When it comes to historical relevancy, Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz represent the two missing champions in the UFC welterweight championship history in a way. Condit was the last champion of the WEC before it was absorbed into the UFC and Diaz the last Strikeforce champion and the first WEC welterweight, having vacated both titles for the UFC at differing points in his career. Going into this fight both men had strong claims to be Georges St. Pierre’s next challenger. Condit’s only loss since was 2006 was a split decision loss to Martin Kampmann; Diaz hasn’t lost since a cut forced a stoppage against KJ Noons or alternatively a decision loss to Sean Sherk.
When it comes to ranking the elite of the division outside of GSP, two men in that conversation are Diaz and Condit. And with GSP out until later this year at the earliest, the first UFC welterweight champion not named Georges St. Pierre since Matt Serra had his short lived title reign will be crowned. And it has a legitimate chance at being the fight of the year, having the submission of the year or even the knockout of the year when all is said and done. It might have two of the three as well; it’s going to be very difficult for this to be a boring fight no matter where they go.
Diaz and Condit are easily the two most exciting fighters in the division because they have a similar mentality when it comes to MMA. Both men have eerily similar styles, blending boxing focused styles with strong jiu-jitsu games, but the one thing that stands out about both fighters is the urgency they fight with. It comes down to a similar style, for lack of a better word, and can be boiled down into one thing: Going for finishes is the rule, not the exception, with these two.
Both men finish fights with a high percentage; going to decision is the last thing you’ll see in this fight most likely. Neither man is content to point fight and win the decision. Someone is most likely getting stopped violently as the most likely way the fight progresses is as violent stand up brawl.
Diaz comes into the fight with one of the worst boxing centered style matchups for any fighters. With world class cardio, Diaz throws more punches than any fighter in the division and mixes in power shots with pawing jabs for a “death by a thousand cuts” style of striking. Diaz’s main strength is that his volume never stops; he pesters guys with plenty of weak jabs mixed in with some strong power shots to the point where people wilt. He sets such a brutal pace with his striking early on and pushes it as hard and as long as he can; he has cardio that is almost unmatched in the division that allows him to throw punches with brutal efficiency.
Condit has a similar style to Diaz in this regard but uses more than punches. Diaz is nearly a pure boxer, rarely using leg kicks, and Condit has a kickboxing setup instead of the boxing setup Diaz prefers. Condit varies his striking up much more than Diaz and that might be the key to the fight. How Condit deals with Diaz’s punching style is going to determine whether he leaves with the interim title or not. Look for him to throw a lot of leg kicks to Diaz’s lead leg; Diaz won’t tire but Condit can make it tougher for him to throw the big power shots.
If the fight does go to the ground both men have a radically different approach to the game. Condit is one who uses his BJJ to sweep and initiate the scramble; as soon as he gets on the bottom he wants out as quickly as possible. Diaz is more content to play the guard game; his bottom BJJ game is one of the most lethal in the game. If Condit makes one error on top Diaz can turn that into a fight ender quickly. Diaz hasn’t faced someone with any sort of wrestling credentials since his stint in the UFC; we don’t know whether or not someone with a stifling top game can neutralize Diaz’s ground attack because he’s had some favorable fight matchups in this one regard since.
If Condit takes him down and is content to stay in Diaz’s guard, avoiding anything dangerous, how Diaz reacts will be interesting. Condit isn’t known for this kind of fighting style, as the expected fight from these two appears to be more of a stand up battle than a grappling match, but Condit has shown some solid takedowns in the past against similar opponents. It wouldn’t be all that shocking if he goes to this strategy late.
The key to the fight will be if Condit is effective at taking away the lethalness of Diaz’s weapons. He isn’t going to shut down Diaz’s boxing or BJJ game but he can blunt them and make them less effective. If he can do so, Condit can walk away the winner. If not Diaz is going to put a beating on him similar to Nate’s dismantling of Donald Cerrone.
