Bettor Breakdown: UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem

The Picks: Parlay together Nam Phan (-225), Jon Fitch (-250) and Donald Cerrone (-280) to defeat their opponents.

The Bet: $10 to win $17.44

I’ve talked at length about how dangerous parlaying bets are. If you make it a habit, it will single-handedly become your downfall and will keep you in the red (negatives) for a long time. With that being said, parlays can also be good to you if you’re intelligent. Keep your parlays to once a month and don’t place a bet above ten dollars. It may be enticing to do it twice in one month if you won the first one, but don’t, because the chances of you hitting it again are VERY low.

Nam Phan is becoming a solid fighter and his scientific striking picks his opponents apart. It’s up to him to defend the takedown and submission attempts and to keep it standing. If he can do that, he’s got this fight in the bag. | Despite the fact that he’s had a long layoff due to injury, Jon Fitch is still riding a five-fight winning streak (not including his draw with BJ Penn). Johny Hendricks is a serious threat, but this is a huge step up in competition for him. If Fitch can stick to his bread and butter and smother Hendricks, Fitch could easily add another fight to that streak he already has going. | In the final bout of this parlay, we have Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz going toe-to-toe. Even though this looks like it should be a tough fight to choose a winner in, Cerrone’s all around skills makes it easier to choose the victor. Both Cerrone and Diaz have unorthodox striking and are really good off their backs, but Cerrone’s composure is what’s going to give him the edge on Friday. Diaz’s resiliency will make the bout last fifteen minutes, and you can also expect it to be the Fight of the Night.

Tip 1: If you’re a betting beginner, chances are you will decide most of your bets will be on the heavy underdogs. The idea of betting $20 to win $100 will plague your mind and you won’t be able to escape it. If you can’t avoid that stage at all, try and make it as short as you can. Betting safe is smarter than betting risky. While betting risky pays out sometimes, more often than not, it’ll leave you with dust in your wallet.

Tip 2: The opening lines are always the best times to make your bet. Once everybody starts betting, the bookie will shift the lines to odds that reflect the bets more accurately.

Tip 3: Don’t just bet based on the past. Do research. Fighters are changing aspects of their camp every single fight. Whether it’s what they’re working on (ground game, striking), who they’re bringing in (Pat Barry in Deathclutch), or if they’re changing where their camp is altogether (Miguel Torres going to Greg Jackson) it should all factor into your betting decision.

Situation: Alistair Overeem (-137) vs. Brock Lesnar (+117)
The Bet: Bet on Alistair Overeem to defeat Brock Lesnar (Bet $10 to win $7.30)

Brock Lesnar does not like being punched in the face. I’m not saying he can’t take a punch, because he has never lost by knockout. I’m not saying he can’t deal with being punched, because he went against adversity at UFC 116 and withstood Carwin’s punishment to win the bout by submission. He’s not facing Cain Velasquez or Shane Carwin though. Brock is going up against one of the best heavyweight strikers to fight in the octagon: Alistair Overeem. Just a year ago Overeem out-struck Tyrone Spong, broke Gokhan Saki’s elbow and dominated a K-1 legend in Peter Aerts all in one night.

In a classic “Striker vs. Wrestler” battle, whoever can implement their game-plan first will come out on top. Obviously, every fight starts out standing. Seeing as Lesnar has a tough time defending punches once the initial strike has landed, I’d have to give Overeem the nod in this bout. With two elite fighters in the main event, you don’t want to bet too much money though. Bet enough money for you to care about the bout, but don’t bet so much where you can’t take your date out to a nice New Year’s dinner on Sunday.

**Disclaimer: The betting advice in this column is only a suggestion. If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem, please visit Remember, play with patience and intelligence or don’t play at all.**

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