Josh Koscheck’s Last Chance at a Title Shot Means Going Through Johny Hendricks at UFC on Fox 3

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When it comes down to UFC tenure it’s odd to think of Josh Koscheck as being one of the more established veterans on the roster in any division. With a handful of fighters retiring this year from before the UFC’s explosion, Koscheck has one of the lengthier tenures of anyone on the UFC roster. It’s odd to think because he’s essentially an “Ultimate Fighter” contestant who managed to keep winning consistently enough to shed the tag, unlike many fighters, but he never hit the heights of someone like Forrest Griffin or Rashad Evans.

Koscheck has been consistently amongst the top welterweights in the world for some time but has faltered twice to current kingpin Georges St. Pierre. And odds are if GSP hadn’t blown out his knee last year he’d never get a shot at a third go-around with the champion. Koscheck is amongst the top five in the division, some could argue that he’s the #3 ranked fighter in the division. He’d be right behind Carlos Condit, and potentially right ahead of Nick Diaz, in the scheme of things but on the outside looking in.

Without GSP’s injury the Edindoro University wrestling champion would be in the same spot many other fighters find themselves in.

Koscheck is to the welterweight division what Rich Franklin is to the middleweights with Anderson Silva and Joseph Benavidez was to bantamweights: a top guy who has had his shot twice and won’t get another for a long time. That’s why the GPS injury is such a unique thing for the division: Koscheck has the potential to get a third chance in a division where second chances are rare. That’s why the fight this weekend with Johny Hendricks could be so pivotal to his career: with a win he could establish himself as a contender to Condit’s interim title in case GSP isn’t able to make a planned comeback this fall.

But it won’t be easy because he’ll be facing someone with a similar background and style … only better.

When it comes to amateur wrestling, few in the welterweight division can match Josh Koscheck’s credentials. Unfortunately the man who can is Hendricks, who had a better NCAA resume than Koscheck. Hendricks actually disappointed many by not pursuing wrestling on the international scene and instead getting into MMA. It’ll be the one area where Koscheck won’t have an advantage in quite some time; this fight isn’t going to be a grappling clinic though. It’s going to be decided on the feet where Hendricks has a fairly substantial advantage in the power department.

Koscheck’s evolution as a fighter has been from being a pure wrestler, trying to find a way to make any fight into a grappling match, into a much better rounded fighter. His striking is primarily a boxing focused attack, using his boxing to set up his ground game, but it’s not like his strikes don’t have any power behind them. Koscheck has dynamite in his hands on occasion and has a history of knocking people out. The same could be said with Hendricks, who has powerful striking to compliment and set up a powerful ground and pound game.

Where the fight will be decided is on the feet; whoever can get the takedown and stay on top will win the fight. Hendricks recently knocked out Jon Fitch, who hadn’t been stopped since before his UFC days by strikes, and Koscheck is going to be weary of getting into prolonged striking exchanges with someone who has as much power as Hendricks. Look for him to try and employ a similar strategy against the Oklahoma State product as he did against British striker Paul Daley. He’ll try and get him in the clinch against the cage and go for trip takedowns, doing just enough to steal the round at the end. If Koscheck is worried about someone’s power in the striking game he’s very good at uglying up a fight and sneaking out the victory.

Hendricks, on the other hand, has to turn this into a brawling kickboxing match. He has to defend Koscheck on the takedown and stay on his feet while maintaining enough distance to throw power strikes. He’ll avoid anything looping that Koscheck can use to set up a takedown attempt; Koscheck has shown in the past that shorter punches like jabs can throw off his rhythm and look for a nuanced boxing approach from Hendricks to set up his big power punches. He’ll win the fight if he can fluster him with solid combinations ending with a left uppercut or a left cross, which also double as his best punches. Koscheck will most likely circle away from Hendricks power side and a key for Hendricks will be to use cage control to get Koscheck moving in towards that left hand.

Prediction: Hendricks by KO, round 2