Will Cooling may have been a bit Jaiked Up last night while watching UFC 150 but I wasn’t. I still came up with the same scoring for Edgar/Henderson 2 but the one truism that has always holds true reared its ugly head tonight: don’t leave a close fight in the hands of the judges. With the card concluded, and Frankie Edgar looking at moving to featherweight after being in the same spot that Joseph Benavidez was in not too long ago, now it’s time to figure out where he and the rest of the card goes next.
Winners
Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz – Diaz was promised the winner in exchange for winning and I think the UFC holds their promise. It’ll be a barnburner of a fight and Diaz now has 50 minutes of video to work of something he can duplicate in terms of movement against Henderson. Diaz is a gamer and Henderson arguably lost two fights he was credited with winning. Nate is still healthy and Henderson didn’t look like he sustained a major injury during the fight; the UFC’s December Fox card would be perfect as the headliner on top of B.J Penn vs. Rory MacDonald.
Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis – The two are talking trash already and both are now in that “one fight away” category after massive knockout wins over good competition. The one thing right now is Pettis’s health but this is a #1 contender’s fight waiting to happen. Gray Maynard wouldn’t be a shock, either, as now he’s back in the title picture with Frankie Edgar out of it. Pettis is the more exciting matchup and probably the one Zuffa goes with, though.
Jake Shields vs. the winner of Rich Franklin/Cung Le – Shields looked fairly solid and made Ed Herman play his game all night. This wasn’t quite the fighter that was a middleweight champion outside the UFC but the weight class is perfect for him. Shields was a top level welterweight but he just never looked good at it in the UFC; sometimes you grow out of a weight class but not quite grow to fill out in the next one up. Can he be an upper echelon fighter at middleweight? We don’t know. But this was a workmanlike win and he tried multiple times to finish, so it’s not like he laid and prayed to a win. He won’t get a Top 10 fighter based on the fight quality he looked but the winner of Franklin/Le will be a matchup of solid names. If Franklin wants to make another run at a title, especially with Anderson Silva in the twilight of his career, a win here gets him closer to consideration if/when Silva walks away.
Yushin Okami vs. Rousimar Palhares – The fight was expected to happen until Palhares pulled out with a knee injury and it still makes sense. Okami is going to have to put together a Sonnen-like streak to get another title shot after getting wrecked by Anderson Silva in Brazil; he’s still an elite level talent and his stoppage over Buddy Roberts was perfectly acceptable.
Dennis Bermudez vs. Manny Gamburyan – A matchup of two TUF finalists, both guys have good grappling credentials and love throwing big strikes. It’d be a fun fight on the prelims, at least. The thing is right now Bermudez looked good against Brandao and last night but his ceiling hasn’t been fleshed out yet. Gamburyan is a good veteran test but not a jump into deep waters yet.
Losers
Frankie Edgar vs. Dustin Poirier – What do you tell the guy that arguably won his last two fights against the champion and is the #2 fighter in the division? Drop a weight class. Edgar is in the same spot Joseph Benavidez was after his second fight against Dominick Cruz, a close decision many gave to him. I think Edgar makes the move because it’s going to be a long time before he gets another title shot; it’s the downside of the immediate rematch. He’s lost twice in a row, admittedly arguably, and I think a drop to featherweight is something he can make without a problem (he walks around at 155 lbs or so) and is the same size as a good chunk of the bantamweight/featherweight divisions. He’s almost the same size as a handful of the bigger flyweights, as well. And he won’t be gifted an immediate title shot but gets a good fighter at featherweight. Poirier is coming off a big loss as well and would be a good matchup for both.
Ed Herman vs. Riki Fukuda – Herman didn’t look bad against Jake Shields, far from it. But his ceiling looks to be coming into focus after he’s gotten healthy. He’ll be a gatekeeper to the Top 10 in the division, never quite good enough to make the next step into contention but good enough to beat everyone he should. It’s essentially the same spot Tim Kennedy would be occupying in the UFC and that would be the ideal fight if Strikeforce folded today. It won’t, of course, but Fukuda makes sense. Herman is going to take a step back and get a winnable but tough fight.
Melvin Guillard vs. Tony Ferguson – Guillard looked good against Cerrone until he get destroyed. He’s 1-3 in his last four fights, being stopped definitively in all three losses, and I think a step down in competition is what he needs at this point. I’d love to see him go back to Greg Jackson’s camp, as he looked great there and after leaving hasn’t quite looked the same, on top of it but Guillard his ceiling is going to look like he’ll be wasted potential. Guillard is immensely talented and one of the best athletic specimens in the division to go with amongst the best power in his punches. He just takes steps back when he fights elite competition and I think he gets back in line to make another run.
Dustin Pague vs. Nick Denis – Pague’s ceiling is starting to come into focus. He might not ever be a contender, or anywhere near elite status, but he’s a tough fighter who can make a prolonged UFC run for a while. Denis’s still hasn’t come into focus. Unless Pague has another gear we don’t know yet, which might be the case, at this point he’s starting to look like a guy who has that extended UFC run ala Chris Leben but never gets into serious title contention.
Nik Lentz vs. Max Holloway – Both fighters on the card in spectacular fashion and both are guys who are still a handful of fights away from anything meaningful. Makes sense to match them up.
