Quick Pick: Dan Henderson (+115) vs. Shogun Rua (-135)
The Bet: Dan Henderson to beat Shogun Rua (Bet $10 to win $11.50)
To add a little excitement to the night, place a small bet on Dan Henderson defeating Shogun Rua. The Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Henderson is riding a lot of momentum into this fight with recent wins Fedor Emelianenko, Rafael Cavalcante and Babalu Sobral. Shogun’s latest victory was against a Forrest Griffin who claims his heart wasn’t 100% in the fight (Forrest’s wife was going into labor hours before the fight started). And for those who are saying that Henderson has something to prove because it’s his return to the UFC, don’t forget he left on his own terms after a huge victory against Michael Bisping at UFC 100.
Study The Patterns Of Your Bets…
Even though gambling is about winning money, you should still do it the smartest and safest way possible! I mentioned in a previous installment of Bettor Breakdown that the best tool a bettor could have (besides money) is a booklet where they record ALL of their past bets. There are multiple reasons why this small book can help you out, but the main advantage of recording your bets is to see if you are developing any patterns in your gambling. Not realizing you make the same type of dumb bet over and over again with little to no success is one of the most dangerous things you can do. These bets could be anything from betting money on underdogs too often to betting on your favorite team every chance you get. At the end of every month, a smart bettor would sit down with a pad and paper and write down all of his faults and try to fix them.
… And Try To Better Your Habits By Limiting Yourself!
Continuing where we left off on the last tip, you should study that pad and paper and try to limit your betting habits. For example, limit yourself to five underdogs, five favorites and three parlays a month. Setting limits for yourself will make you want to look into every aspect and detail of the game/fight to see if you really are making the safest bet possible. I will reiterate this again: Gambling is dangerous enough as it is. Try to make it as safe as possible.
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Bout: Martin Kampmann (+115) vs. Rick Story (-135)
The Bet: Martin Kampmann to beat Rick Story by decision (+185) (Bet $10 to win $18.50)
Props are not the type of bets you would like to make frequently because they are far from a safe bet. When the time arrives to place one though, do plenty of research to make sure the bet you are going to place makes sense. You know that saying “styles make matchups”? In the betting world, there’s a saying that goes “styles make bets”. Kampmann against Story is one of those fights where looking at their fighting styles and records, it’s safe to assume that the bout is going to end a certain way.
Six of Rick Story’s eight fights in the Ultimate Fighting Championship have resulted in decisions. The other two were earlier on in his UFC run where he defeated grapple-favoring Dustin Hazelett by knockout, and Brian Foster by submission (both competitors are no longer with the UFC). It is blatant that Story relies heavily on his methodical, tiresome takedowns to earn points and ultimately bring the bout to its final bell. If that is his strategy walking into the bout tonight, he will have issues implementing his game plan on Martin Kampmann. Kampmann showed brilliant takedown defense against Diego Sanchez at “UFC Live: Kampmann vs. Sanchez”. So if the ground game is neutralized, it’ll stay standing and from what we saw from Story’s bout against Thiago Alves, Rick Story can take BOMBS and keep moving forward.
Based on past events, everything is pointing towards this bout going to a decision. Story relies heavily on takedowns, but Kampmann is great at defending them and making his opponent pay for even thinking about it. Kampmann is a great striker, but Story eats punches and kicks like they’re for breakfast and keeps on attacking. The only way I see this bet going awry is if Kampmann gets knocked out, or if the judges give Story the decision victory for takedowns. It wouldn’t be the first time Kampmann got screwed by the judges.
**Disclaimer: The betting advice in this column is only a suggestion. If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem, please visit www.ncpgambling.org. Remember, play with patience and intelligence or don’t play at all.**
