Five For Fighting – Matchups To Make After UFC on Fox 3 (Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller)

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The UFC finally got it right for a UFC on Fox, for once, as the card from top to bottom delivered one of the better cards of the year. You can read our coverage here as well as on Fox Sports right here. After watching the card, we look at the five most intriguing fights for five winners and five losers from the card.

Winners

Nate Diaz vs. Anthony Pettis – I’d love to see Diaz fight one more time instead of waiting close to a year for the winner of Edgar/Henderson 2, which takes place towards the end of the summer. Diaz and Dana White indicated he’s going to wait for the winner, which is his right, but I’d love to see him fight Pettis before then. Pettis and he are in the same boat in that they’re both waiting for a title shot to open up; instead of waiting they could fight and get a #1 contender. It’d also perhaps be a great fight, as well.

Alan Belcher vs. the winner of Vitor Belfort/Wanderlai Silva – Belcher is close to (if not already) being a Top five ranked fighter in the division at this point. Currently on a four fight winning streak, with another win he could conceivably be on the short list to take on the winner of Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen. With a statement victory over Vitor or Wand you have a guy who could be put on the short list to take on the champion. Depending on timing the winner of Boetsch/Bisping could work as well.

Lavar Johnson vs. Gabriel Gonzaga – Gonzaga’s out of the UFC 146 heavyweight card, unfortunately, but Roy Nelson’s loss could turn into his gain. Gonzaga is the gatekeeper for a prospect, the final test as to whether or not a prospect can move up to a Top 10 ranked opponent. It’d be a fun matchup to see if Johnson’s power and scrambling can keep him from going to the ground against someone who is as deadly with submissions as Gonzaga. And let’s be honest: if Pat Barry can nearly finish him with an Americana than Gonzaga would be licking his chops for this fight.

Johnny Hendricks vs. Carlos Condit – Condit’s waiting for GSP and that’s his right. Nothing wrong with it, too, as he’s been screwed over enough by the UFC in regards to his initial title shot against GSP after the Diaz/Penn fight that waiting for the champion makes sense in a way. If GSP can’t go in November, though, Hendricks ought to be challenging for the interim title. He has wins over Koscheck and Fitch, which only GSP has in concert, and has done enough to merit a title shot. If GSP can’t defend the title in November then Condit/Hendricks for the right to challenge GSP in the early winter makes sense.

Jon Dodson vs. Louis Gaudinot – With the flyweight tournament most likely going to conclude sometime by the end of the year, Dodson and Gaudinot right now are the leading contenders to get the first title shot against whoever wins out between Ian McCall, Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez. The one downside of crowning a champion is that you have to have a contender ready to challenge for the title. Dodson and Gaudinot are world ranked at flyweight coming into this card, as well as before they joined the UFC as part of “The Ultimate Fighter,” and eventually one or both is going to end up as a title challenger. Setting this fight up gives you a title challenger in the wings to the UFC’s first flyweight champion and sets up so that the challenger won’t be whomever hasn’t had a loss lately; Dodson or Gaudinot with two wins is more credible than one or the other. It looks better than the winner of the two semi-final losers getting the first crack in a sort of consolation prize for being 3rd out of four.

Losers

Josh Koscheck vs. BJ Penn – Josh Koscheck has stated he wants big money fights as he winds his career down, at least he said that before GSP got hurt. With the loss to Hendricks he is out of the mix for a while, despite how close that fight is. You can’t push him to the front of the line based on his history because he’s been dominated by GSP twice and there are other, better contenders ahead of him at this point. Penn is looking to come back at 170, as well, and Penn/Koscheck would be a fight that many have wanted. The more ideal fight would be Koscheck/Fitch but both have said they will never face each other; Koscheck and Penn are both way out of the title picture but they still have enough clout to bring in an audience. This could make a nice feature fight on a card that needs boosting.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Clifford Starks – Every time he takes one step forward he ends up taking two steps back. Palhares is vicious with the heel hooks but once he takes another step up in competition he ends up losing. Marquardt knocked him out in vicious fashion as nasty as Belcher did. Time to move back in competition, I think, and both need to regroup.

Pat Barry vs. Matt Mitrione – Mitrione still doesn’t have a fight lined up after the loss to Kongo. Most of the heavyweights in the UFC are tied up for the next couple months and, provided Barry doesn’t have an overly long medical suspension, Mitrione would make sense. You could throw in Brendan Schaub into the mix as well. Mark Hunt, if he loses to Stefan Struve, also provides for another really exciting fight as well. The problem is that the next couple months are using most of the UFC’s heavyweight roster and thus Barry will probably have to wait a while before his next fight. Don’t count out the winner or loser of the Strikeforce Grand Prix; Cormier and Barnett are known quantities to hardcore fans but not as much to the casual audience. Opposite Barry there’d be more interest, of course, and you don’t have to feed them to a contender right away.

Tony Ferguson vs. Efrain Escudero – A battle of former TUF champions, Ferguson looked good against Michael Johnson but outclassed. He still has plenty of ways to go until he gets to be near the Top 10 of the division; he has the potential but still has years of work to do. Escudero just lost a tough fight to Mac Danzig, of course, but isn’t a major step back for Ferguson. My guess is that Ferguson is looking at Escudero or another prospect coming into the UFC.

Jim Miller vs. Takanori Gomi – Gomi saved his job, for the most part, with his last win. But whenever it looks like he could step up in competition he falters. My guess is that Miller would wreck him like any Top 10 fighter would. Miller is slowly getting to the point where he’s an elite level gatekeeper; if you beat him you get a chance to climb the mountain. “When you come at the king, you best not miss” of course but to get a chance to do so you have to go through Jim Miller. Ben Henderson and Nate Diaz both earned shots by beating Miller. Miller then responds by running through the division again until he gets on the cusp of a title shot; time to make another run with the Pride stalwart. Clay Guida, if he loses to Gray Maynard, would be a fit for this slot as could the loser of Lauzon/Etim.