UFC 146 Predictions and Breakdown (Facebook Fights)

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A week after the conclusion to the ill-fated Strikeforce Grand Prix, which featured an alternate winning one half of a bracket and Josh Barnett the other to crown what was supposed to be the “best heavyweight in the world,” the UFC has their own heavyweight only card featuring Junior dos Santos making the first defense of his title.

Lots of questions remain, though, coming in. Does Frank Mir pose enough of a challenge to JDS? Will Dave Herman finally cash in on the potential he showed before his entrance to the UFC? And does Jason “Mayhem” Miller belong in the UFC? I’ll try and answer those below with a breakdown of this weekend’s card from the earliest fights on Facebook through the main event. Time to open with the three bouts airing on Facebook.

Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass

Fight Breakdown: This is actually the most interesting fight on the card to me because you have a fighter who excels at top control and takedowns going against a deadly submission artist. Sass is vicious with his ability to turn bottom position into submission attempt after submission attempt and chains them well because of his ability to initiate the scramble on the bottom. Volkmann excels at preventing this, taking a guy down and just holding him there for an entire round. So far he’s been able to do it to everyone he faces in the lightweight division, currently on the longest winning streak of anyone in the division. The key to the fight will be Volkmann’s ability to prevent Sass from setting up the scrambles and keep his back firmly plastered to the ground. If he can do so he’ll walk away with another victory. If not he’ll be limping back to his chiropractic practice.

Prediction: Volkmann by UD

Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira

Fight Breakdown: Teixeira is a fighter long expected to debut in the UFC for a while, having visa issues preventing him up until this point I believe, and he got a great opponent to start with. Teixeira is a great prospect with a remarkable submission wrestling/BJJ background on top of a wildly successful Muay Thai striking style. Kingsbury is a game opponent but Teixeira is another in a long line of Brazilian fighters coming in with impressive records and styles. The key will be whether he performs like how we expected someone like John Lineker to do at the last UFC on Fox, disappointing many who thought he would come in and just wreck Louis Gaudinot, or if he’ll live up to the hype. Kingsbury is a nice fighter to debut against; he’s remarkably athletic but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. It’ll be interesting to see his progression from the loss to Stephan Bonner to now and Texieira is a nice fighter to showcase it against.

Prediction: Teixeira by submission, 3rd round

Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda

Fight Breakdown: Mike Brown went from being WEC featherweight champion with two decisive victories over Urijah Faber to an afterthought in the division once Jose Aldo dismantled him for the title. Trading wins and losses regularly, Brown is coming off a lackluster decision over Nam Phan and is nearing the end of his career. It’s a shame because he was such a consistently good fighter outside of the UFC for so long that as soon as the featherweight division comes to the big spotlight of the UFC he’s nearly done. And it won’t get any easier opposite Daniel Pineda, a wildly exciting fighter who likes to finish. This fight will be telling on how much Brown has left; if he loses in bad fashion early he might be getting closer to the end than we think. If he can make a go of it, though, then he might have one run left in him.

Prediction: Pineda by TKO, 3rd