Sliced Spread: 2011 NFL Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions

Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.

In Week 10 I continued a solid trend by going 10-6 both ATS and H2H, which I’ll take to the bank given some of the funky things that happened last Sunday especially.

Of course, I also went 1-2 in my locks of the week and lost my H2H Survivor pick when the Eagles simply mailed it in for the season by losing outright to suddenly hot Arizona Cardinals (although that trend will end in a wimper this week, but more on that in a minute).

The only thing left for Philly fans now is to hope they can play spoiler in the NFC East, and, well, they can always look forward to seeing Jonathan Papelbon in a Phillies uniform come spring training!

For now, however, let’s table the crosstalk and refocus on the below slate of NFL Week 11 games…

Onto the breakdown!

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 10 BREAKDOWN

WEEK 10 ATS: 10-6
WEEK 10 LOCKS ATS: 1-2

WEEK 10 H2H: 10-6
WEEK 10 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: LOSS (Eagles lost to Cardinals)

THIS SEASON ATS: 81-65
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 18-12

THIS SEASON H2H: 97-49

H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
Giants (Week 5, Loss)
Raiders (Week 6, Win)
Cowboys (Week 7, Win)
Niners (Week 8, Win)
Texans (Week 9, Win)
Eagles (Week 10, Loss)

SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

Home teams are shown in CAPS
Point spreads shown in ().

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

DENVER (+4.5) over NY Jets – The Jets created yet another AFC East hole to dig themselves out of after getting embarrassed by the Patriots on Sunday night. I think the Jets are also in a tough spot this coming week since they now have to forget about their emotionally draining division loss and travel to Denver to clash with the upstart Broncos. I don’t care if Tim Tebow throws 1 pass all game, the Broncos must be doing something right, particularly on defense. Broncos win 24-19

SUNDAY:

Dallas (-7.5) over WASHINGTON – So many people doubted Dallas last week as Buffalo +5.5 was one of the hottest underdog picks of the week. I actually saw that one coming though because the Bills have been trending downward recently, and I feel like the Cowboys are back on track to make waves in the NFC East. They know they must not let up against a rapidly fading Redskins team, and I think Tony Romo and Co. take care of business here on the road. Cowboys win 29-10

DETROIT (-7.5) over Carolina – Yup, the Lions traveled to Chicago and absolutely got smashed in the mouth last week by the surging Bears. Carolina, meanwhile, forgot to show up at home as they also put on a pretty horrible display against the Titans. I’ll take the more talented Lions here in a rebound win at home, especially now that Cam Newton isn’t covering every single spread anymore. Lions win 28-14

*LOCK IT UP: GREEN BAY (-14.5) over Tampa Bay – Why the hell did I pick Tampa last week against a high-powered offensive team like the Texans? I won’t make that same mistake two weeks in a row, so… Packers win 38-9

Oakland (-0.5) over MINNESOTA – The Raiders definitely showed me something by mustering up enough strength on a short week to upend the Chargers last Thursday night. Considering they will be very well rested and Minnesota is playing off a short week, I’m leaning towards the Raiders in what should be a close, tight-knit contest. Raiders win 22-17

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Tennessee – The Falcons don’t usually spit the bit at home all too often, but I honestly blame the awful coaching decision to run the ball on 4th and 1 on the Falcons own 29-yard line against the Saints in overtime more than I do the Falcons’ players themselves. If any team needs to win this week it’s this Falcons team, and I think Matt Ryan comes through for his coach and his teammates to get that bitter taste of defeat out of their mouths. I admit the Titans are good, but… Falcons win 27-20

MIAMI (-1.5) over Buffalo – The Bills just haven’t looked that good to me lately, which is why I’ve been picking against them. And, well, sense that the Dolphins will win a surprising third game in a row in what is now a more mild upset than it would have been three or four weeks ago.  It’s also my gut feeling pick of the week… Dolphins win 23-16

Jacksonville (-0.5) over CLEVELAND – I think the final score here will be very similar if not identical to Jax at Indy last week.  Therefore… Jaguars win 17-6

Cincinnati (+7.5) over BALTIMORE – The Bengals fought hard and almost toppled the Steelers last week. As for the Ravens, we don’t really know which Baltimore team will show up each week, and so I have no choice but to not count on them to pull these kinds of games out at the moment. Bengals win 20-17

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Arizona – The Cardinals have really burned me the past two weeks and so you’d think I’d have learned my lesson by now. Against another opponent I may have gone in Arizona’s direction, but this Niners team is starting to show that they are really something special this season. Niners win 31-21

ST. LOUIS (-1.5) over Seattle – The Seahawks have not won two shockers this season against the Giants and Ravens. I really don’t think they have that many bullets left in their chamber as they continue to try and play spoiler. The fact that the Rams aren’t really a team worth spoiling also makes me think Seattle will have a hard time keeping their energy level and focus up out on the road this week. Rams win 20-13

*LOCK IT UP: CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego – Whether it’s an offensive shootout or a defensive struggle, the Chargers are simply losing steam and losing games. The underrated Bears, meanwhile, are on a pretty impressive roll of late, so I am going to stick with the hot hand and take Chicago as one of my locks of the week.  Bears win 31-21

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

NY GIANTS (-4.5) over Philadelphia – The Giants slipped up out west against a very strong Niners team, but they’ll regain their momentum here now that the Eagles are officially out of NFC East contention and seemingly have nothing left to play for. Giants win 28-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

*LOCK IT UP/H2H SURVIVOR PICK: NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Kansas City – The Patriots are once again finding their offensive groove, and the Chiefs just don’t have the weapons to keep up. Patriots win 38-13

That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.

See you next week – CB.

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