Welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications.
After going 0-3 on my Thanksgiving Day locks, I knew it was going to be a long week. My two saving graces that I am thankful for, however, are that I did have a solid head to head record (12-4) and that the Jets were able to come back and give me a survivor pick win.
Oh, and my apologies to Aaron Rodgers, I’ll never make that mistake of picking against his Green Bay Packers again this season, at least for now.
Onto the breakdown!
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 12 BREAKDOWN
WEEK 12 ATS: 5-11
WEEK 12 LOCKS ATS: 0-3
WEEK 12 H2H: 12-4
WEEK 12 H2H SURVIVOR PICK: WIN (Jets over Bills)
THIS SEASON ATS: 94-82
THIS SEASON LOCKS ATS: 20-16
THIS SEASON H2H: 119-57
H2H SURVIVOR TEAMS USED:
Chargers (Week 1, Win)
Lions (Week 2, Win)
Steelers (Week 3, Win)
Packers (Week 4, Win)
Giants (Week 5, Loss)
Raiders (Week 6, Win)
Cowboys (Week 7, Win)
Niners (Week 8, Win)
Texans (Week 9, Win)
Eagles (Week 10, Loss)
Patriots (Week 11, Win)
Jets (Week 12, Win)
SLICED SPREAD: NFL WEEK 13 PICKS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Philadelphia (-2.5) over SEATTLE — For both teams, this season is essentially over. As a result, I’m rolling with a more talented Eagles team that just might be holding onto that glimmer of hope that they could still sneak into the playoffs if they run the table. Even if I don’t believe that will happen, it’s enough motivation for me to pick Philly here. Eagles win 21-17
WASHINGTON (+2.5) over NY Jets — The Jets notched an UGLY win at home against Buffalo last week, and the Redskins will be a tough out at home. In my gut feeling pick of the week, the Washington defense stands tall and the Redskins win in a very close upset. Redskins win 21-20
CHICAGO (-7.5) over Kansas City — The Bears will rebound from their trip to the Black Hole and they will simply grind this game out on the ground against the hapless traveling Chiefs. Bears win 19-10
Carolina (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY — The Panthers can’t be fully trusted, but you can say the same thing about the reeling Bucs. I’ll take Carolina in a crapshoot because of Cam Newton alone. Panthers win 23-17
Tennessee (+1.5) over BUFFALO — The Bills suffered a crushing loss to the Jets that really damaged their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Titans prevailed in a tough home win over Tampa thanks to Chris Johnson running all over the Bucs. I expect more of the same from both teams this week. Titans win 24-20
Oakland (+2.5) over MIAMI — The resurgent if not always-winning Dolphins will be very well rested when they face off against Oakland this week. However, I am leaning in the Raiders’ direction because they have won a bunch of close games this year and they just have that intangible winning aura surrounding them right now. Raiders win 26-24
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cincinnati — Troy Polamalu will likely be cleared to play on Sunday, and that will make a huge difference for the Steelers in terms of shutting down Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ offense. I think the Steelers win and cover as a result. Steelers win 27-17
Atlanta (-2.5) over HOUSTON — The Texans have been on fire almost all season long, but with their quarterback situation in dire straits I think the Falcons will fly in and trip them up in this spot. Atlanta also needs this game more to solidify their playoff chances while the Texans can coast to a division win even if they lose this game. Falcons win 23-16
Denver (+1.5) over MINNESOTA – As I said last week, until I am proven wrong otherwise, I am fully aboard the Tim Tebow bandwagon. Broncos win 20-14
*LOCK IT UP: NEW ENGLAND (-20.5) over Indianapolis – Despite what looks to be an astronomical spread on paper, I think the Patriots will cover. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are both on pace to break Dan Marino’s passing record, and the Pats are not usually the type of team to show any mercy to their opponents. Therefore, I can see this one getting out of hand really quickly, and the Patriots will keep pouring it on after this game is already way out of Indy’s reach. Patriots win 52-6
Baltimore (-6.5) over CLEVELAND – The Browns did all they could to upend the Bengals last week and they fell just short. As for the Ravens, Baltimore should be ready to go on the road and beat Cleveland pretty soundly, especially with a few extra days of rest and preparation. Ravens win 24-10
ARIZONA (+4.5) over Dallas – The Cardinals have completely bashed me over the head this season both with their spread-covers and their wins, and so it’s time I throw in the towel and pick them before they can bludgeon me any further. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys historically do not play well in Arizona and it makes me even more of a believer in the Cards this week. Cardinals win 27-24
*LOCK IT UP: Green Bay (-6.5) over NY GIANTS – I am not making the same mistake I made on Thanksgiving Day when I picked against the Packers on the road when they were favored by less than one touchdown. The Giants growing list of injuries coupled with their near-annual swoon has influenced me to lock this one up in Green Bay’s favor. Packers win 38-23
SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5) over St. Louis – The Niners are clearly the class of the NFC West this season. And even though I am not in love with this spread, San Francisco really should take the Rams out of this contest early and keep them at bay the rest of the way. Niners win 31-13
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
*LOCK IT UP/H2H SURVIVOR PICK: NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) over Detroit – Thanks to the Suh suspension the Lions will limp into New Orleans shorthanded on defense, and that is never a good thing when squaring off against Drew Brees. I have a feeling that it’s merely going to be a long night for Detroit while Christmas will come early for the marching Saints and their fans. Saints win 35-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
San Diego (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE – Is this Monday night matchup a clunker or what? I am picking the Chargers almost by default considering I have no confidence in either team, and this might be my most indifferent football pick of the entire year. Chargers win 21-13
That’s it for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
See you next week – CB.
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