Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
Week 5 was one of those weeks where many folks’ Survivor Pools were blown to shreds by stepping on one of two proverbial land mines. First, the Giants suffered an inexcusable loss to the Seattle Seahawks that is likely to hurt their chances of making the playoffs (have you seen their schedule?). Then, the Texans were out-paced by the Raiders in Houston, a game I was happy to be on the right side on against the spread, at least.
I was very happy to maintain a 2-1 record in my locks of the week and an 8-5 record head to head, though I lingered just below .500 ATS, finishing 6-7 for the week.
Oh, and a huge THANK YOU to the Detroit Lions’ defense for preventing what would have been a meaningless touchdown in the last seconds of Monday Night Football that would have been an awful backdoor cover for the Bears for those of us who picked the Lions -5.5.
Man, that was close…
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 5 BREKADOWN
WEEK 5 ATS: 6-7
WEEK 5 LOCKS ATS: 2-1
WEEK 5 H2H: 8-5
WEEK 5 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: LOSS (Seahawks over Giants)
THIS SEASON ATS: 40-37
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 11-4
THIS SEASON H2H: 52-25
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
Giants (Week 5, Loss)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 6 PICKS
Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().
Buffalo (+3.5) over NY GIANTS — Just like with the Eagles-Bills showdown last week, I am simply going with the better team here by picking Buffalo to win outright. The Giants are certainly going to be more focused and very intense following that trap game loss to Seattle, but I still like this very poised Bills team to keep shining in the underdog role, especially with a 3.5-point cushion. Bills win 27-23
Philadelphia (+0.5) over WASHINGTON — I’ve liked the Redskins all season and coming off their bye week, Washington will definitely try to demoralize the paralyzed Eagles right out of the gate. With that said, the Eagles know deep down that if they drop to 1-5, they will have a near impossible mountain to climb in terms of making a run at the playoffs later this season. Andy Reid usually shines when his back is completely up against the wall, and I think he pulls out all the stops one more time to win an overtime nail-biter. Eagles win 31-28 (in overtime)
San Francisco (+4.5) over DETROIT — Both Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh have done phenomenal jobs leading their teams back to real football relevance so far this season. I can definitely see “Megatron” Calvin Johnson having another huge game, but I think the Niners keep it close thanks to Frank Gore moving the chains consistently. Lions win 24-20
*LOCK IT UP: GREEN BAY (-14.5) over St. Louis — I foolishly bet against Aaron Rodgers last week, and I just won’t make that mistake again anytime soon. The Rams are coming off their bye week, but I really think that won’t matter in this one. Packers win 34-12
*LOCK IT UP: Carolina (+4.5) over ATLANTA — As long as Cam Newton keeps covering, I’m buying into the Panthers against the spread. It also helps that I am cold on the Falcons right now, though I do think Atlanta pulls out the home win here. Falcons win 21-19
Indianapolis (+7.5) over CINCINNATI — I couldn’t get a good read on the Bengals or Colts last week, so it’s just as well that they are playing each other this Sunday. Andy Dalton has worked hard and demonstrated comeback ability behind center and I think the Bengals will win comfortably by all indications, except that Indy will somehow manage to stay within one score when all is said and done. Bengals win 20-13
PITTSBURGH (-12.5) over Jacksonville — The Steelers rebounded last week against a very good Titans team. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew ran the ball relatively well, but the Jaguars still came up short at home against Cincinnati. That doesn’t bode well for Jacksonville during this trip to Pittsburgh, especially with Big Ben seemingly back on track. Steelers win 35-6
BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston — The Texans could prove me wrong here, but I think the vaunted Baltimore defense is going to blast Matt Schaub and contain Arian Foster, especially with Texans’ star wideout Andre Johnson sidelined this week. Ray Rice will have a big day and the Ravens will roll in my gut feeling pick of the week. Ravens win 28-17
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: OAKLAND (-5.5) over Cleveland — I simply like what I’ve seen from the Raiders and think the Browns come out flat, so… Raiders win 31-13
*LOCK IT UP: New Orleans (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY — The Bucs are better than they showed last week, but I have a feeling Drew Brees and the Saints are about to heat up down south. Saints win 34-16
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Dallas — I just can’t bet against Tom Brady right now, although a healthy receiving corps against a shoddy New England secondary may be enough for the Cowboys to cover coming off their bye week. Still… Patriots win 30-21
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
CHICAGO (-3.5) over Minnesota — I don’t trust either team very much right now, but this point spread doesn’t really swing me strongly in one direction. I think Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will both run like crazy and cancel each other out, and so the difference here just might be Robbie Gould’s reliable leg. Bears win 22-14
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Miami (+7.5) over NY JETS — When the Dolphins and Jets play each other on Monday nights, strange things can and do happen. The football gods weave magic once again, and the Jets give it everything they have to squeak by late. Jets win 23-20
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
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