Happy Thanksgiving week and welcome to SLICED SPREAD, the place on Inside Pulse Sports for weekly NFL picks against the spread, head to head survivor picks, and score prognostications. I have been on a pretty good roll lately, with three straight weeks above .500 against the spread and Week 11 was one of my best of the season as I finished 10-4 ATS. I was very proud of the Cardinals and Browns for proving me right by covering those big spreads, but I am kicking myself for not going with the Jaguars +15.5 against the Texans. Not that Houston couldn’t have covered the big number, but that’s a very tall order in the NFL against anyone.
As we move forward to a pivotal Week 12, we are faced with the always-interesting Thanksgiving Thursday slate of three games on the docket. That can make or break the whole week, so let’s hope for a clean sweep!
Now, onto the picks!
Home teams are shown in CAPs
Thanksgiving Thursday Football:
Houston (-3.5) over DETROIT — Last week was the Texans’ wake-up call. Are the Lions still even awake? Texans win 31-20
DALLAS (-3.5) over Washington — I could have gone both ways on this game, but with Dallas playing Thanksgiving hosts on a short week after gaining a little momentum I just have that feeling that the Cowboys will find a way to win. I am not saying they will blow Washington’s doors off, but they will manage to cover late. Cowboys win 27-21
New England (-6.5) over NY JETS — The Jets proved me wrong in St. Louis last week and finally showed signs of life. Gronkowski’s injury will certainly help the Jets compete, but I still feel like New England is the superior team and that the Pats’ offense will pull away in the second half. Patriots win 38-24
Seattle (-2.5) over MIAMI — The Seahawks just have that spark right now that makes me overlook an early East Coast trip for them. Seahawks win 21-17
Tennessee (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE — Chad Henne, welcome back to the NFL dance. However, with Maurice Jones Drew still likely sidelined on Sunday and the Jaguars still with an atrocious home record, I still see the Titans winning this one relatively comfortably. Titans win 28-17
*H2H SURVIVOR PICK: CINCINNATI (-7.5) over Oakland — Unlike the Seahawks, I don’t trust the Raiders on an early East Coast trip, especially against a Bengals team that has really been clicking well offensively of late. Bengals win 35-13
*LOCK IT UP: Pittsburgh (-1.5) over CLEVELAND — I feel like there is tremendous line value here following the Steelers dreadfully flat performance on Monday Night Football. The Browns might play tough, but I love Pittsburgh’s chances at covering 1.5 points before all is said and done, Charlie Batch and all. Steelers win 20-17
*UNTOUCHABLE SPREAD OF THE WEEK: KANSAS CITY (+10.5) over Denver — The Broncos should destroy the Chiefs, but crazy things happen when a point spread goes above 10 points against a division rival. Therefore… Broncos win 31-23
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over Buffalo — The Colts get lambasted by the Patriots last week. After a blowout like that, I have a feeling the Colts’ pride will come into play for them to play Buffalo as tough as they can on home turf. It will be enough. Colts win 24-17
*LOCK IT UP: TAMPA BAY (+0.5) over Atlanta — Everything seems to be bouncing in Tampa’s favor lately, and since the Falcons don’t really need this game… Bucs win 31-28
CHICAGO (-5.5) over Minnesota — Jay Cutler will mercifully be back for the Bears this week, and that will make all the difference. Bears win 26-20
*LOCK IT UP: Baltimore (+0.5) over SAN DIEGO — Stick a fork in the Chargers, they’re done. Ravens win 34-22
NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) over San Francisco — The Saints have climbed all the way back to .500 and they will NOT let up here. The Niners are obviously impressive no matter who is behind center, but a QB controversy is never beneficial to any team. Drew Brees puts this one on his shoulders and takes it. Saints win 29-24
ARIZONA (-2.5) over St. Louis — If the Rams couldn’t stop the Jets at home, they can’t stop anyone. Cardinals win 20-13
Sunday Night Football:
NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Green Bay — This is easily the game of the week. The Giants had their bye week at the right time while the Packers are faced with their second straight road game. This is the time of year where the Giants are at their most unpredictable, but they will rise up here like the defending Super Bowl Champions they are. Giants win 27-24
Monday Night Football:
Carolina (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA — Andy Reid is as lame duck as lame duck gets. This is the perfect time for the Panthers to finally pick off a team and get a rare win. Panthers win 17-13
That’s all for this week’s edition of SLICED SPREAD.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving and see you next week — CB.
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