When it comes to the careers of Yoshihiro Akiyama and Jake Shields, both have oddly similar paths to their current location on the UFC 144 card in what Vince McMahon would almost certainly promote as a “Loser Leaves Town” match.
Akiyama was supposed to be the next great challenge for Anderson Silva in the same way Jake Shields was supposed to be Georges St. Pierre’s greatest opponent yet. Both debuted in the UFC to split decision wins over top opponents in fights that arguably could have gone the other way, Shields over Martin Kampmann and Akiyama over Alan Belcher. Both fighters would then go on losing streaks immediately thereafter as well. Akiyama lost to Chris Leben, Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping at middleweight while Shields lost a title fight to GSP and then was promptly knocked out by Jake Ellenberger in his first fight after the title shot. Coming into this fight both men are fighting with their backs to the wall; Akiyama won’t stick around in the UFC after a fourth loss and a third loss for Shields could be just as damaging.
Both men have similar styles and come from grappling based backgrounds. Akiyama had a fairly substantial career in Judo in the same way Shields had in freestyle wrestling; neither were legends of that sport but were fairly strong competitors in it. And both have enough boxing in their game to make them lively opponents but neither could be considered proficient enough to survive on it alone.
The key to the fight is going to be who has the more effective grappling. Shields isn’t going to keep this on his feet and turn it into a brawl like Leben did; Akiyama showed off heart and a solid chin in that fight but he was never threatened by Leben in terms of top position. The fact that Leben pulled off a triangle choke to end the fight while Akiyama was on top says a lot and this is where Shields has the advantage. His game plan is going to be similar to his previous fights; he’s going to do everything he can to get Akiyama to the ground as quickly as he can and try to win from there. When Shields is working on top he’s one of the best in the division. If he can swiftly transition to mount he can end the fight quickly, as well. Akiyama hasn’t shown the ability to be good on his back in defense and has to avoid being taken down by the junior college All-American wrestler.
If Akiyama takes it to the ground he will be facing someone who has top notch ability to work off his back. Akiyama has been caught before and his only way of stopping Shields from working his way off the bottom into a submission is to smother him. If he gets top position on Shields his best option is laying and praying his way to a win; Akiyama is talented when it comes to top position game but he’s just sloppy enough to get caught by someone with top notch skills. Leben did it and so could Shields. If he gets top control he’ll need to avoid aggressive posturing and keep Shields from moving into an aggressive half guard. Shields is much more talented on the ground than on his feet, though, and that’s where Akiyama can win the fight.
Sexyama may not be a great striker but his key to winning is to turn this into a sloppy kickboxing match. Akiyama’s striking is solid but unspectacular but is going to be significantly better than Shields. Shields uses his striking to set up his takedowns, mainly using a jab to set up power double attempts as well as a killer single leg drag takedown, and this is where Akiyama can win the fight. He needs to get Shields out of his game and be the aggressor when it comes to striking. Shields is at his best when he’s the aggressor and can dictate the pace and flow of the fight. This is where the Japanese native has to start when it comes to winning: by owning the standup portion in both pace and volume.
Akiyama needs to come out fast to keep Shields from getting into a rhythm and dictating where the fight will end up. If he can turn this into a brawl instead of a grappling match he can win. Jake Shields is a hard guy to finish with strikes but it’s possible; Akiyama has enough power in his hands to get a TKO style finish with a combination leading into unanswered strikes but isn’t going to finish him with one punch or kick. Good combinations will be where the finish comes from on the feet for Akiyama.
Akiyama has another advantage in that Shields’ corner hasn’t been as good helping him to adjust to his opponent as others have. It was glaring in the GSP fight but noticeable against both Dan Henderson and Jason “Mayhem” Miller. For as good a camp as Cesar Gracie has the one thing Shields hasn’t done well is adjusting to an opponent’s changing tactics. It almost got him choked out against Miller and his inability to adapt to GSP cost him that fight as well.
It’s the same thing that cost Nick Diaz the Carlos Condit fight; he never adjusted to what his opponent was doing to counter it. If Akiyama can dictate the pace and make Shields play his game odds are Shields will continue to play it instead of adapting. Shields needs better work from his corner out of the fight if things don’t go his way early on; if this turns into a sloppy brawl and he doesn’t adjust he’s going to lose because his striking isn’t good enough to win him this fight.
The Pick: Shields by Submission, Round 3
