’s Pick: Okay, the Colts looked decent last week, but now without Collins, well, the Buccs should announce they’re a playoff contender with a huge win.  Rookies are, generally, notably bad on Monday nights.

 

Glazer’s Pick: Buccs -10.
Glazer’s Locks of Week 3:  The best bets of the week, in my ever so humble opinion, are the Vikings and the Saints.

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