Bettor Breakdown: Jon “Bones” Jones vs. Rashad Evans

The final lines are in. Join us as we talk you through why betting on Rashad Evans seems to be the most intelligent underdog bet at UFC 145.

Situation: Jon “Bones” Jones (-460) vs. “Suga” Rashad Evans (+365)
The Bet: Bet “Suga” Rashad Evans To Win (Bet $10 to win $36.50)

I would like to open up with this: This is a risky bet. Every time Jon Jones is the heavy favorite, the bettors cry foul and think they have an upperhand on the house when they bet big on the underdog, and why wouldn’t they? Who in their right mind would have thought that Jones could manhandle Rua like he did at UFC 128 to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship? Was there any way to predict that Machida would be no match for Jones, and would ultimately end up in a standing guillotine seconds before collapsing to the mat with his eyes rolled in the back of his head? Jon Jones is a freak of nature and there’s no way around it. Every time bettors risk money on the underdog of a Jon “Bones” Jones fight, they regret the fact that the thought had ever crossed their minds. Although, if there is one heavy underdog who could come out on top much to the dismay of the champion, it would be Rashad Evans.

It is safe to assume that Jon Jones will walk into this fight looking to utilize his size advantage as well as his distance in unorthodox striking. Nobody, with the exception of Machida in a couple of flurries, has been able to solve the puzzle that is Jon Jones. His style of fighting is so much different than anybody else’s that it is hard to duplicate it in your training camp. Rashad has the upper-hand here, however, as he has trained with the one and only Jon Jones for years at Greg Jackson’s MMA before leaving the camp and joining Blackzilians MMA. This will give Evans an edge that no other fighter has had before in the opposite corner of Jon Jones.

Jon Jones has also never really faced anybody with the style of fighting that Rashad Evans has. Jones has fought a top-tier wrestler before in Ryan Bader, but Bader seemed out of his element that night and very hesitant to strike or shoot for takedowns. Nobody on Jon Jones’ fight record has the speed, reaction time, counter punching skills, takedown skills or confidence that Rashad Evans collectively possesses.

Rashad Evans has been fighting for the Ultimate Fighting Championship since 2005 and has only lost once (against Lyoto Machida). He has defeated name-brands in MMA like Michael Bisping, Chuck Liddell, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Forrest Griffin and young, talented prospects like Phil Davis. People seem to ignore the fact that Rashad Evans only loss was in 2009 and he’s been on a tear ever since. It’s downright silly to count him out in this fight.

Final Breakdown: In order for Rashad Evans to come out on top, he needs to utilize all aspects of his wrestling skills as well as his goalie-like reflexes. When idly standing, Evans should look to attempt takedowns and press the action, putting Jones’ back either on the cage or on the mat. When on the end of Jones’ unorthodox attacks, he needs to play it safe and not counter punch until he finds a comfortable position to strike from. If he can use this strategy, he should walk out of the octagon with the UFC Light Heavyweight Title and you should end up a lot richer than you started your Saturday.

**Disclaimer: The betting advice in this column is only a suggestion. If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem, please visit www.ncpgambling.org. Remember, play with patience and intelligence or don’t play at all.**

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