For Either Good or Bad, Dave Bautista’s MMA Career Trajectory Will Be Known Saturday Night

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One of the plus sides about debuting heavyweight fighters is that sometimes you can glimpse just how good they could be based on their first fight. Smaller fighters tend to take a while to really get established; it’s why someone like GSP took a long time to develop and become arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world. The competition is steeper and better versed in weight classes below heavyweight. The biggest guys on the podium give you the best glimpse into their future early. And this weekend we’ll get to see just how good Dave Bautista will be in MMA.

Bautista, formerly the poster boy for (allegedly) steroid-abusing pro wrestlers during his stint in the WWE, retired from pro wrestling to pursue an MMA career that’s going to begin this weekend on pay per view. Littered on a card of solid UFC castoffs and regional fighters, Bautista is making his debut in the main event against Vince Lucero. And it’ll be the best possible glance into the immediate MMA future of the one-time bodybuilder turned WWE corporate carnie.

Lucero isn’t the first pick for the spot, as career journeyman Rashid Evans was supposed to be fighting Bautista until he violated his parole, but he’s almost ideal. He has a ton of experience, coming in with a record of (), but when you actually look at who he’s fought the reason why he’s been picked to fight Bautista comes into clear view.

He’s a professional tomato can, to use the boxing vernacular, in that he’s good enough to beat the untalented but anyone with a modicum of ability will run through him.

His loss ledger is a who’s who of beatdowns. Tim Sylvia, Eddie Sanchez, Roy Nelson, Lavar Johnson, Tim Hague, Devin Cole and many others. His noteworthy accomplishment was a win over “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 3 finalist Josh Haynes … and … well … that’s about it. His main victories have come over debuting fighters or those who only fought in losing efforts a small amount of times; he was cut after being wrecked by Nelson during his IFL run and has functioned as a warm body for a lot of promoters over the years.

Bautista is being set up to begin his career with a big win and any trouble with Lucero is going to show us how high his ceiling is. The former WWE main event draw has been training fairly regularly, almost signing with Strikeforce in their pre-Zuffa days, and expectations aren’t very high for him. Which is why this fight is going to showcase just what (if anything) he can do in the sport. Expectations are much lower for him than they were for the last two pro wrestling converts from the WWE.

He’s not coming into MMA like Brock Lesnar, who was near the tail end of his athletic peak and a former NCAA wrestling champion. Bautista doesn’t even have Bobby Lashley’s wrestling background from his days in the NAIA. Both came into the sport as fighting neophytes but with a lifetime of muscle memory to guide them from their days in wrestling rooms.

Bautista’s coming into MMA with a lifetime of experience lifting weights and pretending to fight, as well as probably having punched out drunks during his stint as a bouncer, but no serious athletic credentials. He looks the part of a badass, even playing one in a handful of movies, but we don’t know if he can actually be a fighter. You can train all you want but stepping inside a cage with a referee the only thing between you and your opponent, the door locked behind you, can turn any wannabe tough guy into a coward. There’s a reason why there exists guys who wear Tapout t-shirts and “Tapout Guy.”

If he can’t roll over the MMA equivalent of a club fighter in Lucero then he’ll be back in pro wrestling in time for Wrestlemania, begging Vince McMahon for a job. Why? Because losing to Vince Lucero is something guys not long for the sport tend to do.